2020 Election: Is illinois really a Blue state?

[Hiruko]

Originally Posted by aga412

Kane County has gone to the Dems county-wide too. The Bush Republicans of the Tri-Cities have all turned into limousine liberals. If they had picked anyone except Oberweis, I would think they could have crushed the fake nurse easily though, since she votes to the extreme left of her constituency. Perhaps next time!

Bush was last on the ballot 16 years ago—almost a generation. Very few 'Bush Republicans' have become Democrats or even independents. Almost all of them are still voting Republican in large numbers. The issue for Republicans is that they have been joined by newcomers. There is a new mix of people in the area, and they are further to the left.

Concerns for voters, especially younger voters, are also different in 2020. The 'National Security Generation' never materialized because the Bush-assembled security apparatus has been tremendously effective at thwarting any large scale terrorist threats. In the 2000s, Americans weren't sure if we were going to see attacks on our soil on a regular basis—many thought it just a matter of time.

I hate to say this, but I think that the racial and social climate in this country has made a lot of white voters feel like they have to prove themselves to 'not be racist'—and voting for Lauren Underwood gives them that ability—even though she doesn't represent any semblance of traditional outer-ring suburban values in any regard.

[aga412]

Originally Posted by Hiruko

I hate to say this, but I think that the racial and social climate in this country has made a lot of white voters feel like they have to prove themselves to 'not be racist'—and voting for Lauren Underwood gives them that ability—even though she doesn't represent any semblance of traditional outer-ring suburban values in any regard.

Tri-Cities has a limousine liberal streak in that regard of the whole "we're not racist" thing - source: from there.

I will also concede that there are many voters from "da city" that increasingly make the 14th area rather purple.

[jfre81]

It's a more nuanced thing than the title asks of it.

Illinois outside of Chicagoland might as well be Indiana, on a political level.

As far as presidential/Electoral College politics go, it is, but on a House of Representatives level it's not quite so, and it's not always so in our own statehouse in Springfield. Chicagoland districts favor Democrats, but not so much downstate.

[DamenVChicago]

Originally Posted by jfre81

It's a more nuanced thing than the title asks of it.

Illinois outside of Chicagoland might as well be Indiana, on a political level.

As far as presidential/Electoral College politics go, it is, but on a House of Representatives level it's not quite so, and it's not always so in our own statehouse in Springfield. Chicagoland districts favor Democrats, but not so much downstate.

It is true that Illinois would be like Indiana politically without Chicago, but it's also true that NY would be a much more conservative state without NYC (heck it would probably be like a conservative version of PA or WV even). And Cali without SF and LA would likely be Republican.

Outside of a couple exceptions like very small northerstern states that have more urban/developed land than rural farmland, every state would be red if you removed the major cities. Most blue states are blue due to their respective largest cities.

[aga412]

Originally Posted by DamenVChicago

It is true that Illinois would be like Indiana politically without Chicago, but it's also true that NY would be a much more conservative state without NYC (heck it would probably be like a conservative version of PA or WV even). And Cali without SF and LA would likely be Republican.

Outside of a couple exceptions like very small northerstern states that have more urban/developed land than rural farmland, every state would be red if you removed the major cities. Most blue states are blue due to their respective largest cities.

Except maybe Vermont or the majority of New England?

[Hiruko]

Originally Posted by aga412

Except maybe Vermont or the majority of New England?

Just a clarification, not saying that it isn't more to the left, but...A lot of New England is just rural in appearance but is actually firmly within a metropolitan area. All of Vermont is not rural, and the parts that are rural (outside of the towns) are often more conservative than the Burlington or Hanover, NH areas, for example.