COVID-19 General Colorado Thread (Denver, Pueblo: agriculture, move to, manufacturing)

[TCHP]

Its a real pisser because as an essential business, we have to self certify that we are adhering the state mandated guidelines for us to remain operational. Yet you have people, in this case a mayor of a major city, that blatantly disregard basic precautions.

[Vision67]

New modeling report shows COVID-19 data in Colorado trending ‘much better than most states’ according to state epidemiologist

https://www.kktv.com/2020/12/19/new-...pidemiologist/

"DENVER (KKTV) - The COVID-19 data in Colorado is trending in the right direction.

Friday afternoon El Paso County Public Health shared a positive update on a decrease in COVID-19 cases over the past couple of weeks. Then Friday night, the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment alongside the Colorado School of Public Health released an updated statewide modeling report. The modeling report shows there is no evidence of a Thanksgiving bump, up to 18 days after the holiday. The report also shows the current level of transmission control, hospital demand and cases should continue to decline.

“The steady downward trend in Colorado is not what is being seen across the country. Colorado’s trend is much better than most states. Coloradans’ actions and Colorado policies made a difference and prevented a substantial Thanksgiving surge and have led to the declines we are seeing now,” said Dr. Rachel Herlihy, state epidemiologist, CDPHE.

The models are based on Colorado data and assumptions based on the current state of the science. However, there is still a concern with holidays like Christmas on the horizon.

“We can’t let up now. Hope is on the horizon with the vaccine. We need to make it through the holidays with the level of diligence we had over Thanksgiving. Please only celebrate in-person with the people who live with you,” said Jill Hunsaker Ryan, executive director, CDPHE. “The best gift we can all receive is a healthy holiday season.”

[sammy87]

Yeah cases/hospitilizations are dropping fast.....Good news! Never was the 2nd wave after Thanksgiving.

[Vision67]

Colorado’s COVID-19 situation is improving — so health officials are worried people will let their guard down

Small or moderate increase in close contacts over Christmas likely wouldn’t be enough to overwhelm hospitals

https://www.denverpost.com/2020/12/2...-thanksgiving/

"New COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations are falling in Colorado as Christmas approaches, but relaxing health precautions too quickly could set up another deadly spike, health officials warned Monday.

The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment reported 17,671 new cases of the novel coronavirus last week, which was the lowest level since the start of October.

As of Monday afternoon, 1,386 people were hospitalized with either confirmed or suspected COVID-19. That was the lowest level since Nov. 14.

State epidemiologist Dr. Rachel Herlihy said Friday that cases and hospitalizations are still above their spring levels. Still, it’s clear Colorado hasn’t seen the post-Thanksgiving spike that some states have, she said.

“Our numbers remain high overall and call for continued action,” she said. “Colorado’s actions and Colorado’s policies have made a difference.”

It’s not clear whether COVID-19 deaths have begun to decrease, because reports can be delayed two weeks or longer. The state hit a record high of 456 deaths reported during the week ending Dec. 6.

While the numbers are improving statewide, some counties are still dealing with growing outbreaks. Starting Tuesday, Pitkin County will require most industries to follow Level Red restrictions on the state’s dial framework. There’s an exception for restaurants, which will still be able to allow indoor dining at 25% of capacity, according to The Aspen Times. Personal gatherings will be prohibited.

If the downward trajectory continues, schools could begin offering in-person classes again in the New Year, Herlihy said. But for that to happen, everyone needs to “stay the course” and continue distancing and wearing masks over the holidays, she said.

“If we can avoid a Christmas and New Year’s spike, we can get our numbers back to spring levels in time for school reopenings,” she said.


If the current rate of decline continues, Colorado could reach the level of infections it had during the spring peak by mid-January, said Beth Carlton, an associate professor of occupational and environmental health at the Colorado School of Public Health. It would take until March to get back to the relatively safe summer levels, she said.

A small or moderate increase in close contacts over Christmas weekend likely wouldn’t be enough to overwhelm hospitals, Carlton said, though more people would get sick and die. The bigger concern is a sustained change in people’s behavior, she said.

“The thing we’re most concerned about is people letting down their guard, or major policy changes,” she said. “If we go back to mid-October (levels of precautions), we could be in trouble.”

The latest projections, from Wednesday, estimated about one in 59 people in Colorado are currently contagious with the virus.

Masks, keeping six feet of distance, handwashing, increasing ventilation and other precautions all reduce the odds the virus will successfully jump from a contagious person to someone who’s not yet immune. They all have weaknesses, though, and the more people who are contagious, the greater the odds the virus gets through. Imagine storming a castle with thousands of soldiers, versus only a few dozen. The more soldiers — or people transmitting the virus — the greater the odds the defenses fail.

A coalition of six public health agencies in the Denver area released a statement Monday asking the public not to let up on precautions. While the trends are encouraging, they could easily reverse, said Dr. Bill Burman, executive director of Denver Public Health.

“Now is the worst time for us to become complacent,” he said. “Our counties still have very high case rates, and we have already witnessed the health and economic consequences of loosening distancing and mitigation policies too quickly.”

Since March, 311,036 people in Colorado have tested positive for the new coronavirus, and 17,228 have been hospitalized. The state has reported 4,378 coronavirus-related deaths."

[Mike from back east]

The first case in the USA of that COVID-19 variant in the U.K. has been found - in Colorado. Story in WaPo.

Excerpt: "Colorado officials on Tuesday reported the first known case in the United States of a person infected with the mutation-laden coronavirus variant that has been circulating rapidly across much of the United Kingdom and has led to a lockdown of much of southern England. The case involves a male in his 20s who is currently in isolation in Elbert County and has no travel history, according to a tweet from the office of Gov. Jared Polis. “The individual has no close contacts identified so far but public health officials are working to identify other potential cases and contacts through thorough contact tracing interviews,” the tweet said."

[BarryK123]

Lucky us!

[brightdoglover]

I looked up Elbert County and it's part of the Front Range metro area (I live on the Western Slope and am not familiar with the F.R.) and of course it's not the first case, but likely the first *identified case* and the person was in contact with people who did travel or hobnob with those who did. A man in his 20s? How likely is it that his contacts were few and identifiable? Of course they have to try to contact trace but with community spread, it's pretty much a done deal.

[mtngigi]

I'm hoping it's "fake news" ....

[brightdoglover]

Originally Posted by mtngigi

I'm hoping it's "fake news" ....

Don't believe it's so. It was inevitable, I'd say.

Just news.

[Mike from back east]

More on the case in Elbert County in today's WaPo.

Excerpt: "Colorado officials are investigating a second suspected infection with the mutation-laden variant of the coronavirus that has been spreading rapidly in the United Kingdom and is believed to be more transmissible. Both cases involve National Guard personnel recently deployed to the Good Samaritan assisted-living facility in Simla, in Colorado’s Elbert County, following an outbreak of coronavirus infections there, said state health officials in a briefing Wednesday. The call was led by Gov. Jared Polis (D), who announced the initial case Tuesday — the first appearance of the variant in the United States. The sample from the second individual is “highly suspicious but has not yet been confirmed,” said Emily Travanty, supervisor of public health microbiology and serology for the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment. “This particular sample was a little bit less of a strong signal so it’s taking a little bit more work.” She said it could take a week to confirm the case."