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Newt would still carry Dixie for reasons that are just better understood than stated explicitly. He might carry a few of the other die-hard republican states in the interior, but that's about it. It wouldn't be like Reagan-Mondale, but it would probably be a pretty easy re-election for Obama.
The more this plays out, the more obvious it is that the GOP is screwed with almost any of the remaining four candidates left.
If they choose Newt, they get a guy who can unify the hardcore anti-Obama and anti-Democrat vote, but they'd also get a guy who would turn off a lot of social conservatives and independent voters.
If they choose Mitt, they'll get those independent voters -- and maybe best Obama in that category. But it's increasingly obvious that there are a lot of republicans who would just as soon chew off their own arm than vote for Mitt Romney.
If they somehow vote for Ron Paul (which won't happen), he would quickly be tossed into the rubbish bin and that just might lead to a repeat of FDR over Alf Landon (523 - 8). A bigger threat that Paul poses though is that he could go rogue and run as an independent, all but ensuring GOP defeat in close states.
Much to my surprise, the candidate who has appeared the sanest to date is Rick Santorum. And I never would have thought that possible going into the primary season. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like he's got much of a chance.
That's a pretty good read on the situation. Newt would win most of the traditional Republican states and Obama would probably expand his map from 2008 by taking all of the swing states.
I think it will be interesting to see what Paul does after the primary season. If Newt wins, he might just go independent because he knows Newt doesn't have a shot. I think Gary Johnson is the unknown factor in the equation. Paul could endorse Johnson or at least his supporters could flock to him to take up the libertarian flag. I think Johnson on the ballot in NM pretty much means Obama will be winning there.
Newt is our only hope as god fearing conservatives. We need to put our full support behind this great patriot. Mitt Romney is not a conservative, he's a Massachusetts Liberal. Newt is a Reaganite. South Carolina got it right, now it's time for Florida to do the same. We need this great man to be our next leader. Stand with him Florida, stand with him America. Vote Newton LeRoy Gingrich!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Newt is our only hope as god fearing conservatives. We need to put our full support behind this great patriot. Mitt Romney is not a conservative, he's a Massachusetts Liberal. Newt is a Reaganite. South Carolina got it right, now it's time for Florida to do the same. We need this great man to be our next leader. Stand with him Florida, stand with him America. Vote Newton LeRoy Gingrich!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
We'd be better off with a splintered, brokered convention that drafts a true potential president as its nominee, instead of the Newt (who turns out to be just one of Freddie's call girls) or Mitt the bland.
Newt is our only hope as god fearing conservatives. We need to put our full support behind this great patriot. Mitt Romney is not a conservative, he's a Massachusetts Liberal. Newt is a Reaganite. South Carolina got it right, now it's time for Florida to do the same. We need this great man to be our next leader. Stand with him Florida, stand with him America. Vote Newton LeRoy Gingrich!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I can assure you that I'll vote Newt in the Texas GOP primary. I sincerely hope the Republicans don't foul up this opportunity for us to have the most entertaining presidential campaign in our lifetimes.
Newt would still carry Dixie for reasons that are just better understood than stated explicitly. He might carry a few of the other die-hard republican states in the interior, but that's about it. It wouldn't be like Reagan-Mondale, but it would probably be a pretty easy re-election for Obama.
The more this plays out, the more obvious it is that the GOP is screwed with almost any of the remaining four candidates left.
If they choose Newt, they get a guy who can unify the hardcore anti-Obama and anti-Democrat vote, but they'd also get a guy who would turn off a lot of social conservatives and independent voters.
If they choose Mitt, they'll get those independent voters -- and maybe best Obama in that category. But it's increasingly obvious that there are a lot of republicans who would just as soon chew off their own arm than vote for Mitt Romney.
If they somehow vote for Ron Paul (which won't happen), he would quickly be tossed into the rubbish bin and that just might lead to a repeat of FDR over Alf Landon (523 - 8). A bigger threat that Paul poses though is that he could go rogue and run as an independent, all but ensuring GOP defeat in close states.
Much to my surprise, the candidate who has appeared the sanest to date is Rick Santorum. And I never would have thought that possible going into the primary season. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like he's got much of a chance.
I think your assessment is just a bit flawed, especially in your opinion of Dr. Paul. You try to assert that if Dr. Paul gets the nomination, he'll be slaughtered in the fashion of Alf Landon, but in your next breath you give him enough credence to say that a 3rd party run would "all but ensure GOP defeat in close states."
That is about as sensible as claiming that Rick Sanitorium is SANE...
Newt is our only hope as god fearing conservatives. We need to put our full support behind this great patriot. Mitt Romney is not a conservative, he's a Massachusetts Liberal. Newt is a Reaganite. South Carolina got it right, now it's time for Florida to do the same. We need this great man to be our next leader. Stand with him Florida, stand with him America. Vote Newton LeRoy Gingrich!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
You're gonna feel pretty foolish in November... Wait and see.
Newt would still carry Dixie for reasons that are just better understood than stated explicitly. He might carry a few of the other die-hard republican states in the interior, but that's about it. It wouldn't be like Reagan-Mondale, but it would probably be a pretty easy re-election for Obama.
In the popular vote Reagan got 58.8% to Mondale's 40.6%.
In head to head polling the most Republican credible polling organization's latest results are 48% Obama to 39% Gingrich. That leaves 13% undecided to fight over. (Obama only needs to grab 2% of that 13% to lock up the victory.)
Now this comes before Newt starts getting beat up for his scandals. In my opinion, that middle ground goes 10% to Obama and 3% to Gingrich because for all his flaws, Obama is nowhere near as scandalous as Gingrich. I also think Gingrich loses some of his 39%.
But just for argument's sake, let's split it 5% Obama, 5% and 3% going to a third party or something like that. Your best case result? 53% Obama 44% Gingrich. Not as bad, sure. But that's also the best case scenario for Gingrich.
Some polls have Obama beating him by more than 15%. There is good reason to believe that Gingrich would lose worse than Mondale lost to Reagan. We're giving Gingrich every conceivable chance to look good in a hypothetical general election run here. He looks like crap no matter how you tweak it!
(Romney has stayed in a virtual dead heat with Mr O ever since the started polling on it.)
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The more this plays out, the more obvious it is that the GOP is screwed with almost any of the remaining four candidates left.
If they choose Newt, they get a guy who can unify the hardcore anti-Obama and anti-Democrat vote, but they'd also get a guy who would turn off a lot of social conservatives and independent voters.
If they choose Mitt, they'll get those independent voters -- and maybe best Obama in that category. But it's increasingly obvious that there are a lot of republicans who would just as soon chew off their own arm than vote for Mitt Romney.
When asked what party they belong to, 27% of Americans say they're Republican. 30% say they are Democrats. 42% say they are neither which means they're Independents.
Of the 27% who answered Republicans, a little more than half are your proud conservative Republicans. Mitt will get a chunk of that 14% conservatives in the primaries and according to Pew Research, all of it in the general election.
Reaching out to the 42% in the primaries doesn't win you the primaries. But having a candidate who can win the battle for that 42% is much more important than being able to win over that 14%. Most of the 14% will vote for Romney in a general election because they don't want 4 more years of Obamocracy.
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If they somehow vote for Ron Paul (which won't happen), he would quickly be tossed into the rubbish bin and that just might lead to a repeat of FDR over Alf Landon (523 - 8). A bigger threat that Paul poses though is that he could go rogue and run as an independent, all but ensuring GOP defeat in close states.
Much to my surprise, the candidate who has appeared the sanest to date is Rick Santorum. And I never would have thought that possible going into the primary season. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like he's got much of a chance.
Despite media blackouts, blacklisting, near criminal disregard and everything else, Ron Paul still is looking WAY better than Newt Gingrich in head to head polling. And he hasn't even had a chance to truly share his message with the American public without the media trying to spin it into something it isn't.
Rick Santorum is the only candidate who left who can rally give Newt a run for his money at looking terrible in head to head polling against Obama. He does seem like a nice guy, but he won't win if he gets to the general election.
Obama is much more dangerous than the GOP gives him credit for. He's a terrible politician but a very skilled campaigner. Romney has the best odds of beating him. Ron Paul is the only other guy who can come anywhere close.
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