5/18 Primaries and Special Election (Ron Paul, house seat, voters, Congress)
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Note to moderators I also included this analysis in my election thread so if you feel it should be kept there you can delete this thread), though due to the immediate nature of next week's Primaries and Special Elections I felt it deserved its own thread.
On May 18th we have four states with Primaries (AR, KY, OR & PA) and a Special Election in PA-12, in addition on Sat May 22nd we have a special election in Hawaii-1. Many of these races are quite competitive.
In Arkansas Democrat Blanche Lincoln is in a fight to keep her job against Lt Gov Bill Hatler. Lincoln has led in most of the polls, but it is quite close. Little known D.C Morrison is also running, but could get enough of votes to force it into a runoff. On the GOP side it appears Congressman John Boozman will be the nominee, the only question is will he be able to get 50% in the crowded field to avoid a runoff. Boozman leads both Lincoln and Halter in GE match ups.
In Ketucky we have an open seat with the retirement of Republican Jim Bunning. On the GOP side Rand Paul (Ron Paul's son) appears to be the front runner over Terry Grayson who is the establishment candidate. On the Democratic side Lt Gov Daniel Mongiardo (who ran against Bunning and lost narrowly in 04) is running against AG Jack COnway. The polls show the race close but with Mongiardo in the lead. Most of the general election polls have Paul with a mid to high single digit lead over either Conway or Mongiardo.
In Oregon, its really not much. Democratic Senator Ron Wyden is running for re-election and will easily win his Primary. On the GOP side Jim Huffman will likely win the Primary, he has very little chance of making the race against Wyden even competitive.
Pennsylvania. After Arlen Specter switched parties Pat Toomey pretty much locked up the GOP nomination, he will face little opposition in the wag of Peg Lusik. On the Democratic side its Dem turned Rep turned Democrat Arlen Specter facing off against Congressman Joe Sestak. Specter's base has long been suburban Philly. Specter was never well liked among conservatives when he was in the GOP and it was the suburban Philly based (mostly moderates) which helped Specter fight off Toomey 04 challenge. For years the GOP has lost massive registration ground in SEPA, as many moderates have bolted from the party. As a result the state GOP is much more conservative than it use to be, and Specter can no longer count on that suburban Philly base to help him hold off Toomey as they simply aren't GOP voters anymore. Sestak a former admiral represents a Congressional district in PA-7, and has seemed to have taken the lead. The ironic thing for Specter here is the fact much of his suburban Philly base that went from GOP to Dem played a large role in him jumping ship from the GOP, but it looks more and more like they back the more liberal Sestak, who represents a portion of the suburban Philly voters in Congress. A General Election race should be close and it appears that Sestak is running better than Specter.
PA-12 Special Election. Following the death of Congressman John Murtha a special election was triggered in this western PA district. While Murtha was able to hold the district for a long time it has been trending GOP for awhile. Gore won it easily, Kerry only narrowly and Obama lost it. In fact its the only district in the country that Kerry won that Obama did not. So no question a GOP trend has gone on in the district, though locally the Dems are still fairly strong. The race pits up GOP businessman Tim Burns against former Murtha aide Mark Critz. Critz has led in most of the polling, though the results are fairly close.
HI-1 Special Election. This one is on Sat May 22nd. A three way race between Republican Charles Dijou and Democrats Ed Case and Coleen Hanabussa. It looks like Dijou will win with Case and Hanabussa splitting the Democratic vote. I highly doubt the GOP holds this seat beyond November, Dijou will only be running against one Democrat, not two splitting the vote, and Neal Aebercrombie (the former Congressman in the district) is on the top of the ticket as he is running for Gov.
Note to moderators I also included this analysis in my election thread so if you feel it should be kept there you can delete this thread), though due to the immediate nature of next week's Primaries and Special Elections I felt it deserved its own thread.
On May 18th we have four states with Primaries (AR, KY, OR & PA) and a Special Election in PA-12, in addition on Sat May 22nd we have a special election in Hawaii-1. Many of these races are quite competitive.
In Arkansas Democrat Blanche Lincoln is in a fight to keep her job against Lt Gov Bill Hatler. Lincoln has led in most of the polls, but it is quite close. Little known D.C Morrison is also running, but could get enough of votes to force it into a runoff. On the GOP side it appears Congressman John Boozman will be the nominee, the only question is will he be able to get 50% in the crowded field to avoid a runoff. Boozman leads both Lincoln and Halter in GE match ups.
In Ketucky we have an open seat with the retirement of Republican Jim Bunning. On the GOP side Rand Paul (Ron Paul's son) appears to be the front runner over Terry Grayson who is the establishment candidate. On the Democratic side Lt Gov Daniel Mongiardo (who ran against Bunning and lost narrowly in 04) is running against AG Jack COnway. The polls show the race close but with Mongiardo in the lead. Most of the general election polls have Paul with a mid to high single digit lead over either Conway or Mongiardo.
In Oregon, its really not much. Democratic Senator Ron Wyden is running for re-election and will easily win his Primary. On the GOP side Jim Huffman will likely win the Primary, he has very little chance of making the race against Wyden even competitive.
Pennsylvania. After Arlen Specter switched parties Pat Toomey pretty much locked up the GOP nomination, he will face little opposition in the wag of Peg Lusik. On the Democratic side its Dem turned Rep turned Democrat Arlen Specter facing off against Congressman Joe Sestak. Specter's base has long been suburban Philly. Specter was never well liked among conservatives when he was in the GOP and it was the suburban Philly based (mostly moderates) which helped Specter fight off Toomey 04 challenge. For years the GOP has lost massive registration ground in SEPA, as many moderates have bolted from the party. As a result the state GOP is much more conservative than it use to be, and Specter can no longer count on that suburban Philly base to help him hold off Toomey as they simply aren't GOP voters anymore. Sestak a former admiral represents a Congressional district in PA-7, and has seemed to have taken the lead. The ironic thing for Specter here is the fact much of his suburban Philly base that went from GOP to Dem played a large role in him jumping ship from the GOP, but it looks more and more like they back the more liberal Sestak, who represents a portion of the suburban Philly voters in Congress. A General Election race should be close and it appears that Sestak is running better than Specter.
PA-12 Special Election. Following the death of Congressman John Murtha a special election was triggered in this western PA district. While Murtha was able to hold the district for a long time it has been trending GOP for awhile. Gore won it easily, Kerry only narrowly and Obama lost it. In fact its the only district in the country that Kerry won that Obama did not. So no question a GOP trend has gone on in the district, though locally the Dems are still fairly strong. The race pits up GOP businessman Tim Burns against former Murtha aide Mark Critz. Critz has led in most of the polling, though the results are fairly close.
HI-1 Special Election. This one is on Sat May 22nd. A three way race between Republican Charles Dijou and Democrats Ed Case and Coleen Hanabussa. It looks like Dijou will win with Case and Hanabussa splitting the Democratic vote. I highly doubt the GOP holds this seat beyond November, Dijou will only be running against one Democrat, not two splitting the vote, and Neal Aebercrombie (the former Congressman in the district) is on the top of the ticket as he is running for Gov.
Here in AR I didn't vote for Boozman, not for any particular reason, just because there were so many good choices, it does appear he will get enough votes to ward off a run off. Even our most die hard Democrat reporters and columnist think it makes no difference who wins the Democratic primary, the Republicans will win in November for the first time in decades. We also have a couple of congressional seats open, the one Boozmas holds, that should gbe a run off, with the winner holding on in November and one other seat going Republican then as well.
For my predictions for the 5/18 Senate Primaries and the Special Election (no point in predicted the Oregon Primaries or the PA GOP Primaries as those are not remotely in question.
[b]Arkansas Dem[b]
Lincoln 47%
Haller 44%
Morrision 9%
Forces a runoff Halter wins that
Arkansas Rep
Boozman 53% avoids runoff (won't bother to list the others)
Kentucky Dem
Conway 48.2%
Mongiardo 46.9%
Others 4.9%
Kentucky Rep
Paul 55.3%
Grayson 37.2%
Others 7.5%
Pennsylvania Dem
Sestak 52.8%
Specter 47.2%
I might adjust this somewhat, Specter has a new ad targeting voters in western PA (mostly conservative and rural Dems) attacking Sestak for his F rating from the NRA. If this gets back to the urban and suburban Dems in the Philly area who are far more liberal and much more pro-gun control than the Dems out west this backfires on Specter, and might cause me to push my prediction up to a point for Sestak
Anyone who wishes to post updates as the results come in please feel free to do so. I will try to post the results as they come in when I can, but won't be around until sometime after 10 eastern in order to do so.
Polls in eastern Kentucky are now closed, western Kentucky will close within 40 minutes.
Polls in Pennsylvania close at 8 PM EDT
Polls in Arkansas close at 8:30 Eastern/ 7:30 Central
Polls in Oregon close at 11:00 Eastern/ 8:00 Pacific
Rand Paul has won the GOP nomination for Senate in Kentucky, Paul is up 59-35, with 99% in. For the Democrats Jack Conway wins narrowly is up 44-43% with 99% in.
PA Senate, it will be Toomey for the GOP against Sestak. Joe Sestak has won the Dem nomination, and is up 53.6-46.5 with 86% in.
PA-12 Democrat Mark Critz has won, up by 7 points with 80% in
Arkansas Blanche Lincoln is up 44-42% with 47% precincts in, looks almost certain it will be a runoff.
Boozman leads the GOP nomination with 45.36% of the vote, with 47% precincts in, remains to be seen if he will get the 50% mark.
Blanche Lincoln is a goner in the run off election .True liberals and progressive are not going to stand for a candidate that uses right wing talking points to bash Democrats. The GOP can have the seat. If Arkansas voters don't have the smarts to elect a true progressive/liberal in the general election then they deserve GOP representation.
Most of this is known, but will give a run down of the results for the Primaries in the Senate, and the Special Election
Arkansas
With 99% reporting Blanche Lincoln leads Bill Halter 45-43%, a runoff will occur on June 8th. Congressman John Boozman locked up the GOP nomination with 53% of the vote
Three of the four Arkansas House seats will be open, two Democratic (AR-1 & AR-2), one Republican (AR-3)
In AR-1 a runoff will occur between Tim Wooldrige and Chad Causey. Wooldrige leads 39-27% with 97% reporting. Republican Rick Crawford gets the GOP nomination with 73% of the vote.
AR-2 For the Democrats Joyce Elliot leads Robbie Williams 40-28 with all precincts reporting a runoff will occur here as well, winner will face Republican Tim Griffin who had 62% of the vote
AR-3. A runoff will occur between Steve Womack 31%, and Cecile Bledsoe 13% for the GOP nomination. David Whitaker has the Dem nomination locked up.
Kentucky
Rand Paul easily wins the GOP nomination for Senate, 58.8-35.4 with 99% reporting. The Democratic side was quite close, Conway is the winner, up 43.9-43.2 (approx 3550 votes) 99% in, but should be slightly larger when its all set and done as Conway's base in Louisville (Jefferson County) is the only county not 100% in.
Oregon
Not much to note here, as expected Senator Ron Wyden wins the Dem nomination easily, with 82% in is at 90%. The GOP nomination goes to Jim Huffman 42%.
Pennsylvania
As expected Pat Toomey easily won the GOP nomination for Senate. He will face off Congressman Joe Sestak, who knocked off Incumbent GOP turned Dem Senator 54-46 (99.2% reporting).
Democrat Mark Critz defeated Tim Burns in the seat vacated by the death of Democrat John Murtha. 53.4-44.3 with virtually all the districts reporting.
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