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It's generally recognized by most mainstream economists that it was the huge stimulus of the build up to WWII in 1940 that finally ended the depression. As WWII progressed, you had the lowest unemployment and highest government spending as a % of GDP ever recorded in the US.
The "Roosevelt Recession" of 1937 was a setback to the recovery from the depression, as the economy was NOT ready to sustain itself without the massive fiscal stimulus of government spending. There is not a single credible or mainstream source that believes that 1934 was the end of the depression.
Unemployment didn't even get below 10% until after 1941, although it was reduced from the absolute high of 24.9% (in 1933) as the New Deal stimulus kicked in in 1934. GDP was below 1929 levels until 1939, although it increased on a percentage basis and was in positive territory in '35 & '36. At best, you could say 1939 was the end, but 1934 isn't even rational to suggest as the end.
Not any economist I have read. All say that WWII is what really ended the depression as we satrted suppling the uK with war supplies. Unemployemnt was reduced by the WPA programs but that is kind of like saying that workfare ends unemployment.
It's generally recognized by most mainstream economists that it was the huge stimulus of the build up to WWII in 1940 that finally ended the depression.
This is not "generally recognized". There is a bit of equivocation here. There is the period know as "the depression" in pop culture and there there is "a depression" as in an economic event. The depression in the latter case ended years before the war even started.
The depression if the former case ended when WW2 started, but this isn't exactly interesting. In this sense it just marks a period of time, not a particular economic event. The economy was not in a depression years before the war started.
Quote:
Originally Posted by neil0311
There is not a single credible or mainstream source that believes that 1934 was the end of the depression.
Really? Because any book I've seen on the topic mentions it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by neil0311
At best, you could say 1939 was the end, but 1934 isn't even rational to suggest as the end.
Except that by definition it ended in 1934. There was a recession in 1937, how can you have a recession if you are already in a depression? You can't. The depression ended in 1934.
Your comments are pretty funny. It isn't even rational to suggest it....yet its completely true. The idea that WW2 ended the depression is a sort of urban Myth, largely cited by conservatives.
The end of the depression in the U.S is associated with the onset of the war economy of World War II, beginning around 1939.
In 1937 the American economy took an unexpected nosedive, lasting through most of 1938. Production declined sharply, as did profits and employment. Unemployment jumped from 14.3% in 1937 to 19.0% in 1938. The Roosevelt administration reacted by launching a rhetorical campaign against monopoly power, which was cast as the cause of the depression, and by appointing Thurman Arnold to act; Arnold's effectiveness ended once World War II began and corporate energies had to be directed to winning the war.
The administration's other response to the 1937 deepening of the Great Depression had more tangible results.
Obviously, someone should rewrite it. It currently is misleading. But I already addressed this, people some times refer to the period between 1929~1940 as "the great depression". But 1929~1940 didn't mark a 11 year depression. There were two separate events, the initial event from 1929~1934 and a second event that started around 1937. The event in 1937 was much smaller than the one between 1929~1934 though. It also started to reverse before any major war spending started. Given that the economy recovered more during 1932 and 1937 than it did during the war, its sort of odd to claim that WW2 caused the depression to end.
Regardless, of these details. Suggesting that no credible economists argues that the war did not end the "the depression" is extremely inaccurate.
At a macroeconomic scale, the war not only decisively ended the Great Depression, but created the conditions for productive postwar collaboration between the federal government, private enterprise, and organized labor, the parties whose tripartite collaboration helped engender continued economic growth after the war. The U.S. emerged from the war not physically unscathed, but economically strengthened by wartime industrial expansion, which placed the United States at absolute and relative advantage over both its allies and its enemies.
the entire article is very interesting, with manufacturing data included:http://eh.net/encyclopedia/article/tassava.WWII
Not any economist I have read. All say that WWII is what really ended the depression as we satrted suppling the uK with war supplies. Unemployemnt was reduced by the WPA programs but that is kind of like saying that workfare ends unemployment.
OK...so you agree with me. I'm not getting your comments. You're simply restating what I said.
Only if you want to rewrite history and make the entry incorrect. Geez...I can't believe we're even having this debate about something that isn't the least bit controversial. Where did you go to school?
Only if you want to rewrite history and make the entry incorrect. Geez...I can't believe we're even having this debate about something that isn't the least bit controversial. Where did you go to school?
Hey, I can't believe it either. I will say it for the third time, the period between 1929~1940 (sometimes up to 1942) is often referred to as "The great depression" in history books. But in this case its just a term used to denote a particular time period and hence noting that the start of WW2 correlations with the end of this time period isn't particularly telling.
In this sense claiming that WW2 ended the "The great depression" makes no sense at all as the "The great depression" is just a period of time.
Now, a depression is a macroeconomic event with a particular meaning. The depression (in the macroeconomic sense) ended in 1934. If you doubt this simply look at the growth of GDP and the decline in the unemployment from 1934~1937. I will ask this again, how can you have a recession in 1937 if you're already in a depression? This makes absolutely no sense. Of course, the economy wasn't in a depression prior to 1937. In 1937 GDP started to decline and the unemployment rate started to increase again. This marked a recession.
"The great depression" as an macroeconomic event was from 1929~1934, but as a human and sociological event it was from 1929~1940-ish. You see.....words have more than one connotation and in this case the word is used different manner in a historical context than it is from an economic context.
Unfortunately, decisions on this topic are ripe with equivocation and hence the common view that WW2 some how ended "The great depression".
Lastly, whether I dropped out of high school or went to an Ivy League doesn't matter. Its irrelevant.
I can't stress this enough: never, NEVER trust Wikipedia without verifying anything they say through at least 2 other sources. Better yet, don't use Wiki at all.
The end of the depression in the U.S is associated with the onset of the war economy of World War II, beginning around 1939.
In 1937 the American economy took an unexpected nosedive, lasting through most of 1938. Production declined sharply, as did profits and employment. Unemployment jumped from 14.3% in 1937 to 19.0% in 1938. The Roosevelt administration reacted by launching a rhetorical campaign against monopoly power, which was cast as the cause of the depression, and by appointing Thurman Arnold to act; Arnold's effectiveness ended once World War II began and corporate energies had to be directed to winning the war.
The administration's other response to the 1937 deepening of the Great Depression had more tangible results.
The Recession of 1937 was a sharp economic downturn in the United States in 1937-38. It was part of the Great Depression in the United States.
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