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This is very true. If we look at the 2020 Census population of each of the 3 primary Census areas, and presume that their growth rates continue in a linear fashion (which I know that they won't), and that their metro areas remain static (which they likely all won't) they hit 3M in the following time frame:
Charlotte: 2024
Austin: 2030
Nashville: 2039
Raleigh-Durham also hits 3M in 2039 alongside Nashville using the same methodology.
It would be great to have two cities in the same state with at least 3 million.....
So, looking at all of the current primary Census Statistical Areas (CSAs + MSAs without CSAs) that are between 2 and 3 million today, looking their growth rates per year between 2010 and 2020, and extrapolating that same growth rate annually from their 2020 Census population, we can make an objective (if flawed) presumption on which ones may cross 3M by 2040.
St Louis: 2,924,514 in 2020. Shockingly, St. Louis does not reach 3,000,000 by 2040 when applying its anemic .11% annual growth rate.
Charlotte: 2,822,352 in 2020. It reaches 3,000,000 by 2024 based on an annual 1.6% growth rate
Salt Lake City: 2,701,129 in 2020. It reaches 3,000,000 by 2026 based on an annual 1.8% growth rate
Sacramento: 2,680,831 in 2020. It reaches 3,000,000 by 2031 based on an annual 1.1% growth rate
Pittsburgh: 2,657,149 in 2020. It is not growing and will not reach 3,000,000
San Antonio: 2,576,528 in 2020. It reaches 3,000,000 by 2029 based on an annual 1.8% growth rate
Columbus: 2,544,048 in 2020. It reaches 3,000,000 in 2037 based on an annual .98% growth rate
Kansas City: 2,528,644 in 2020. Like its sister, St. Louis, it will not reach 3,000,000. In fact, it would be nearly identical to St. Louis in population: just falling short of 3M
Indianapolis: 2,492,514 in 2020. It reaches 3,000,000 by 2040 based on an annual .95% growth rate
Cincinnati: 2,316,022 in 2020. It is not going to reach 3,000,000 with a projected 2040 population of 2,574,283 based on an annual .53% growth rate
Austin: 2,283,371 in 2020. It reaches 3,000,000 by 2030 based on an annual 2.9% growth rate. It's the only city that breaks 4M by 2040.
Nashville: 2,118,233 in 2020. It reaches 3,000,000 by 2039 based on an annual 1.9% growth rate
Raleigh: 2,106,463 in 2020. It reaches 3,000,000 by 2019 based on an annual 1.9% growth rate
Milwaukee: 2,053,232 in 2020. It will not reach 3,000,000 by 2040 based on its annual .13% growth rate
In summary, these are the cities and years that have the best shot at 3,000,000 by 2040
2024: Charlotte
2026: Salt Lake City
2029: San Antonio
2030: Austin
2031: Sacramento
2037: Columbus
2039: Nashville & Raleigh
2040: Indianapolis
Will likely not reach 3,000,000 by 2040
St. Louis (2,989,929)
Kansas City (2,947,901)
Cincinnati (2,574,283)
Pittsburgh (2,173,301) it actually shrinks based on this methodology
Milwaukee (2,107,280)
Since you are going by CSA, wouldn't Las Vegas reach 3M before Indie, Nashville and Raleigh at current growth rates?
Ah, I knew that I'd miss at least one metro! Thanks for the catch.
Las Vegas: 2,317,052 in 2020. It reaches 3,000,000 in 2038 based on an annual 1.5% growth rate.
That does in fact slide it in front of the 3 that you mentioned.
....
2038: Las Vegas
2039: Nashville & Raleigh
2040: Indianapolis
Also, Clarksville's metro may be included in the future CSA totals which would currently give Nashville an additional 300,000-400,000 (I know it is hypothetical, but possible given growth rates and those moving to Clarksville and commuting to work in Nashville). Murfreesboro is already included in Nashville's MSA and is also one of the fastest growing cities in the nation.
Also, Clarksville's metro may be included in the future CSA totals which would currently give Nashville an additional 300,000-400,000 (I know it is hypothetical, but possible given growth rates and those moving to Clarksville and commuting to work in Nashville). Murfreesboro is already included in Nashville's MSA and is also one of the fastest growing cities in the nation.
It may be that Nashville takes more land and people into its CSA, but it's also possible that other CSAs/MSAs may do the same. There's no magic wand to know what will happen to CSAs through 2040, so I just used the imperfect methodology to go with where these CSAs (and MSAs) are today, and apply their latest annual average growth rates from the previous decading ending 2020. I do think it's safe to assume that the list of cities that have the best shot of reaching 3M are among this group & in this general order:
Charlotte
Salt Lake City
San Antonio
Austin
Sacramento
Columbus
Las Vegas
Nashville & Raleigh
Indianapolis
It's easy to imagine a reshuffling of this list if designations of CSAs/MSAs change, but it's still an unknown. It's also safe to assume that the pecking order among the metros above, and the ones that likely won't reach 3M by 2040, will change with Austin (+11), Nashville (+5), Raleigh (+5), & Las Vegas (+4) particularly ascending and St. Louis (-10), Pittsburgh (-9), and Kansas City (-4) particularly falling behind.
One more note about physical size of these MSAs and CSAs, Austin's is the smallest and they are growing the fastest. That's some real growth!
Columbus will absolutely reach 3 million in the not so distant future, considering that Intel is building a massive silicon manufacturing center there. Ever since Intel announced they are investing $20 billion into this project a few weeks ago, like half a dozen tech companies have been named in their intent to invest in the area as well.
Honestly by 2030 it wouldn't surprise me if SA/Austin was a CSA. It's already almost fully developed between the two and there's development plans to fill that last gap between New Braunfels and San Marcos. I think they'll both crack 3 mil on their own before 2030 though.
Honestly by 2030 it wouldn't surprise me if SA/Austin was a CSA. It's already almost fully developed between the two and there's development plans to fill that last gap between New Braunfels and San Marcos. I think they'll both crack 3 mil on their own before 2030 though.
If you’re going to be jumping 50 miles, Durham to Greensboro are pretty close.
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