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The reason I’m mentioning inflation now is because it absolutely must be taken into account when calculating GDP growth over a long period of time (especially during a time we’re seeing record inflation). Taking inflation into account changes everything, especially when you’re trying to present hard numbers over the span of a decade.
Nobody here is projecting “doom and gloom” for Connecticut, and we can keep screaming “we have great rankings”, but it can’t be ignored that the growth that helped attain those high rankings is severely lagging. That is just a fact that cannot really be refuted.
Most economists btw see very high inflation into 2023 at minimum, so it is a huge factor. It's part of what made the Carter era tragic-it was not a several months spike. It was multiple years running.
I would love to see data (unsure where to look) on jobs lost vs gained in Ct. JayCt has posted about several new Amazon DCs, and while better than squat, they would LOWER Ct median income. We are starting to lose 700 People's hq jobs which are well above Ct median wages.
I have not seen many new company announcements here which immediately struck me as being above Ct median wage.
I, like you, want to see where we are heading, as opposed to simply where we are. The former is what disturbs me.
Most economists btw see very high inflation into 2023 at minimum, so it is a huge factor. It's part of what made the Carter era tragic-it was not a several months spike. It was multiple years running.
I would love to see data (unsure where to look) on jobs lost vs gained in Ct. JayCt has posted about several new Amazon DCs, and while better than squat, they would LOWER Ct median income. We are starting to lose 700 People's hq jobs which are well above Ct median wages.
I have not seen many new company announcements here which immediately struck me as being above Ct median wage.
I, like you, want to see where we are heading, as opposed to simply where we are. The former is what disturbs me.
Most economists btw see very high inflation into 2023 at minimum, so it is a huge factor. It's part of what made the Carter era tragic-it was not a several months spike. It was multiple years running.
I would love to see data (unsure where to look) on jobs lost vs gained in Ct. JayCt has posted about several new Amazon DCs, and while better than squat, they would LOWER Ct median income. We are starting to lose 700 People's hq jobs which are well above Ct median wages.
I have not seen many new company announcements here which immediately struck me as being above Ct median wage.
I, like you, want to see where we are heading, as opposed to simply where we are. The former is what disturbs me.
Exactly. Inflation was very high under Nixon and Ford. Inflation was not new under Carter but it got coupled with 1979 oil crisis (also one in 1973) then hostage crisis, making him one term president. It pretty much cemented his legacy as bad president. Probably not fair but it is how chips fall. Presidents have little control over economics during first term. I agree on job mix. It will take two people working at Amazon to replace one well-paying job. That seems to be model that CT is headed towards, two earners mandatory. Also, means more competition for white collar folks that remain.
The reason I’m mentioning inflation now is because it absolutely must be taken into account when calculating GDP growth over a long period of time (especially during a time we’re seeing record inflation). Taking inflation into account changes everything, especially when you’re trying to present hard numbers over the span of a decade.
Nobody here is projecting “doom and gloom” for Connecticut, and we can keep screaming “we have great rankings”, but it can’t be ignored that the growth that helped attain those high rankings is severely lagging. That is just a fact that cannot really be refuted.
We actually agree that CT had a good quality of life (education and health). I’m not quite sure, though, where you’re disagreeing with me here. Are you suggesting CT’s GDP growth isn’t as low as nearly every source says? Or that the lag in growth will affect its rankings?
Are you kidding me??? Have you not followed this thread or it’s predecessors since it was started? It’s full of cries of doom and gloom, “the sky is falling” and “the end is near”. Same goes for other threads that debate or discuss the condition of our state. Open your eyes to what is posted.
What you call “screaming” is not that at all. It is giving facts on the actual condition of our state. While you and others drone on about low growth in Gross Domestic Product, people don’t realize that we are among the top five unless it is pointed out. In case you haven’t noticed, most media articles on the subject fail to mention that.
Then there’s the misinformation on taxes here and those overly simplistic and inaccurate analyses from highly biased organizations. People are surprised when more comprehensive and objective analyses actually show we are not nearly as badly rated as those organizations like to contend. Add to that is the fact that Connecticut is No. 1 in disposable income even when taxes are considered. Shocking!
In addition you have those analyses that compare state to state expenditures which fail to take into account that other states have county levels of government that provide some of the services provided or debts incurred by our state. Not a fair comparison at all.
People are also surprised when I show that property taxes for comparable homes in comparable communities in other states have taxes that aren’t that much lower if at all, than ours. If these things were actually more objectively addressed, I would not have to mention them. Jay
Most economists btw see very high inflation into 2023 at minimum, so it is a huge factor. It's part of what made the Carter era tragic-it was not a several months spike. It was multiple years running.
I would love to see data (unsure where to look) on jobs lost vs gained in Ct. JayCt has posted about several new Amazon DCs, and while better than squat, they would LOWER Ct median income. We are starting to lose 700 People's hq jobs which are well above Ct median wages.
I have not seen many new company announcements here which immediately struck me as being above Ct median wage.
I, like you, want to see where we are heading, as opposed to simply where we are. The former is what disturbs me.
I won’t get into your completely unfair attempted equation/comparison of lost white collar bank headquarters jobs to new blue collar warehousing/logistic jobs but they aren’t necessarily filled by the same type of workers.
Those Amazon DC jobs are not replacing bank headquarters jobs, relocation of companies like Phillip Morris and ITT or expansion of local companies like Charter Communication, Webster Bank or Bigelow Tea are doing that, they are replacing lost retail jobs. In fact, the just announced new DC in Waterbury and Naugatuck noted this and noted that those new jobs not only pay more, they have much better benefits. That facility is anticipated to add 1,000 jobs which will be a nice addition to the greater Waterbury area. Jay
Governor Lamont is proposing a number of tax cuts before upcoming the election totaling $336 million. They include expanding the property tax credit to all middle class property owners and upping the credit from $200 to $300; limiting the mill rate on motor vehicles to 29 mills and making up the difference to the towns; accelerating the income tax on pensions and annuities phase out; and expanding the business tax credit for businesses that assist employees paying student loan debts.
Of course the Republicans are saying it’s not enough. Bob Stefanowski has talked about cutting the sales tax from 6.35% to 5.99% and eliminating the extra 1% tax on restaurant meals.
Given it’s an election year, it’s pretty certain that a tax cut will be implemented this year. Will see what the Legislature agrees to in the upcoming session. Jay
It is a token effort by Lamont. I would favor the following:
1) A 3 year (sunset law) personal income tax liability credit = 5% of the full liability. So, if the table says John owes $3,000, he deducts $150 in addition to deducting his amount withheld when doing his taxes. Annual cost: $470mm/based on $9.4B 2020 collected
2) Reduce restaurant sales tax to 3% again (sunset law) until we have 2 consecutive years (Federal stats used) of <3% inflation on food plus less than 4% wage inflation. Restaurants are doubly hurting, as due to giant 2021 inflation, they must raise prices pre tax. Lower the customer bill and that should increase volume.
3) Reduce Ct hotel taxes by 50%, until the industry returns to 90% of pre covid hotel revenue for one full Ct fiscal year. That incentivizes tourist travel.
It is a token effort by Lamont. I would favor the following:
1) A 3 year (sunset law) personal income tax liability credit = 5% of the full liability. So, if the table says John owes $3,000, he deducts $150 in addition to deducting his amount withheld when doing his taxes. Annual cost: $470mm/based on $9.4B 2020 collected
2) Reduce restaurant sales tax to 3% again (sunset law) until we have 2 consecutive years (Federal stats used) of <3% inflation on food plus less than 4% wage inflation. Restaurants are doubly hurting, as due to giant 2021 inflation, they must raise prices pre tax. Lower the customer bill and that should increase volume.
3) Reduce Ct hotel taxes by 50%, until the industry returns to 90% of pre covid hotel revenue for one full Ct fiscal year. That incentivizes tourist travel.
How much is this going to cost the state? Can the state afford it?
It’s nice that you want to help the industries that are struggling but I’m not sure those will really do much good. They’d still be struggling for business to return either way.
Also while our state is doing well right now, no one knows how long that will last so I wouldn’t count on any of it being long term. Above all our state needs to practice fiscal conservancy and make sure we are prepared for the inevitable economic downturn. That means putting as much as we can into our pension funds now so the burden can be reduced in the future. Jay
How much is this going to cost the state? Can the state afford it?
It’s nice that you want to help the industries that are struggling but I’m not sure those will really do much good. They’d still be struggling for business to return either way.
Also while our state is doing well right now, no one knows how long that will last so I wouldn’t count on any of it being long term. Above all our state needs to practice fiscal conservancy and make sure we are prepared for the inevitable economic downturn. That means putting as much as we can into our pension funds now so the burden can be reduced in the future. Jay
It should be well under our surplus, and the last 2 ideas should cost the state very little. The first one I'd just want to see a 3 year tryout on, which hopefully pushes us to a better economic period when ended.
Restaurants would generate more taxable sales, reducing the impact of paying a lower rate, as would hotels. BOTH would employ more people as a result, reducing demand on state social services.
I also think citizens would spend much of the income tax cut, further aiding our economy.
Historically when tax rates have been cut, spending on the items affected by it rose, which reduces the impact of the cut in aggregate.
If you noticed, I would only like a tax cut with a sunset date, which is how Ct should have passed Weicker's Temporary income tax. When have you ever seen Democrats raise taxes though with a sunset date? Sunset dates allow all to reassess the situation when they end, instead of simply enacting cuts in perpetuity.
PS: What downturn, Jay? We are 70k below 2019 employment, and our recovery rate of jobs ranks below 40 plus states. Ct has NOT left the downturn. Are you expecting a massive Ct job loss while we are still under 2019 employment levels already? If so, we need no state government. We need a padlock.
I would argue to do things that are more targeted rather than broad based. One of the major complaints isn't so much the tax level but the tax itself.
I'd propose this
Sales taxes
End the sales tax on clothing. Mass, NY and RI (all neighboring states) only tax clothing if it goes above a given level. For an individual that's affluent it isn't that big of a deal but a small family it is. An occasional shirt, shoes, jacket etc. It adds up.
End the sales taxes on used goods. Think about appliances for a moment. You are willing to take a risk on something not lasting as long but then you take a hit on taxes. Chances are used goods have ALREADY paid the sales tax so what's the point?
Lower the gas taxes, mostly with diesel. The gasoline tax is actually pretty close to other states but the diesel. Why's this an issue? Well if you get anything shipped most significant trucking is diesel.
OK how do we pay for it. Well the tolls can pay for gas tax relief taking a page from RI. Cut uconn sports that's a loss of 50 million annually. Yes there's pride in it but it loses 50 million a year. End the film tax credit. yeah it's nice Pratt Street is a backdrop for a Hallmark movie but is it worth 500 million?
Let's say you drive a diesel truck and have a small family in a area that borders other states. So slightly higher sales tax, much higher fuel taxes, no exemption on clothing where do you think you are going to shop? The economy of scale plays a factor even with chain stores. From where I am in stafford it takes the same amount of time to go to walmart in springfield vs Willimantic. There's much more on Boston road vs Willimantic that's on top of the taxes.
The other issue I see is electrical costs. No one in the state should legitimately fear losing their power in a storm. Electric bills are way too high. Create more municipal electric organizations. Every time Eversource has to prepair they have to bring people from other states. Ok fine but what if they have issues there? It's hard to take pride in solving things locally if towns don't have power to provide basic services.
Sometimes I see towns that literally don't do anything. Regional school district, water and sewer separate, elderly services are regional, road services from the state, pensions independent, electric independent, not much for crime so they don't really fund police etc. "But it's a nice small town". Yeah I get that but nice doing what exactly?
The real long term issue though isn't sales taxes shopping but simply getting people here. If manufactures have thousands of job openings eventually they'll have to either automate the work or move it somewhere else. What if electric boat moves? Obviously they have to be by the water (saltwater) but they already have multiple offices in neighboring states (RI). I would not be surprised if in another 10-15 years it moves to the fall river and new bedford areas. You already have a rail line being made from Boston and it's only 30-45 minutes from their RI offices. New London county has about 355 people per sq mile Bristol is at 800...Again this isn't overnight but if Mass could get the pawsox to move and a new stadium I don't think this is out of the question in another 10-15 years. Higher population density, more access to more with public transit and probably more looking for work.
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