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In the wake of Republican Chris Lee's craigslist scandal and his quick resignation it set up a Special Election in NY-26. The 26th has generally been one of the most conservative and GOP districts in NY (under the current lines, was Bush's best district in the state in 2000, his 2nd best in 2004, McCain's best in 2008).
Running for the seat is Democratic County Clerk of Erie County Kathy Hochul, Republican Assemblywoman Jane Corwin, and tea party candidate Jack Davis. Davis is a Republican, turned Democrat, turned Republican turned tea party candidate, who previously ran for the seat as a Democrat.
Jane Corwin's problem is Jack Davis, the Tea Party candidate. The latest poll, however, shows his support has plummeted, though. I have a feeling at the election, he will garner under 10% of the vote. That will be huge for Corwin.
I was up there a few weeks ago and Hochul seems to be riding the Ryan plan for medicare disaster for all its worth. If she wins it will be because of that.
Jane Corwin's problem is Jack Davis, the Tea Party candidate. The latest poll, however, shows his support has plummeted, though. I have a feeling at the election, he will garner under 10% of the vote. That will be huge for Corwin.
In the end, this will be a very close election.
Its more than Davis. As Randomstudent pointed out the Medicare issue is big. Davis's support has dropped quite a bit in the polls, but Hochul has actually increased as Davis's numbers have dropped. Also among the current Davis supporters, both Hochul and Corwin have poor numbers, Corwin's are horrific. So based off that if Davis loses more support, they simply won't show up at the polls, and those that do may lean towards Hochul.
Regardless of what happens in this special election, the Republicans were silly to put forth the Ryan plan. The first rule of politics is don't alienate the old people. They vote. Even though Ryan and the Republicans kept saying "if you are over 55, you will not be affected," the very mention of cutting Medicare or Social Security can and will scare seniors.
That was a very bad call by a party that is usually very politically savvy and knows how to play the game. I think they may have overplayed their hand on this one.
Regardless of what happens in this special election, the Republicans were silly to put forth the Ryan plan. The first rule of politics is don't alienate the old people. They vote. Even though Ryan and the Republicans kept saying "if you are over 55, you will not be affected," the very mention of cutting Medicare or Social Security can and will scare seniors.
That was a very bad call by a party that is usually very politically savvy and knows how to play the game. I think they may have overplayed their hand on this one.
They, as usual, do not understand what the American people are concerned about. It is, and has been, about jobs. Since their gains last Nov, the Repubs have done nothing but attempt to cost jobs, like Ryan's Folly".
Regardless of what happens in this special election, the Republicans were silly to put forth the Ryan plan. The first rule of politics is don't alienate the old people. They vote. Even though Ryan and the Republicans kept saying "if you are over 55, you will not be affected," the very mention of cutting Medicare or Social Security can and will scare seniors.
That was a very bad call by a party that is usually very politically savvy and knows how to play the game. I think they may have overplayed their hand on this one.
Yes the should have just lied and pretended they care about middle class benefits...then cut them AFTER they get into office and the corporate lobby money rolls in.
Yes the should have just lied and pretended they care about middle class benefits...then cut them AFTER they get into office and the corporate lobby money rolls in.
Well, the joke's on the Republicans because they just lost that seat! History has been made in the 26th district!
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