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Demographics favor an even bigger victory for the next Democratic candidate.
They most certainly ensure victory.
I know, I know, it's way too late to predict such things. I was a fool to predict Obama was going to win in 2009 using the same theory.
I'm still wiping the egg off my face.
Why in Gods Green earth would you say demographics favor a bigger victory than 2012? This is about as untrue and telling us the laws will be changed so Obama can run again. There is no way anyone can begin to know what is going to happen in 2016..Some of us are objective enough to realize this. Right now, the Democrats have only one candidate that looks like a likely winner. Right now the Republicans have about 4 or 5 that, if the election was today would make a good showing, but no one knows if any of them will get the nomination and no one knows who will emerge from the left...
I heard about Texas could becoming purple state by 2016.
What you heard and what will happen are, most likely two totally different things. No, Texas will not change colors for quite a while, maybe never. This is like saying CA is on the verge of purple...
the U.S. legislature from Texas could be purple, but not the state. Georgia is more likely.
Tex cruz won with 56% of the vote, Ann Hutchinson won with 61%. The state is turing blue, it wont be there in 2016, but it is turning. There was also less than 50% turnout.
I hate to sound stupid or disagree with you but 1-who is Ann Hutchinson and remember, Cruz was involved in a very heated primary and was certainly not all that well known. I doubt this is any indication of the immediate future of Texas. 20, 30, years from now, who knows? Who would have expected AR to go completely Red even 10 years ago?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nmnita
I hate to sound stupid or disagree with you but 1-who is Ann Hutchinson and remember, Cruz was involved in a very heated primary and was certainly not all that well known. I doubt this is any indication of the immediate future of Texas. 20, 30, years from now, who knows? Who would have expected AR to go completely Red even 10 years ago?
apparently, i merged Ann Richards( texas Governor) with Kay Bailey Hutchinson( the senator who retired and the seat Ted Cruz is occupying), my bad.
Also, Besides the Lt Governor ( who beat cruz in the initial race), everyone else was unknown as well. Cruz realized all he needed to do was to get to the runoff, then he could persuade people to vote for him.
Arkansas was/is a conservative state that was and to a certain extent still is controlled by conservative Democrats. The governor won in blow out. the legislature changed in part because of a Republican red tide in 2010. that being said The legislature is only 48/51 and 14/21
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(set 28 days ago)
Location: Pine Grove,AL
29,594 posts, read 16,564,108 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nmnita
Why in Gods Green earth would you say demographics favor a bigger victory than 2012? This is about as untrue and telling us the laws will be changed so Obama can run again. There is no way anyone can begin to know what is going to happen in 2016..Some of us are objective enough to realize this. Right now, the Democrats have only one candidate that looks like a likely winner. Right now the Republicans have about 4 or 5 that, if the election was today would make a good showing, but no one knows if any of them will get the nomination and no one knows who will emerge from the left...
Democrats do have the demographic edge in elections and that edge continues to grow. That isnt an opinion, thats fact, so i dont really get why you tried to compare that to the changing the Constitution. The only way i could see your argument is if you were trying to say you were responding to an expected turnout, but even that is a stretch.
Hillary and Joe Biden both beat every republican in a head to head presidential election. Joe would lose the popular vote to Christie but he would win the electoral college(PPP polling,W/P, NBC News,Gallup).
Democrats already know who they want to run, this is why her and Biden are the only ones really being talked about, where as Republicans are honestly split, that is why you have 3 candidates with true name recognition and some other straggler like Paul Ryan.
Democrats do have the demographic edge in elections and that edge continues to grow. That isnt an opinion, thats fact, so i dont really get why you tried to compare that to the changing the Constitution. The only way i could see your argument is if you were trying to say you were responding to an expected turnout, but even that is a stretch.
Hillary and Joe Biden both beat every republican in a head to head presidential election. Joe would lose the popular vote to Christie but he would win the electoral college(PPP polling,W/P, NBC News,Gallup).
Democrats already know who they want to run, this is why her and Biden are the only ones really being talked about, where as Republicans are honestly split, that is why you have 3 candidates with true name recognition and some other straggler like Paul Ryan.
OMG get real for heaven's sake, you are talking about name recognition only. You mention polls matching Biden or Hillary against say Christie, how many people do you think have a clue where any of these candidates really stand on issues? How many times have you been polled or any of us for that matter?
I threw the constitution part in just to show how ridiculous your statement sounds at this time, with so long before the election and with us having no real clue as to who will be running. Do you really think the only possible choices for either party on the ones you are talking about now? What about Cuomo for starters or E. Warren who gets some mention? We could debate this forever, but your comments about the demographic holds no water right now. There are some groups that may not get out to vote like they did in the last couple of elections, there may not be a candidate that will excite the college kids like 2008. We saw that in 2012, they didn't turn out nearly like in 2008.
Hillary would be a serious threat, I think most feel that way, partly name recognition, party her ideas and mostly because of her sex. Biden, if nothing else, think about his age for heavens sake...That, the fact he has tried and tried before and got nowhere, his remarks in general make him seem like a ding dong and don't you think, if he were to run things like his plagiarism won't come back to haunt him or maybe you are not even old enough to know about that?
Status:
"everybody getting reported now.."
(set 28 days ago)
Location: Pine Grove,AL
29,594 posts, read 16,564,108 times
Reputation: 6047
Quote:
Originally Posted by nmnita
OMG get real for heaven's sake, you are talking about name recognition only. You mention polls matching Biden or Hillary against say Christie, how many people do you think have a clue where any of these candidates really stand on issues? How many times have you been polled or any of us for that matter?
I threw the constitution part in just to show how ridiculous your statement sounds at this time, with so long before the election and with us having no real clue as to who will be running. Do you really think the only possible choices for either party on the ones you are talking about now? What about Cuomo for starters or E. Warren who gets some mention? We could debate this forever, but your comments about the demographic holds no water right now. There are some groups that may not get out to vote like they did in the last couple of elections, there may not be a candidate that will excite the college kids like 2008. We saw that in 2012, they didn't turn out nearly like in 2008.
Hillary would be a serious threat, I think most feel that way, partly name recognition, party her ideas and mostly because of her sex. Biden, if nothing else, think about his age for heavens sake...That, the fact he has tried and tried before and got nowhere, his remarks in general make him seem like a ding dong and don't you think, if he were to run things like his plagiarism won't come back to haunt him or maybe you are not even old enough to know about that?
You just posed a comment saying that the republicans had 4 or 5 candidates that would have a good showing, what exactly are you basing that on ? Your argument is far more flimsy than the bases you attack mine on.
Im not sure what you mean by the constitutional part, what you posted was completely outlandish and Untrue and something President Obama has shown no interest in doing. Demographics changing in favor of Democrats is a Fact, not something that is debatable.
turnout is a prediction, not fact, i agree there, but it was obvious that the poster of the original comment was simply talking about the possibility and not reporting it as fact.
That being said, you are neglecting the fact that 2008 had the highest turnout in 50 years and that 2012 had a lower turnout than 2004, yet Democrats still won because Demographics have changed. if turnout simply held at 58% Democrats would win in 2016 because they have the majority of support of the voting population, yes there is the population that democratic voters could stay home and republican voters could decided to show up, but you seem to be arguing that democrats dont even have the edge in the demographics, and if not that You are placing emphasis on ONE specific part of the original commentors post and blowing it out of proportion, because it isnt comparable to a change in the constitution.
The age arguments dont work. What does his age have to do with it especially when People like Ron Paul are still running. Ron Paul is 4 years older than Joe Biden will be in 2016. plagiarizm doesnt work either considering both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney were accused of it this year.
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