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For Nashville, I guess it depends how soon Montgomery gets added to the Nashville Metro. I doubt it's anytime soon. However, the growth rates can fluctuate. Nashville should be pretty close by 2030-2040, that's if the rates remain the same. If including Montgomery county, maybe sooner.
For Nashville, I guess it depends how soon Montgomery gets added to the Nashville Metro. I doubt it's anytime soon. However, the growth rates can fluctuate. Nashville should be pretty close by 2030-2040, that's if the rates remain the same. If including Montgomery county, maybe sooner.
I thought the same thing. The momentum has to continue, however.
York is almost an hour away, that's more like Loveland or Ft. Collins, which realistically shouldn't be and aren't in Denvers metro.
Was refering to the county more so than York itself. A substantial amount residents in York county commute into Baltimore rather than York because MD and PA have reciprocity, so you only have to file a tax return with the state you live in.
Was refering to the county more so than York itself. A substantial amount residents in York county commute into Baltimore rather than York because MD and PA have reciprocity, so you only have to file a tax return with the state you live in.
I83 is bumper to bumper on weekdays, and they have commuter buses that takes people from York to Hunt Valley.
Was refering to the county more so than York itself. A substantial amount residents in York county commute into Baltimore rather than York because MD and PA have reciprocity, so you only have to file a tax return with the state you live in.
Ahhh ok. In that case it's pretty similar to Weld County.
Considering the difference between Orlando's CSA of 4.2M and its MSA of 2.7M as of 2020, for all intents and purposes it has already crossed that threshold.
Charlotte is alot closer than Nashville and Austin...no slight on them....
This is very true. If we look at the 2020 Census population of each of the 3 primary Census areas, and presume that their growth rates continue in a linear fashion (which I know that they won't), and that their metro areas remain static (which they likely all won't) they hit 3M in the following time frame:
Charlotte: 2024
Austin: 2030
Nashville: 2039
Raleigh-Durham also hits 3M in 2039 alongside Nashville using the same methodology.
So, looking at all of the current primary Census Statistical Areas (CSAs + MSAs without CSAs) that are between 2 and 3 million today, looking their growth rates per year between 2010 and 2020, and extrapolating that same growth rate annually from their 2020 Census population, we can make an objective (if flawed) presumption on which ones may cross 3M by 2040.
St Louis: 2,924,514 in 2020. Shockingly, St. Louis does not reach 3,000,000 by 2040 when applying its anemic .11% annual growth rate.
Charlotte: 2,822,352 in 2020. It reaches 3,000,000 by 2024 based on an annual 1.6% growth rate
Salt Lake City: 2,701,129 in 2020. It reaches 3,000,000 by 2026 based on an annual 1.8% growth rate
Sacramento: 2,680,831 in 2020. It reaches 3,000,000 by 2031 based on an annual 1.1% growth rate
Pittsburgh: 2,657,149 in 2020. It is not growing and will not reach 3,000,000
San Antonio: 2,576,528 in 2020. It reaches 3,000,000 by 2029 based on an annual 1.8% growth rate
Columbus: 2,544,048 in 2020. It reaches 3,000,000 in 2037 based on an annual .98% growth rate
Kansas City: 2,528,644 in 2020. Like its sister, St. Louis, it will not reach 3,000,000. In fact, it would be nearly identical to St. Louis in population: just falling short of 3M
Indianapolis: 2,492,514 in 2020. It reaches 3,000,000 by 2040 based on an annual .95% growth rate
Cincinnati: 2,316,022 in 2020. It is not going to reach 3,000,000 with a projected 2040 population of 2,574,283 based on an annual .53% growth rate
Austin: 2,283,371 in 2020. It reaches 3,000,000 by 2030 based on an annual 2.9% growth rate. It's the only city that breaks 4M by 2040.
Nashville: 2,118,233 in 2020. It reaches 3,000,000 by 2039 based on an annual 1.9% growth rate
Raleigh: 2,106,463 in 2020. It reaches 3,000,000 by 2019 based on an annual 1.9% growth rate
Milwaukee: 2,053,232 in 2020. It will not reach 3,000,000 by 2040 based on its annual .13% growth rate
In summary, these are the cities and years that have the best shot at 3,000,000 by 2040
2024: Charlotte
2026: Salt Lake City
2029: San Antonio
2030: Austin
2031: Sacramento
2037: Columbus
2039: Nashville & Raleigh
2040: Indianapolis
Will likely not reach 3,000,000 by 2040
St. Louis (2,989,929)
Kansas City (2,947,901)
Cincinnati (2,574,283)
Pittsburgh (2,173,301) it actually shrinks based on this methodology
Milwaukee (2,107,280)
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