[Cambium]

Looking at a few more latest trends...

1. Atmosphere is juiced up all the way to 20,000 feet unlike last time which had dry layers. Pacific and Gulf moisture being used now.

2. Here is the latest RAP radar forecast for tomorrow at about 1pm. The yellows indicate 35-40dbz which would mean heavy snow. You can play through the loop to see before and after hours.

Going to be interesting to watch this one too.

[Cambium]

New NAM model just out. If this is right we're going to see some heavy snow around 10am in those areas in yellow. All layer temps are below freezing from surface to the Satellites. All about moisture this time.

[Cambium]

Boston issues special statement but no advisories yet.

SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING...INTENSIFYING AROUND
THE LATE-MORNING INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF INTO
EVENING. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES DUE TO SNOW-BANDING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTH-COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED

[Cambium]

Upton at its finest!! Guess I'll need 2 cups of coffee. Heads up guys.

[Cambium]

Quick hitter but 4-6" in a 6hr period you know what that means. I would stay off the roads between 10-2pm.

Current Radar and Temps and who's reporting the snow. You can see the northern edge already starting to juice up the atmosphere.

[Cambium]

Future Radar Loop

http://hp6.wright-weather.com/wrf_nm...loop_1hour.gif

[Brian26]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Upton at its finest!! Guess I'll need 2 cups of coffee. Heads up guys.

Looks like a Southern CT special. Most school's in CT look closed today.

Snow will not melt anytime soon either. Temps look to stay quite cold into next week. Will look like winter out there for awhile with snow on the ground and well below normal temps for this time of year. Single digits for Thursday night.

Starting to look like more snow is possibile on Saturday too.

• Today Snow, mainly before 3pm. High near 32. West wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
• Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 12. West wind 7 to 10 mph.
• Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 28. West wind 8 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
• Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11. Southwest wind 5 to 7 mph.
• Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 24. Northwest wind 5 to 8 mph.
• Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 6.
• Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 29.
• Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17.
• Saturday Rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
• Saturday Night Rain, snow, and freezing rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
• Sunday Partly sunny, with a high near 36.
• Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 12.
• Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 27.

[Cambium]

Upton: Quick explaination. Areas above freezing this morning might start as rain but conditions help them drop and support snow. Radar showing virga well in front of storm so snow to fall a bit sooner now. Ratios of 12:1 near coast and 15-20:1 inland. That means Light fluffy snow and it means higher totals with less liquid falling through atmosphere.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
623 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING ON WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT FALLEN OFF AS FAR EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND AS EXPECTED...SO HAVE INTRODUCED A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN MIXING WITH THE SNOW AT THE ONSET AT THESE
LOCATIONS. GIVEN INCREASING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL ACROSS THE REGION - WOULD EXPECT SURFACE
LAYER TO QUICKLY FALL TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING - SUPPORTING ALL
SNOW. BECAUSE ANY MIX WILL HAPPEN WHILE THE PRECIPITATION IS
LIGHT - IT SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON EXPECTED AMOUNTS. THEREFORE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE NOT BEEN CHANGED.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW STRETCHING FROM NW
VA INTO S CENTRAL PA. THIS SHOULD REACH WESTERN ZONES BY MID
MORNING. HAVE NOTICED VIRGA FILLING IN AHEAD OF THIS BAND...SO
THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL THAT THE PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN
FALLING SOONER THAN THE ARRIVAL OF THIS BAND.

MSAS ANALYSIS AT 10Z HAD A 1013 LOW OVER WESTERN NC...WITH
PRESSURE FALLS INDICATING IT WILL TRACK TO THE ENE THEN NE THIS
MORNING. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NE IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING 700-500 HPA TROUGH. CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS TAKES THE
LOW TO THE SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SO
THIS...COUPLED WITH ONGOING LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
YIELD A P-TYPE OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF MAYBE 1-2 HOURS THIS MORNING OVER THE TWIN FORKS
WHERE SOME RAIN MIGHT BE MIXED IN BEFORE TEMPERATURES WETBULB TO
FREEZING.

TEMPERATURES ARE CRITICAL TO THIS FORECAST - EXPECT GENERALLY SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ONCE THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WET-BULBING OF
TEMPERATURE - ESPECIALLY NOTING THAT LOWER DEWPOINT AIR IS BEING
ADVECTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS WILL PLACE NORTHERN ZONES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S AND SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND 30. THIS TEMPERATURE FALL
OFF WILL ALLOW FOR RATIOS OF AROUND 12:1 ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND
15-20:1 INLAND.

RAP/NAM/GFS/SREF/ECMWF ALL SHOW AN AREA OF FAIRLY STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS FROM 700-500 HPA CROSSING THE AREA THIS MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE CORE IF IT TRACING FROM JUST W OF NYC ON
NE INTO S CT.

GIVEN THE RATIO AND THE BANDING - APPEARS EVEN WITH QPF AROUND 1/3
OF AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES + AND AROUND .2" ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES...EXPECT A 3-5" SNOWFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UNDER STRONGER SNOW BANDS. THE SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION FAIRLY QUICKLY...MAINLY OVER A 6-8 HOUR PERIOD FROM
13-21Z.

AS A RESULT HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO THE ENTIRE
CWA AND ADJUSTED ITS TIMING. FOR NE NJ AND THE WESTERN LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY - IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 11Z-21Z. FOR NYC/LONG ISLAND/EASTERN
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/S CT THE ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM
12Z-22Z. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR DURING THE SNOWBANDS WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED 500-700 HPA FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMUM FROM 14-19Z FROM SW
TO NE ACROSS THE AREA.

[SeaDoo342]

Already snowing in Danbury

[Cambium]

Flurries to light snow within 5 minutes. Wow. Dusting of snow within 10 minutes.
33° and snowing lightly