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Never said that. What I said was I believe Silver knows the battleground state polls aren't particularly reliable. And because the data isn't reliable... the odds of winning his model predicts are off.
So why doesn't he correct it? He can't. He inputs what he gets from the polling outfits and from some it's garbage in/garbage out.
The polls weren’t really all that off in 2016. We just noticed it because the race was so tight and an error in polling that broke Trump’s way was quite dramatic. If the polls were off a few points in a not very tight race, nobody notices.
Quote:
Originally Posted by john3232
No one is suggesting they do. What the article is saying is pollsters believe the problems seen in the 2016 battleground states haven't been corrected.
And such problems tend to inflate Biden's chances of winning.
And the article I posted to start this thread addresses this exact topic. Here we are....full circle.
The polls weren’t really all that off in 2016. We just noticed it because the race was so tight and an error in polling that broke Trump’s way was quite dramatic. If the polls were off a few points in a not very tight race, nobody notices.
And the article I posted to start this thread addresses this exact topic. Here we are....full circle.
It's not what the polls reported on Nov. 2nd. It's what the polls been predicting for an entire year. Nobody was suggesting 2016 would be tight. Which is why the Trump win was such a shocker to the country. In fact it was the biggest political upset in US history
So what has changed in 2020 with regards to polling? Nothing. The polling data particularly in the battleground states is still off. If the election were held tomorrow Trump would win.
In any event we'll know soon enough.
error in polling that broke Trump’s way was quite dramatic.
Or maybe Trump was never been down as much as was reported. The Clinton camp had been warned in early Feb. the polls were off but they ignored the warning.
It's not what the polls reported on Nov. 2nd. It's what the polls been predicting for an entire year. Nobody was suggesting 2016 would be tight. Which is why the Trump win was such a shocker to the country. In fact it was the biggest political upset in US history
So what has changed in 2020 with regards to polling? Nothing. The polling data particularly with regards to the battleground states is still off. If the election were held tomorrow Trump would win.
In any event we'll know soon enough.
What changed with the 2020 polling? I literally started this thread with an article that outlines in great detail what has changed with the 2020 polling. I mean, it’s the actual title of this thread!! Did you read it?
The fact that you cannot seem to separate what you want from what you actually know is a bit troublesome.
It's not what the polls reported on Nov. 2nd. It's what the polls been predicting for an entire year. Nobody was suggesting 2016 would be tight. Which is why the Trump win was such a shocker to the country. In fact it was the biggest political upset in US history
So what has changed in 2020 with regards to polling? Nothing. The polling data particularly with regards to the battleground states is still off. If the election were held tomorrow Trump would win.
In any event we'll know soon enough.
The election is actually already under way, your assumption that Trump would win if the election were to be held tomorrow is not based on anything but your opinion.
What changed with the 2020 polling? I literally started this thread with an article that outlines in great detail what has changed with the 2020 polling. I mean, it’s the actual title of this thread!! Did you read it?
The fact that you cannot seem to separate what you want from what you actually know is a bit troublesome.
Yes. Did you read the Politco article regarding polling data in the battleground states?
The election is actually already under way, your assumption that Trump would win if the election were to be held tomorrow is not based on anything but your opinion.
"The most common worries for 2020 polling, though, stemmed from the pandemic. Several pollsters said they worried that pollsters would estimate turnout incorrectly. “This is a perennial difficulty for pollsters and survey researchers"
I have been saying polls are propaganda...fake news, since I joined C-D. My reason is that pollster's can't predict turnout rates.
This is the first time I've seen pollsters admit to the point I've been making all along.
They are in no way calling themselves fake, only saying there are certain, uncontrollable limitations to just how accurate they can be. For their limitations, polling still turns out to be far more accurate than not time and time again. You are simply wrong about this.
Never said that. What I said was I believe Silver knows the battleground state polls aren't particularly reliable. And because the data isn't reliable... the odds of winning his model predicts are off.
So why doesn't he correct it? He can't. He inputs what he gets from the polling outfits and from some it's garbage in/garbage out.
The battleground state polls were bad in 2016 because the pollsters working those states were small, local operations that aren't particularly great at polling. In Michigan, this was polling outfits like the local news channel and newspaper. That isn't true in 2020, when you have CBS News, NYT, Reuters, etc. working in Michigan. It's a totally different ballgame this time around.
Yes. Did you read the Politco article regarding polling data in the battleground states?
Yes. I also read it when it came out 4 months ago.
The article I provided is more current and provides concrete examples of what pollsters are doing to help combat the issues raised in the 4 month old article you posted. It flies completely in the face of your “nothing has changed” comment.
You have Trump rallies where thousands show up. Then you have Biden giving a speech to 50 people or less. A major disconnect in enthusiasm. Turnout is what wins elections.
So are the polls cooked? Not necessary. However, I do think the questions are designed to tilt in favor of Biden which helps the DNC fund raising.
But watch....come Nov. 2nd we'll see many reputable polling outfits placing battleground states within a margin of error.
This way Nate Silver/538 as well as the polling outfits have covered themselves in the event Trump victory.
That is not based on enthusiasm, though. That's the lie. It's based on two very different views on the pandemic. One side could not care less how many people are sacrificed to it, while the other does. I'm sure you can guess which is which.
No pollster would intentionally ask tilted questions and still expect to be taken seriously. Polling is big business, and that business is to be as accurate as possible. If you keep selling a crappy product, people stop buying it. Pollsters want accuracy. Now, that is not to say that there aren't pollsters that skew the results to one side or another, but that's why you don't look at just a single poll or pollster, but the averages of them all taken together.
Some of the swing states have been within the margins of error from the start, so those are the ones that could go either way. However, expecting significant movement in the polling seems unlikely at this point, and there are plenty of states- including many swing states- that are now well outside the margins of error. We're just a few weeks away from the election, tens of millions have already voted and there are relatively few undecideds. There's only so much movement that's possible.
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I literally started this thread with an article that outlines in great detail what has changed with the 2020 polling. I mean, it’s the actual title of this thread!! Did you read it? 
