Will suburban sprawl reverse? (Chicago, Cicero: homes, neighborhoods, school districts)

[Humboldt1]

Bru,

What are the test scores for Berwyn high school. middle school and elementary. I see many inner suburbs going downhill as the s#@t from areas of the west and south sides of Chicago are forced out to the burbs. Less affluent suburbs will be hit the hardest.

Per capita income how does Berwyn compare with Oak Park, River Forest, and Elmhurst and Evanston? It has to be higher than Cicero.

I don't see public schools improving anytime soon for working class and poor people, particularly inner burbs and the city. Oak Park, River Forest, Elmhurst, Evanston, Park Ridge are all in great shape as they are affluent, close to the city and will stay nice as they have simply priced themselves out of the poor market. There are parts of Oak Park that still have challenges as you approach Austin but hopefully that area will gentrify to the point where it cannot be infected by the poverty of austin to the east.

Affluent suburbs with rail access will do well.

Was the developer mentioned previously in Itasca? I always wondered why they built that 5 story building, though it is a very nice building in a nice area.

And seriously, who in their right mind would ride the train 60-90 mins to get to the loop for work? That is just crazy though I do know some people who take the train from Crystal Lake everyday to Oglevie, craziness I tell ya.

Rich people will not be as affected by rising fuel costs as there will always be a market for hummers though perhaps smaller as gas approaches 5 dollars. I don't see it going much north of that (you can quote me 1-2 years from now if it does).

[chet everett]

Here is an interesting exercise:

Look at the nodding mouth breathers in the Hoosier State that are cheering when a certain NY Senator says she'll "cut the taxes at the pump and tax the profits of the rich oil companies" and contrast them to Hoosiers maybe a few miles away that understand when a certain Illinois Senator calls such a 'plan' utter nonsense and points out that oil costs cannot change if taxes are still collected as they'll just re-****** prices.

This is not all the different than the mindset of people in one town that continually will "get out the vote" for corrupt incompetents that employ tactics of racial ridiculousness and throw around contract money that does nothing but enrich cronies and themselves as schools and municipal serves sink deeper into the cess pool. Contrast this to people a mile or two away towns that have far more efficient governments that actually deliver on promises they make, deal responsibly with racial realities, and actively cooperate with law enforcement when corruption is uncovered.

A lot has to change for towns that have been decline for a long time to turn things around.

[BRU67]

What are the test scores for Berwyn high school. middle school and elementary.

Some nearby District comparisons (elementary and middle schools) for the 2006-07 ISAT (% meeting or exceeding state standards):

Riverside Dist. 96 – 91.7
LaGrange Dist. 102 – 88.7
Oak Park Dist. 97 – 86.8
Brookfield/LaGrange Park Dist. 95 – 85.4
North Riverside Dist. 94 – 80.0
Lyons Dist. 103 – 78.7
Berwyn Dist. 100 (south) – 78.0
Forest Park Dist. 91 – 73.1
Berwyn Dist. 98 (north) -- 69.4
Maywood/Melrose Park/Broadview Dist. 89 – 60.8
Cicero Dist. 99 – 60.2

The highest performing elementary school was Emerson (100) with 84.7% of students meeting or exceeding standards. This outscored 5 of the 8 elementary schools in Oak Park’s Dist. 97. Irving (100) also scored well with 82.9. That was higher than 2 of Oak Park’s schools. The best in District 98 was Jefferson with a 71.9.

District 100’s Heritage and Freedom middle schools scored 81 and 76.3 respectively. District 98’s Lincoln middle school scored 69.1. Oak Park’s Julian and Brooks middle schools scored 87.3 and 86.9 respectively. Brookfield’s S.E. Gross middle school had an 83.9.

There’s a noticeable difference in scores between Districts 98 and 100. The north side has a larger concentration of renters and low income and LEP students, which is one obvious explanation for the difference. District 98 also only spends $6,200 per pupil, versus the $7,400 District 100 spends. Both are below the state average in per-pupil spending, however.

Morton West high school had a 17.5 overall ACT score for 2006-07. Compare to Oak Park/River Forest 23.8, Lyons Township 23.8, Riverside-Brookfield 22.5, Proviso West 16.5, Morton East (Cicero) 16.4, and Proviso East 15.8. Room for improvement, that’s for sure. Problem here is the “mobility rate.” Many students who start elementary school in Berwyn, particularly the higher scoring ones, do not ultimately enter West. They often go to private high schools, or move. A magnet school would be a fantastic idea for District 201.

Oak Park is a great community no doubt about it but a case can be made that the extra $100k you’d spend on a house plus the $3k more in property taxes per year over Berwyn isn’t justified based solely upon the schools. A kid can easily get an education in District 100 that is competitive with District 97. And those cost differences over time would easily subsidize 4 years at a private high school.

I see many inner suburbs going downhill as the s#@t from areas of the west and south sides of Chicago are forced out to the burbs. Less affluent suburbs will be hit the hardest.

This is commonly said though we’re not seeing much Chicago displacement here at this point. And the question has to be asked why they're getting pushed out? Increased demand to live in the City is why. I think Berwyn is on the whole benefiting from the push to move back to the City, and can continue to do so with correct focus. As Drover pointed out, the CPS is a mess. Berwyn has a better prospect of fixing its educational issues sooner. We’re not immune from the cosmic vortex either but the elementary schools are doing a great job with what they have to work with. They’d do better with more funding.

Per capita income how does Berwyn compare with Oak Park, River Forest, and Elmhurst and Evanston? It has to be higher than Cicero.

You can look up the most recent census data (2000) yourself and see that it’s lower than these highly affluent communities. Many other communities can say the same. Things have changed since then, and there’s a decided gap between lower and higher income residents in Berwyn as I somewhat touched on above, so any overall income figures may be misleading. I have seen recent figures that show that about 30% of Berwyn’s households have an income over $75k per year.

I don't see public schools improving anytime soon for working class and poor people, particularly inner burbs and the city. Oak Park, River Forest, Elmhurst, Evanston, Park Ridge are all in great shape as they are affluent, close to the city and will stay nice as they have simply priced themselves out of the poor market. There are parts of Oak Park that still have challenges as you approach Austin but hopefully that area will gentrify to the point where it cannot be infected by the poverty of austin to the east.

That could be true, though I hope it isn’t. It won’t do anyone any good to simply write off low income students and hope they all migrate to poor communities where we don’t have to look at them. They represent a major chunk of our future workforce, like it or not. Don’t we want to try and educate them? Drover – note how I said “public school reform” after I mentioned funding in my post. I never said to just throw a ton of money at a system that is failing a disturbingly high percentage of our students and jeopardizing our future in the process. The entire thing needs to be reexamined.

There are things that can be done to improve student test scores among our nation’s most challenged students, though it sure isn’t easy. Unfortunately, low income students are usually severely disadvantaged and need more resources, but they tend to go to the schools with the fewest resources. There has been no serious effort, to date, to address this. We can hope there will be.

Affluent suburbs with rail access will do well.

Agreed.

[Humboldt1]

Chet,

I am from Indiana. Indiana has not gone democrat since Kennedy carried the state in 1960. If it weren't for the primary you wouldn't even see Obama and Clinton in Indiana campaigning. Typically, it is much more efficient for them to target swing states such as Ohio and Florida.

Once Indiana primary is over don't expect Clinton or Obama to spend much time in Indiana.

Sorry if this is off topic, but those candidates spending so much time in a state that is going to go Republican is silly. Had Clinton already dropped out Democrats would ignore Indiana as they always do, kinda like the Republicans usually do in states such as Illinois that will go Democrat no matter what. The electoral college has guaranteed this outcome.

I agree that a lot has to change for areas in decline to reverse those declines. In most cases, I don't see this happening. Maybe Berwyn will prove me wrong, though that area never got really that bad, certainly not as bad as Cicero or Austin.

[Humboldt1]

Bru,

Thanks for the info. I knew the 2000 numbers but wondered if they had any other updated info say from 2005.

I guess we will just agree to disagree on public high schools vs. private. In the city unless your kids go to a magnet school you have to send them to private school to increase their chances of success.

I come from a long line of teachers dating back well over 100 years and make education a major priority if I ever have children. I don't care too much about elementary school so long as they are decent. After middle school it matters more to me as I believe after middle school determines what kind of universities you can get into. I would send my kids to private school if I live in the city but would rather send them to public schools if I live in the suburbs (I am not Catholic, but would send my kids to Catholic school if my Catholic wife wanted to).

I would not feel comfortable sending my kids to public school in Berwyn but would in Oak Park.

The areas you cite 5 of 8 being better in Oak Park are probably the more affluent areas. As the poor are displaced from the eastern parts of Oak Park, expect those scores to increase as well. I feel bad for poor people, but not enough to ruin the education of my children. And like it or not, I would rather push the poor out of my neighborhood for someone else to deal with, though I fully expect my tax dollars to continue to subsidize their existence. I just won't have to see them everyday and have my kids around them. (Sorry folks, just being honest)

[cohdane]

Just came across an interesting news article addressing the whole downward pressure on exurbs topic:

Gas prices up, housing prices down - Boston Real Estate - Boston.com

The story covers a study conducted by "CEOs for Cities." Essentially says fuel prices are directly linked to home prices in distant suburbs.

[Ophidian14]

Originally Posted by Humboldt1

And seriously, who in their right mind would ride the train 60-90 mins to get to the loop for work? That is just crazy though I do know some people who take the train from Crystal Lake everyday to Oglevie, craziness I tell ya.

I ride from Cary to Clybourn, and then from Clybourn up to Davis St. in Evanston. So there.

[Humboldt1]

Ophidian,

Craziness I tell you. IMHO.

[BRU67]

I'd definitely need a few of those big Fosters to handle that ride

[aragx6]

A guy I work with drives an hour and a half (on a good day) to work from Peru, Il. I thought he might be crazy, but then he told me he pays his babysitter $4/hour for two kids, so maybe he's actually brilliant.