[Cambium]

I agree with the above comments.

Accuweather 2015-16 Winter Forecast

Link to follow later today... Way too much to post.

Key points for winter


1. Below-normal precipitation, below-normal snowfall and milder-than-normal temperatures across the interior Northwest and northern Rockies. Warm PDO and split flow will lead to weaker fronts.

2. Significant wet and snowy periods expected in the Southwest; a very active, shifty storm track from start to finish this winter; heaviest precipitation can be in January and February with potential flooding.

3. Texas Panhandle can have above-normal snow, southern Plains above-normal precipitation, just past the much above criteria in southeastern Texas. There can be at least four or five big events in the Plains.

4. There is a good chance that several storms will make impacts in the central Plains, Midwest, mid- to upper Mississippi Valley late fall and early winter, then again late winter and early spring. This can lead to near-normal precipitation, near-normal snowfall, but still milder-than-normal temperatures overall.

5. Lack of arctic shots for much of the early and midwinter will lead to a low lake-effect season in the Great Lakes where snowfall and precipitation overall can be below normal.

6. We lean toward below-normal precipitation and snowfall in the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. It could be wet early in the season. Northern areas of this region look to be the driest.

7. Gulf Coast region into the Southeast can have frequent big rain events that over time can lead to higher flood risk. Also, there can be more frequent fog events in the mornings.

8. Northeast will be wet and mild through the middle of the season but could turn colder and snowier in February, not as brutal as last year. Snow events could linger into March. Confidence is lower and is addressed more in the discussion.

9. Higher chance for above-normal snowfall and ice storms in upstate New York, northern New England into Canada this winter where rain events along the coast early in the season can be snow events in the high elevations.

10. Severe weather, typical for strong El Nino, can impact Florida Peninsula, southern Georgia and South Carolina; warm PDO favors wet Southeast.

[Cambium]

#5 in the key points is very important but I remember waving the white flag giving up on winter in December last year even up to the New Year...... then we all know what happened.

Just have to keep an eye on Siberia snowpack, Hudson Bay Ice and Canadian cold and snow to see if things are building up north.

IMO Without Canada and Hudson Bay being cold with Ice and snowpack, it's probably impossible to be cold and snowy in the U.S. There has to be a cold source from somewhere!

I personally believe it will be another "2nd half" type winter starting in January. I'm actually worried about an early snowstorm with leaves still on the trees!

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Accuweather 2015-16 Winter Forecast

Link to follow... Way too much to post.

Link: not as detailed as the Accu Pro subscription with Paulie P blog but here's the free public version..

US Winter Forecast: Northeast to Dodge Winter's Brutal Cold; Rain, Snow to Dent California Drought

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

#5 in the key points is very important but I remember waving the white flag giving up on winter in December last year even up to the New Year...... then we all know what happened.

Just have to keep an eye on Siberia snowpack, Hudson Bay Ice and Canadian cold and snow to see if things are building up north.

IMO Without Canada and Hudson Bay being cold with Ice and snowpack, it's probably impossible to be cold and snowy in the U.S. There has to be a cold source from somewhere!

I personally believe it will be another "2nd half" type winter starting in January. I'm actually worried about an early snowstorm with leaves still on the trees!

LOL on accuweather with "not as drastic as last year" forecast. No **** sherlock as that was once in 500 year February.

[WouldLoveTo]

Originally Posted by jp03

LOL on accuweather with "not as drastic as last year" forecast. No **** sherlock as that was once in 500 year February.

Ya right! "Not as brutal" can still be pretty bad

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by jp03

LOL on accuweather with "not as drastic as last year" forecast. No **** sherlock as that was once in 500 year February.

LOL!! Guess they are trying to comfort those who are worried it would happen again. They should of put "Can be Brutal but not like the 17th century"

Another beautiful Early October day. Upper 60s at lunch time with bright blue. Enjoy guys

[Cambium]

Also.. look at that map of the storm track on the left under "Stronger Blend of El Nino"..

That Low Pressure in that position coming up would give us rain in CT...what if that's 100 miles East more, that would mean the entire "Heavier Snow" blue area would shift over us as well. How do you know details like that when we don't 4 days out? So why even put the Storm track like that?

Maybe it's so they don't hype the big cities with snow? Entertaining.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

LOL!! Guess they are trying to comfort those who are worried it would happen again. They should of put "Can be Brutal but not like the 17th century"

Another beautiful Early October day. Upper 60s at lunch time with bright blue. Enjoy guys

You know the key this time of year is that weaker sun. A 70 degree day with the weaker sun makes it feel almost cool.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Also.. look at that map of the storm track on the left under "Stronger Blend of El Nino"..

That Low Pressure in that position coming up would give us rain in CT...what if that's 100 miles East more, that would mean the entire "Heavier Snow" blue area would shift over us as well. How do you know details like that when we don't 4 days out? So why even put the Storm track like that?

Maybe it's so they don't hype the big cities with snow? Entertaining.

It is comical

The intent I think is to say this will be a prevailing "pattern" under those climatic conditions.

I mean let me ramble on...as late as December last year not one long term forecast picked up the brutal cold...heck I don't think they picked up the cold at all till early January. !

Useless stuff that they feel the need to entertain us with.

As I've said in the past...when one of these agencies correctly forecasts a long term warm/cold outbreak or precip pattern successfully...then we should listen. Till then? toilet paper.

[Cambium]

Just when I thought we were entering a rainier pattern, nope.. another long dry spell. Already 4 days or something + another 7 maybe. And another front without rain? I thought we were going to get rain Friday for sure?!

Anyway ... Bring in those sensitive plants Saturday and Sunday. 1st frost of the season maybe.
Warmer near the coast of course.