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I just filled up for 3.29, so I guess the speculation of "not dropping much below $3.50" might end up not being true. I can only hope that it drops below $3
The trend is for oil to be higher every year. That trend will continue. I should be completely off oil by next year if the real estate values keep falling.
Gas takes the major role in our economy. If it's price go high, everything will follow. I don't think we can do something for this as an ordinary citizen. Keep fingers crossed.
If the overall trend line in the US continues to be to drive and buy less (we suck up and burn a disproportional amount of the world supply of the stuff) the production will go into surplus (as it is, now).
Even if production stays flat -- as it has for the last three years -- and our demand goes down, the price goes down. Pretty simple world in that regard. The real trick ahead is to keep our demand falling ahead of the expected worldwide fall in production. If can keep our future demand below future production, it is a soft landing all the way down. But that is on the big picture level.
On the individual level you save (and save big) on every gallon you do not buy and burn whether the price is $3, $4, $5, or even above or below.
But overall I have to give praise where there is praise to be given. Good work, America!
Do people talk about drilling within our own borders b/c they only care about themselves and not the future generations? Oil WILL run out and the longer you put it off the better. So you pay a little more now so your great great grandchildren will reap the rewards. When all of the oil dries out across the globe and the U.S taps its reserves i think the US will be sitting pretty. I am sorry if you can't afford the higher prices, but that is from choices you have made in your life. We all might not have started equal, but life is not fair.
It is sad that gas prices are coming down. As someone has stated, the conservation that was created by high prices will disappear now. B/C my tank went from $75 fill up to $50 fill up should not mean i can drive %50 more.
I actually frequent some of the peak oil web sites, and there was an article at theoildrum.com, in which Jeff Vail posted:
"...Because the demand that is destroyed first in a free market is the demand that is easiest to eliminate, the resulting consumptive system is more inelastic, more brittle, and more susceptible to systemic shock from supply disruption."
In other words, we can cut out unnecessary errands, carpool, etc. right now. But in the end, we are still dependent on oil. As the supply goes down and the price goes up, there's less fat to cut. This is both on a personal level and on a national level. Just because the price of oil has gone down a little, and we're paying less at the pump isn't cause for us to celebrate and think that everything is back to normal. This is merely a little bit of calm before the storm.
I actually frequent some of the peak oil web sites, and there was an article at theoildrum.com, in which Jeff Vail posted:
"...Because the demand that is destroyed first in a free market is the demand that is easiest to eliminate, the resulting consumptive system is more inelastic, more brittle, and more susceptible to systemic shock from supply disruption."
In other words, we can cut out unnecessary errands, carpool, etc. right now. But in the end, we are still dependent on oil. As the supply goes down and the price goes up, there's less fat to cut. This is both on a personal level and on a national level. Just because the price of oil has gone down a little, and we're paying less at the pump isn't cause for us to celebrate and think that everything is back to normal. This is merely a little bit of calm before the storm.
Let's take a look at a few things. Not to take anything away from the quoted source, Jeff Vail, we should nevertheless look at his economic credentials. He has a BS in European History with a minor in German and this year got his law degree.
His overall thought process is driven by the fact that he believes that continued growth is impossible in a finite world and that at some point years in the future mankind will run out of everything, not only oil.
His statement about demand being destroyed first is the easiest to eliminate in a free market is true about anything - food, clothing, water, etc. So we agree. But two things that his argument does not address is the fact that broadly defined items have a lower demand elasticity than narrowly defined items and that time tends to allow initial trends in inelasticity to reverse.
Therefore, as we look over time at a more broady defined item, energy, instead of oil and about the fact that longer timespans mean that the markets will correct by developing alternatives, the argument about the drive to always do less than to strive to do more no longer becomes the discussion driver.
His main beef is with hierarchy in society, not oil prices. He thinks it destroys civilization.
Let's take a look at a few things. Not to take anything away from the quoted source, Jeff Vail, we should nevertheless look at his economic credentials. He has a BS in European History with a minor in German and this year got his law degree.
His overall thought process is driven by the fact that he believes that continued growth is impossible in a finite world and that at some point years in the future mankind will run out of everything, not only oil.
His statement about demand being destroyed first is the easiest to eliminate in a free market is true about anything - food, clothing, water, etc. So we agree. But two things that his argument does not address is the fact that broadly defined items have a lower demand elasticity than narrowly defined items and that time tends to allow initial trends in inelasticity to reverse.
Therefore, as we look over time at a more broady defined item, energy, instead of oil and about the fact that longer timespans mean that the markets will correct by developing alternatives, the argument about the drive to always do less than to strive to do more no longer becomes the discussion driver.
His main beef is with hierarchy in society, not oil prices. He thinks it destroys civilization.
And while the discussion tends to go a little (ok, a LOT) deeper at The Oil Drum, as well, I think they totally missed that the long run effect of short oil or even marginally high priced oil will be substitution -- towards means and methods that do not involve oil.
And yeah, I know that Full-Metal-Jacket-Doomer-Dogma holds there IS NO substitute to oil as it is generally used -- that is of course, just dogma. Not part of the Peak Oil model at all.
But the longer view is that some 100 years from now (or much sooner if we choose) folks will look back at The Age of Oil as we do now the Age of Horses. Will still be some or even plenty around, but not generally used or even needed.
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