[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Temps will be seasonable so it wont be a cold night. Here's the Euro temps for Thursday morning.

Euro shows 1-4 feet of snow from Virginia to WV, NC, Parts of Kentucky and TN.

Funny thing about that is most of those snow areas are in the 80s right now! In fact, even Buffalo, NY is 80-deg!

[gtmo]

How far south does it need to hit in order for CT to avoid the bad stuff?

[7 Wishes]

BTW, latest OKX discussion (1:55pm today)......sounds like they feel there's still more uncertainty at play.

ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF BOTH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE IMPACTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY. DRY CONDS EXPECTED FRIDAY...BUT SOME RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SAT...MAINLY IN WESTERN ZONES AS TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS STREAMING UP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOW CHC POPS IS SUFFICIENT FOR THIS POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY COULD BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BANDS OF RAIN BEGINNING TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE REGION. A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL ALSO PRODUCE INCREASING/GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE AREA...AS WELL AS COASTAL FLOODING ON SUNDAY. LOW PREDICTABILITY REMAINS IN THE 00Z/25 MODEL SUITE...WITH LARGE VARIABILITY REMAINING WITH THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF SANDY. DUE TO THE CONTINUED HIGH UNCERTAINTY FROM THESE MODEL INCONSISTENCIES HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE GRIDS BEYOND SUNDAY. THE MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLNS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE GENERAL SOLN OF TAKING SANDY ON A NNE TRACK FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO BETWEEN 300-400 MILES SE OF CAPE HATTERAS ON SUNDAY. BEYOND THIS POINT IS WHERE LARGE DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY AS A RESULT OF ITS INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE W AND STRONG BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM. THE GFS/GFS ENS MEAN AND CMC TRACK THE SYSTEM EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH SUN NIGHT/MON THEN RECURVE IT BACK TO THE NW. THE 18Z/24 AND 00Z/25 RUNS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN THE 12Z/24 RUN AND SUBSEQUENTLY TAKES THE CYCLONE SLIGHTLY LONGER TO REACH THE COAST ONCE IT RECURVES BACK TOWARDS NOAM. THIS IS ALSO RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD TRACK...WITH A NORLUN TROUGH DEVELOPING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STORM AND THE CYCLONE HITTING NOVA SCOTIA ON MON. AT THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM...THE 00Z/25 ECMWF HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH ITS 12Z/24 RUN TRACKING THE CYCLONE INTO DELAWARE/SOUTHERN NJ MON NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER. THE GFDL AND NOGAPS ALSO SUPPORT THIS SOLN. THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE INCLUDING CMC...GFS ENS MEAN AND MOST INDIVIDUAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLNS TRACKING IT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE TWO PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOCATIONS. A FEW GFS ENS MEMBERS STILL ARE TAKING THE STORM OUT TO SEA...ALTHOUGH THE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS CONTINUES TO DECREASE AND CONFIDENCE OF A POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT EVENT LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK IS INCREASING. AS SANDY TRACKS NORTH...BROAD H5 TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WHETHER THIS TROUGH PUSHES SANDY OUT TO SEA INITIALLY BEFORE SWINGING IT BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST OR PICKS IT UP AND BRINGS IT ALONG THE COAST REMAINS TO BE SEEN. THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SANDY OUT TO SEA...WHILE THE ECMWF IS PICKING IT UP AND BRINGING IT ALONG THE COAST. ONCE AGAIN...THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST WITH THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTING MANY DIFFERENT LOW TRACK SCENARIOS. UPPER AIR DATA SHOULD HELP MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THE NEXT 24H.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

BTW, latest OKX discussion (1:55pm today)......sounds like they feel there's still more uncertainty at play.

ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF BOTH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE IMPACTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY. DRY CONDS EXPECTED FRIDAY...BUT SOME RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SAT...MAINLY IN WESTERN ZONES AS TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS STREAMING UP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOW CHC POPS IS SUFFICIENT FOR THIS POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY COULD BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BANDS OF RAIN BEGINNING TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE REGION. A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL ALSO PRODUCE INCREASING/GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE AREA...AS WELL AS COASTAL FLOODING ON SUNDAY. LOW PREDICTABILITY REMAINS IN THE 00Z/25 MODEL SUITE...WITH LARGE VARIABILITY REMAINING WITH THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF SANDY. DUE TO THE CONTINUED HIGH UNCERTAINTY FROM THESE MODEL INCONSISTENCIES HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE GRIDS BEYOND SUNDAY. THE MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLNS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE GENERAL SOLN OF TAKING SANDY ON A NNE TRACK FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO BETWEEN 300-400 MILES SE OF CAPE HATTERAS ON SUNDAY. BEYOND THIS POINT IS WHERE LARGE DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY AS A RESULT OF ITS INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE W AND STRONG BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM. THE GFS/GFS ENS MEAN AND CMC TRACK THE SYSTEM EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH SUN NIGHT/MON THEN RECURVE IT BACK TO THE NW. THE 18Z/24 AND 00Z/25 RUNS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN THE 12Z/24 RUN AND SUBSEQUENTLY TAKES THE CYCLONE SLIGHTLY LONGER TO REACH THE COAST ONCE IT RECURVES BACK TOWARDS NOAM. THIS IS ALSO RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD TRACK...WITH A NORLUN TROUGH DEVELOPING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STORM AND THE CYCLONE HITTING NOVA SCOTIA ON MON. AT THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM...THE 00Z/25 ECMWF HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH ITS 12Z/24 RUN TRACKING THE CYCLONE INTO DELAWARE/SOUTHERN NJ MON NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER. THE GFDL AND NOGAPS ALSO SUPPORT THIS SOLN. THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE INCLUDING CMC...GFS ENS MEAN AND MOST INDIVIDUAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLNS TRACKING IT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE TWO PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOCATIONS. A FEW GFS ENS MEMBERS STILL ARE TAKING THE STORM OUT TO SEA...ALTHOUGH THE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS CONTINUES TO DECREASE AND CONFIDENCE OF A POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT EVENT LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK IS INCREASING. AS SANDY TRACKS NORTH...BROAD H5 TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WHETHER THIS TROUGH PUSHES SANDY OUT TO SEA INITIALLY BEFORE SWINGING IT BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST OR PICKS IT UP AND BRINGS IT ALONG THE COAST REMAINS TO BE SEEN. THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SANDY OUT TO SEA...WHILE THE ECMWF IS PICKING IT UP AND BRINGING IT ALONG THE COAST. ONCE AGAIN...THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST WITH THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTING MANY DIFFERENT LOW TRACK SCENARIOS. UPPER AIR DATA SHOULD HELP MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THE NEXT 24H.

Actually it looks like unfortunately there is more certainty by the minute. Very dangerous situation developing.

[Cambium]

NWS Buffalo

"The NWS tries not to 'hype' storms. However, with today's social media, it is already clear that Sandy will evolve and take on a life of it's own through online conversations. This image shows one of our models forecasting a record low pressure as it moves onshore, although it's doubtful the storm will look exactly like this by Tuesday evening (00Z Wed). While the hype will reach a feverish pitch over the next several days, at least we'll all be wary of a possibly historic and potentially dangerous storm for parts of the Northeast US. Locally, our concerns are **possible** flooding, higher elevation snow, and a northeast wind, but we've got several days to fine tune the forecast"

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by gtmo

How far south does it need to hit in order for CT to avoid the bad stuff?

Good question. I would say anywhere south of Baltimore ... OR North of Boston. I'd want to be outside the center by about 100 miles at least.

Put it this way... Euro even hitting Virginia/Del Marva has sustained winds for the NYC area range from 60 to 70 MPH, thats because of the strength it shows.

Wind fields expand more at our latitudes I believe. Someone correct me on that. Winds extend farther out up this way.

[yankees28]

Usually you dont want to be in the northest quadrant on hurricanes, so anything south jersey would be ideal, even southern jersey. Not sure if the rules apply to this thing or not with all the different factors.

[Cambium]

Im looking up at the trees and telling them to hurry up and drop the leaves. lol Less leaves = more wind flowing through the branches which would help a little.

Who prefers snow and 50mph winds now?

[kidyankee764]

Originally Posted by Cambium

New Euro out has it going into Virginia!! Are the models trending south?? Since the GFS went to NYC, now Euro goes to Virginia. NYC northward get spared the brunt of it.

Does this change your thoughts on a NYC hit?

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by kidyankee764

Does this change your thoughts on a NYC hit?

Yes... I want to see what the 00z runs show. Maybe NJ hit now. Dont forget the rain bands will be whipping counter clockwise right into us.

Next GFS at 5:30pm. Then the 00z at 11pm.
EURO at 2am