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Well it's not a surprise. Eventually the "unemployed" are taken off the list when unemployment runs out. Those ineligible for unemployment are not even counted. All government numbers are rigged, they cannot do anything other than cook the books.
Bangs head against wall.... the numbers released today were the non-farm payroll numbers that represent the jobs lost last month. It has nothing to do with the unemployment number, which increased, although continuing claims have come down.
I'm just tired of this black helicopter, conspiracy theory nonsense. Given that this rise in unemployment has taken place primarily since October, almost all of the unemployed are still receiving regular or extended benefits. Your argument about some defacto depression due to a group of people who have run out of benefits is just not supported by facts, even forgetting that the rate of layoffs and job losses have been cut by 50%.
Well it's not a surprise. Eventually the "unemployed" are taken off the list when unemployment runs out. Those ineligible for unemployment are not even counted. All government numbers are rigged, they cannot do anything other than cook the books.
Exactly.
One doesn't need to dig far beyond massaged figures to see that the recession is FAR from over - in my personal opinion it has barely started.
For those who can be bothered to look a little deeper than mainstream media headlines here is an interesting set of graphs depicting where we are economically today in comparison to the Great Depression:
Once again....the recession can be over (not saying it necessarily is yet) and jobs can still be hard to find or unemployment may still climb even with 1% to 2% GDP growth.
Are you say the recession is over? I wouldn't know with everything going on.
-Why is it assumed that he has any credibility at all? The story leaves out that 80% or 90% of economists never saw this downturn coming in the first place.
It also leaves out that ordinary people saw this recession long before NBEA did. Didn't they "declare" it a year after it was obvious to everyone?
-Why did they arbitarily pick 1974? Because it lines up nicely with their story?
-The way unemployment statistics have been jiggled around so much since the 70's, are you really comparing apples to apples?
Buried deep in the article is the tough question. "How do you really know when there has been a "peak" in claims? Just because the four-week moving average turns down for a couple weeks, how do we know it won't just turn up again and go to new highs?"
So, the article could have been titled..."The 4 week moving average of jobless claims has gone down for a few weeks and an economist claims its the end of the recession".
Funny, that wouldn't quite have the same persuasive power.
There have been so many forces at work that created the recession in the first place, looking at just that one number and making a proclamation from it would seem pretty silly.
Bangs head against wall.... the numbers released today were the non-farm payroll numbers that represent the jobs lost last month. It has nothing to do with the unemployment number, which increased, although continuing claims have come down.
I'm just tired of this black helicopter, conspiracy theory nonsense. Given that this rise in unemployment has taken place primarily since October, almost all of the unemployed are still receiving regular or extended benefits. Your argument about some defacto depression due to a group of people who have run out of benefits is just not supported by facts, even forgetting that the rate of layoffs and job losses have been cut by 50%.
And the birth/death rate calculation for the month(May) was 200K+ new jobs created which offset the jobs lost. All of a sudden the government has doubled the new jobs for the past two months..I'm assuming they are using the projected "new jobs" created from the stimulus to use that new number..there is no explanation on the BLS site though so I'm presuming here. There's really no other reason why the government would double the number of new jobs created these past two months.
U6 is over 16% so their numbers seem realistic. "officially" we've been floating at around 8% give or take for months while 600K jobs are lost each month.
I think the government is purposely not taking into consideration that many jobs these days are commission, short term contact, or per diem jobs. When the salaries dry up for those jobs there is not way of showing those levels.
One of my friends is an architect who earns his salary by the amount of work he does for a customer. He may work within a partnership but if he is not working on any projects, he is not getting paid.
Salespersons like the ones which sell appliances at Sears are commission salary earners also. Sears does not guarantee a salary. If an employee does not sell, they don't earn a single dollar. A salesperson may stand all day on a sales floor with no earning potential.
People like me who work day by day as a substitute teacher may not be called to work at a particular school. Since I get paid a flat daily rate, I may not be able to earn a dollar. School districts often will institute budget cuts and not use substitute’s teachers as often as they would like...
Employees working these types of jobs will unlikely qualify for unemployment. Sears which does not pay a regular salary will not fire an employee since they are not really paying them until they actually sell. Same goes for my architect friend. He is working within a partnership. As for substitute teachers, we are told by a school system that we have reasonable assurance that we will work during the school year. When the school year is over so is the assurance. Because of that assurance, we can not file for unemployment.
I will put a monies bet that 40% of the nation’s employees fall within these types of jobs.
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