Gas Should Go To $6 Gallon (insurance, capitalism, small business, wholesale)
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I mean abandoned---if the winter is 'average' 150 Gallons in a home built after 1990 may last a few weeks at 1500 square feet- older homes perhaps half that much time.
I frankly do not know how Senior citizens/ the poor/disabled on fixed incomes will do it.
Not likely any time soon------barring a massive disruption to the oil supply via either war or natural disaster.
As it stands: gasoline is about $4 a gallon with oil going for about $135 a barrel.
To hit that magical number of $6 a gallon for fuel-------oil would need to be around $200 a barrel.
Such a scenario would backfire badly against OPEC and could possibly destroy it once we withstood the initial shock.
Remember that your 35 cents a gallon for gasoline in 1973 (pre embargo) would roughly equal about $1.80 today. Factor in the vastly improve MPG of even the V8 powered vehicles compared to back then; so per mile driven, it is no more $$$ today @ $3.25 a gallon compared to our 35 cents then.
I am not that worried; concerned yes, but not worried.
Good post. We see all of the $10 and $20 a gallon crowd set up this panic mode, but there is a point, and six dollars a gallon is probably a good estimate, where the ballgame changes.
Much of this demand for oil from India and China will not be there at $200 a barrel. The United States is in a better position to react to technology solutions than those countries. So I too am concerned, but not worried.
The point about fuel economy of our current "fleet" versus the 1973 "fleet" is also excellent.
The point about fuel economy of our current "fleet" versus the 1973 "fleet" is also excellent.
The overall miles per gallon of the US auto fleet has improved over 1973--by any account the worst year for fleet fuel economy in US history. 1973 was the "convergence" year when the big V8-powered automobile got strangled by "Rube Goldberg" emissions controls. The damned things would barely run, and got about 20-40% worse fuel economy than identical 1970 models--I know, I lived through it. So, 1973 is hardly a very good benchmark year to compare against.
Worse yet, while vehicle fuel economy has improved, average annual miles driven has exploded in the years since 1973, the number of vehicles per capita has increased largely, and the total vehicle fleet has increased monumentally. Meanwhile, domestic oil production has plummeted, and is very unlikely to increase by any significant enough amount to meet any more than the current percentage of domestic oil consumption--if it can even maintain that.
There is only one word for the current auto-dependent US transportation system and suburban living arrangement--****ed. The sooner we figure that out and begin moving to less suburbanization and less auto dependency, the better. The longer we wait, the more traumatic that inevitable transition is going to be, and the more of our economy and national security will be put at risk. My prediction is that, unfortunately, fuel prices are going to continue to go up--with all of the collateral economic damage that is causing--until we Americans get that concept through our thick, gasoline-inebriated skulls.
With gasoline prices now well over 4 dollars a gallon- in CT. I have no idea when this will stop.
Home heating oil now nearly $4.50 a gallon- it may cost 4-5 thousand dollars to heat some homes here in CT- this winter; we may see some homes actually 'abandoned' if prices remain this high.
Energy Crafted Home: Hartford, Connecticut, from Geothermal Heat Pump Consortium - Business White Papers, Webcasts and Case Studies - BNET.com (http://jobfunctions.bnet.com/abstract.aspx?docid=110223 - broken link)
$4-$5 grand sounds like a lot of bread. here are a few links for geothermal/ground source heat pumps in your neck of the woods. it is worth doing a little research on. also the new solar tubes are good for heating water all year around including overcast winter days. obviously they excel in summer but every little bit of energy saving helps. no?
Everyone needs to put in a wood stove, or some other form of heat. This is going to be a REAL problem for many. What are the older folks on fixed incomes going to do? This isn't a good thing no matter how you look at it. The warmer parts of the US will see an influx of people before it is over. Like in the old days, come winter, you shut down the house and live in 3-4 rooms, we're there again. Castle's are neat, but they are cold in the winter!
it might be worth doing a little research on groundsource/geothermal heat pumps in your area. also solar tubes (not photvoltaics) are highly effective in lowering your boilers energy consumption
So I am assuming their jobs were close to their home? How was mass transit in these places? Also what about scooters and motorcycles how popular were they? Man you make Europe sound like paradise, at least on the personal finance front.
trust me dude, we pay enough tax to make up for it!
Honestly, the cost of fuel doesn't affect me all that radically, because I am able to bus the 50-60 miles round trip to work each day.
The problem that I see, even now in the days of 4 dollar a gallon gas, is that people simply are unwilling to give up their cars. It's definitely a "seller's market", and as long as we have people (and corporations) who are insisting upon driving, it's not going to change.
As I was driving up to Canada last week (during their "long weekend") they were talking on the radio about the high price of gas, and how that will affect summer travel. The effect? None. People talk a good game, but inevitably suck it up. We, in North America, have grown up with a "car culture", and will die by it.
There has been one place where I have lived and commuted by mass transit, where there hasn't been this "stigma" associated with it, and that's in NY. Even where I am now, in Washington State (which should be greener than green), they've been advertising commuter transit. I just don't get it.
And, should oil hit 200 bucks a barrel, and gas go above 5 dollars a gallon, I don't see too many of the people I see alone in their cars abandoning them for other forms of transportation. After all, our cars are our sanctuary.
Honestly, the cost of fuel doesn't affect me all that radically, because I am able to bus the 50-60 miles round trip to work each day.
You forget that everything you eat, wear, live in, or enjoy takes fuel to produce and/or or transport. You WILL feel the cost of exploding fuel prices and diminishing oil supplies.
on a personal level i think gas at $10 would be fantastic. in the past we westerners were the only ones buying gas. the saudis had no choice but to sell to us. reagan effectively had fahd by the ****s! now that we are not the only ones buying(china/india) we have to compete on a global market for gas and exporting countries are not that happy about the print as we need strategy used by the fed.
imho the recession is going to come. it's going to be tough but it's not going to be the end of the world. i have lived in africa, middle east, europe, the states and now the uk. i have seen a fair bit of transition in my time and all that happens is that people learn how to make do.
my brother-in-law owns a lawn care business in tampa. he owns about eight 10 mile per gallon trucks. as far as he is concerned these are absolutley 10000% essential for his trade. the funny thing is i now guys in south africa and zim who have similar businesses and they cope with this. similar roads to the US, distances etc
they just use lighter weight trailers. so they don't go as fast, but they handle better and can stop quicker.
then you take a country like israel. no natural resources so they got to be a bit more frugal. after 1973 they started using these to heat their water. in the 70's
you might argue that they won't work in alaska, but you'd have a tough time convincing me that floridians, texans, californians etc should still be using full electric boilers.
you go a bit further north to sweden, denmark and germany, and there homes are so well insulated that some run on the body heat of the inhabitants, plus the radiant heat from the refrigerator Swedish Building Heated With Body Heat
when you are on the subcontinent you might find that there are people who have novel uses for cow dung(many of them use human waste too)
when i swith on mtv and watch shows like my "sweet 16 birthday" i actually cringe at how spoilled we've become.
so i am quite looking forward to the challenge of $10 gas and there's a whole generation of kids who need to learn what life is like with the candle burning that much closer to their butts!
i'm going to sleep. looking forward to seeing some more whingers lamenting the unaffordabilty of SUV's on this thread tomorrow!
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