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Boise State beating Fresno State, #18 Nevada, and Utah State will not move them at all in the computer polls. Like I said, they have to move 3 places to move ahead of TCU-- which is almost impossible, considering two of the teams in front of them are LSU and Stanford.
The voters can't do anything more for Boise-- only the computers, as the voters already have Boise ranked 3rd.
It is pretty much a sure thing that if Auburn or Oregon slips up, TCU will be in there.
If you look at people who follow the numbers - be it Jerry Palm or Brad Edwards or even fans who crunch the computer numbers (on both Killer Frogs and Broncocountry), it's all but assured BSU will pass TCU in the computers, or at the very least, get close enough to them such that the Harris and Coach's votes will get Boise over TCU.
The problem for TCU is there is nothing left for them to do. They lose points next week simply by playing New Mexico.
They absolutely need Baylor and Utah to win out, and for Virginia Tech to lose. Outside of Boise losing a game, they also need Boise to play crummy in one or both of the next two games.
It'll be close, to be sure. But the bottom line is Boise has the stage in their hands and TCU does not.
If you look at people who follow the numbers - be it Jerry Palm or Brad Edwards or even fans who crunch the computer numbers (on both Killer Frogs and Broncocountry), it's all but assured BSU will pass TCU in the computers, or at the very least, get close enough to them such that the Harris and Coach's votes will get Boise over TCU.
The problem for TCU is there is nothing left for them to do. They lose points next week simply by playing New Mexico.
They absolutely need Baylor and Utah to win out, and for Virginia Tech to lose. Outside of Boise losing a game, they also need Boise to play crummy in one or both of the next two games.
It'll be close, to be sure. But the bottom line is Boise has the stage in their hands and TCU does not.
I've never seen that stated in the media or by "the people who follow the numbers," where are you getting this from?
ESPN does a good job of forecasting the bowls towards the end of the year... they have TCU in the National Title Slot (and they are taking into account the factors that you mentioned)
I've never seen that stated in the media or by "the people who follow the numbers," where are you getting this from?
ESPN does a good job of forecasting the bowls towards the end of the year... they have TCU in the National Title Slot (and they are taking into account the factors that you mentioned)
I've never seen that stated in the media or by "the people who follow the numbers," where are you getting this from?
ESPN does a good job of forecasting the bowls towards the end of the year... they have TCU in the National Title Slot (and they are taking into account the factors that you mentioned)
They both fail. Those two people are clueless. Neither one of their Rose Bowl games would be possible in conjunction with their other bowl projections.
"A provision has been inserted for the first time that either conference cannot fill their bid due to qualifying for the BCS National Championship Game. If that happens and a non-BCS conference school qualifies, the Rose Bowl is required to take that school.[23] Otherwise, the bid would be filled by Notre Dame or the Big East Conference champion[citation needed], as Notre Dame automatically qualifies by finishing in the top eight in the final BCS poll and the Big East champion automatically qualifies but does not have a tie-in to any BCS bowl."
If you look at people who follow the numbers - be it Jerry Palm or Brad Edwards or even fans who crunch the computer numbers (on both Killer Frogs and Broncocountry), it's all but assured BSU will pass TCU in the computers, or at the very least, get close enough to them such that the Harris and Coach's votes will get Boise over TCU.
The problem for TCU is there is nothing left for them to do. They lose points next week simply by playing New Mexico.
They absolutely need Baylor and Utah to win out, and for Virginia Tech to lose. Outside of Boise losing a game, they also need Boise to play crummy in one or both of the next two games.
It'll be close, to be sure. But the bottom line is Boise has the stage in their hands and TCU does not.
How in the world can TCU LOSE computer points if they win ?
How in the world can TCU LOSE computer points if they win ?
Well, they lose in margin and differential. For instance, if BSU had 30 points and TCU had 50 points, and Boise plays Utah State and TCU plays New Mexico, Boise might gain, say, 10 points for a win where TCU gains 3. So now Boise has 40 points and TCU 53... TCU has "lost points," so to speak.
Teams can also lose points based on how other teams they played (or teams that played teams they played) do.
*
Except in October, when both Boise State and Oregon mysteriously lost 10 points in the Massey computer rankings.
I've never seen that stated in the media or by "the people who follow the numbers," where are you getting this from?
ESPN does a good job of forecasting the bowls towards the end of the year... they have TCU in the National Title Slot (and they are taking into account the factors that you mentioned)
They both fail. Those two people are clueless. Neither one of their Rose Bowl games would be possible in conjunction with their other bowl projections.
"A provision has been inserted for the first time that either conference cannot fill their bid due to qualifying for the BCS National Championship Game. If that happens and a non-BCS conference school qualifies, the Rose Bowl is required to take that school.[23] Otherwise, the bid would be filled by Notre Dame or the Big East Conference champion[citation needed], as Notre Dame automatically qualifies by finishing in the top eight in the final BCS poll and the Big East champion automatically qualifies but does not have a tie-in to any BCS bowl."
ESPoN analysts blow monkey balls.
Not quite true (as I've seen it discussed ad nauseum).
Under this year's provision if the Rose Bowl loses the Big 10 or Pac 10 champion, the Rose Bowl has to take the non-AQ autobid. However, if the Pac 10 champ and the non-AQ autobid both go to the NC, then the Rose is able to select from the at large pool. The caveat to that, is, that the Rose is obligated to take a non AQ in the next 4 years, and some speculate that this year, with TCU or Boise State available, they might just go ahead and do it this year while both are ranked high enough.
So their projections aren't quite out of whack.
I would argue that no way does the Sugar Bowl not take LSU and Ohio State. Too much money there. That leaves the Orange Bowl and the Fiesta Bowl to take the Big East champ and TCU/Boise State. Orange Bowl won't take Boise, especially if Va Tech is representing the ACC... and likely wants nothing to do with Stanford because of travel. If TCU is available they'll snag them. If not... do they get a 2 loss Okie State? More than likely.
To sum: I think that its 75/25 that either Boise gets left out of the BCS if TCU goes to the Rose Bowl, and 60/40 that TCU gets left out if Boise goes to the Rose Bowl.
Not quite true (as I've seen it discussed ad nauseum).
However, if the Pac 10 champ and the non-AQ autobid both go to the NC, then the Rose is able to select from the at large pool. .
You are saying that if TCU goes to the BCS NCG then that would be the one and only NON-AQ auto-bid? I could see how that would be true, but it doesn't seem right.
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