How hard is it these days to get into a decent college?

[kmrlongisland]

Originally Posted by shamrock847

You make some interesting points. I agree that the common app had led to more students applying to more top schools and this is a big part of the reason why admissions % are lower. I disagree that it is no harder to get in to the top schools today - the fact that it is so much easier to apply means there will be an increase in both qualifed and unqualiifed applicants to these schools. And the increasing population of college age students means more of them are "top 5%" and 1400+ SAT or whatever is needed to be competitive at the top schools.



I agree the common app has to be considered when looking at the admission percentages:
1. Marginally qualified students may throw out a bunch of applications to "reach" or "snowballs chance" schools since the marginal cost of doing so is relatively low.
2. Qualified students may apply to a larger number of schools to increase their chances of getting in one of their top choices or to see where they get a better financial aid offer. So instead of applying to one or two ivies, they apply to all of them plus a bunch of other top schools like Stanford, Chicago etc. If this is going on you'd expect to see the "yield" or percentage of applicants who accept drop somewhat.



Agree, but doesn't this mean it is harder to get in to these schools since there are more applicants?




I think there is some truth in this. The difference, I think, is parents and students are savvier consumers than they were even a decade ago before so much information was easily available. What this means is that top students who in the past might have set their sights on a flagship state universitity are now applying to many more top national schools. As an example, many of the top students in my high school class only applied to, and attended, the flagship public school in our state, even though they could have gotten in to some of the ivies or other prestigeous "national" schools. Today, many more of those students are applying to the top universities and this inherently makes admissions more competitive.



The demographic trends definitely make it harder to get in to a top school - more students chasing the same number of beds. Doesn't the fact that these schools are "more competitive and selective" mean admissions are harder than in the past?

I performed a similar calculation regarding Harvard's much publicized 3.8% acceptance rate and concluded it is really closer to 6.5% for the top students.

I compared today's student population to the Harvard class of 1972. On the web I found a Crimson article about Harvard's acceptance statistics and College Board SAT data for 1968. Harvard's acceptance rate was ~14% (7000 applied), their admittance yield was near 100% and the average SAT accepted was in the top ~2% (~1400) according to the College Board data sheet (900,000 sat for the SAT).

The increase in college age students (in 2012 1,500,000 sat for the SAT), international students and the common app all put downward pressure on the acceptance rate. But the common app also provides an over-estimate because it is easy to start an application to a college, select the college and enter your credit card, but not so easy to finish the application (provide the supplemental essays).

In 1968 39% of students in the top 2% applied (7000/19000). Applying this percentage to 2012 would result in 12000 Harvard applicants and a 9% acceptance rate. But the common app makes it easier for otherwise top students who would not apply (e.g. in 1968 12000 top students did not apply) but it's doubtful all 23000 extra apps come from the top 2%, suggesting a good number of applicants are applying who don't have a chance of admittance.
Using statistics abut the number of incomplete Common Applications I estimate the acceptance rate is closer to 6.5% than 3.8%.