Will suburban sprawl reverse?

[chet everett]

I really hope that the $4/hr is the "effective rate" such as might result from $200/wk, $800/mo, $9600/yr -- in any case that is probably less than half what childcare in the general suburban marketplace would cost. That sort of income probably helps out the provider quite a bit more than it would closer in too.

Peru has to be 70+ miles of expressway driving each way, even in a compact car that is a lot of extra fuel plus accelerated wear. I suppose if they have a good deal on their house that might offset a lot of the financial drain. As gas continues to rise though things will get worse...

[Chicago60614]

Originally Posted by IbeDavid

I believe one of the biggest reasons for the mass exodus of people living in chicago...

Haha, this isn't 1975! I've been here 7 years, and keep seeing more and more people moving in each year. I certainly don't see any "mass exodus".

[aragx6]

Originally Posted by chet everett

I really hope that the $4/hr is the "effective rate" such as might result from $200/wk, $800/mo, $9600/yr -- in any case that is probably less than half what childcare in the general suburban marketplace would cost. That sort of income probably helps out the provider quite a bit more than it would closer in too.

Peru has to be 70+ miles of expressway driving each way, even in a compact car that is a lot of extra fuel plus accelerated wear. I suppose if they have a good deal on their house that might offset a lot of the financial drain. As gas continues to rise though things will get worse...

He's only had the job 6 months or so and I think they eventually plan on moving closer, but the wife has a job down there too so it's tricky. Regardless of wear and tear and what not I'd simply go mad if I were alone in a car that long every day (then again I don't have 2 children under 3 as he does, perhaps then I might find the silence rather endearing)

[InformedConsent]

Originally Posted by BRU67

What are the test scores for Berwyn high school. middle school and elementary.

Some nearby District comparisons (elementary and middle schools) for the 2006-07 ISAT (% meeting or exceeding state standards):

Riverside Dist. 96 – 91.7
LaGrange Dist. 102 – 88.7
Oak Park Dist. 97 – 86.8
Brookfield/LaGrange Park Dist. 95 – 85.4
North Riverside Dist. 94 – 80.0
Lyons Dist. 103 – 78.7
Berwyn Dist. 100 (south) – 78.0
Forest Park Dist. 91 – 73.1
Berwyn Dist. 98 (north) -- 69.4
Maywood/Melrose Park/Broadview Dist. 89 – 60.8
Cicero Dist. 99 – 60.2

Be careful when using K-8 ISAT 'meets and exceeds' percentages to evaluate the quality of school districts, the percentages are misleading.

Illinois K-8 schools generally don't assess students with nationally normed tests (National Assessment of Educational Progress - aka NAEP, etc.) so that meaningful information on educational quality can be gathered. In Illinois, K-8 schools test students on the ISAT (Illinois Standards Achievement Test) with cut scores for 'Meets Standards' that are so low it's ridiculous ...practically criminal.

Illinois and its K-8 schools are not alone in presenting a much rosier picture to parents and the public about the effectiveness of K-8 education than is actually the case. Many states set the bar way too low. This linked chart compares 4th and 8th grade state standards proficiency level vs. the NAEP proficiency level:
NAEP Researchcenter - NAEP and State Equivalent Percent Table
For each grade level, the first column lists the percentage of students scoring as proficient (meets or exceeds state standards) on the state test; the second column lists the percentage of students scoring as proficient or above on the NAEP (National test). Illinois, for example, reports that in reading 72% of 8th graders are proficient - but on NAEP testing, only 31% are proficient.

Chris Jenner, a D26 School Board member, explains how the ISAT tests and cut scores are manipulated here...
http://www.chrisjenner.org/ISATComparison2007.pdf

This article discusses the dumbed down state standards problem:
Lake Wobegon, U.S.A. -- where all the children are above average
(Pay particular attention to the college prof's comment at the bottom of the above linked article. ) The article was updated to include Bush's proposal to require schools to include NAEP results on their NCLB report cards so that parents can see if their states have been manipulating their standards tests and passing scores to deliberately mislead the public into thinking that their children are getting a better education in the public schools than they actually are.

Given the fact that K-8 ISAT testing is so dumbed down, all families have to go on are the results on the nationally normed high school tests that colleges and universities use for admissions and course placement decisions - the ACT and/or SAT, and AP and/or HL IB Exams.

This is useful even for families whose children may not be college-bound as more and more employers are finding that with the technological advances they've experienced in their industries, workplace readiness equates more than ever to the same level of competency expected for college readiness.

It's somewhat risky to assume that a high-scoring public high school will maintain its excellence, though. Score trends over a multi-year time span might be useful in that regard. Additionally, it would be fairly reasonable to assume that a high-scoring high school would receive students from high quality K-8 schools.

[Grenoble_slopes]

Originally Posted by BRU67

I definitely believe it will. I think over time (and not over too much time either) more and more affluent people are going to see the benefits of proximity to the major city center, faster commute times, walkability and quality housing stock that Chicago neighborhoods and inner-ring suburbs offer. Kind of a natural offshoot of the "back to the city" movement if you will. It's already starting.

Faster commute times? Suburban commute times are significantly lower, on average.

[deechee]

I think one of the main problems with this is the emphasis of test scores. I cannot stand them. Kids resent them, they are just that: standardized. How many times does man have to slap himself in the face with the reality that these "tests of knowledge" unfairly hurt an entire school's reputation. Tests scare children, teachers and parents alike. I hate them.

ANYWHO: I do not think suburban sprawl will ever reverse. There will always be people who do not like urban, "contemporary" life and would rather struggle in the rural areas or suburban areas than ever try to live in a city. I know I would. Many of the people who live in the suburbs are there for that reason - to get away from people, not get closer.

It makes no economic sense for that to happen now, seeing as many suburbs, especially in the IN and IL states are becoming hubs of their own....I could not see people leaving it. Too many jobs and homes to be lost.