Chicago Suburbs Real Estate (apartment, lenders, house)

[streptococcus]

Originally Posted by Hiruko

Inventory is very low for our area. What is considered low here could be different from other metro areas. A quick search produces dozens of articles from Crains to the Tribune talking about Chicagoland's 'record low housing inventory.'

I just checked our hood, Lombard - Villa Park, a solid middle class area, inventory is low and some recent sales in desirable areas were above asking price... so that suggests some bidding wars. Something I've never seen in my decade or so here

[mwj119]

Originally Posted by jvr789

Refine your search to properties in Hinsdale that are actually available and not contingent. Then look at the map. You don't have your pick of properties at all in the best neighborhoods - you are pushed to the edges. And when you compare IL properties to other properties across the nation, you must consider the tax implications. Are you not aware of the fiscal mess that IL is in? The prices are what they are because the market has spoken.

I didn't refine any of my searches for any community. Apples to apples comparison, available and contingent included.

I am very well informed about the fiscal mess in IL, and the property tax rates in Cook, Lake, and DuPage. But income taxes in California, for example, dig into the pockets of it's residents in those communities far more than the delta in property taxes here. NY/Jersey has the same property taxes as Chicagoland.

None of that really matters, though. I picked a price point out of a hat, as it's irrelevant. Just used a number to show availability. It's the number of homes available vs. the population of the given area that speaks to inventory. So, again, compared to other large metros, Chicago is still objectively in the higher-to-much-higher inventory category. I mean, we're only seeing ~5% reduction in available homes YoY, it's not as drastic is it seems. I think we can agree that maybe we are seeing it go from surplus to an equilibrium? But the folks on here saying inventory is low seem moderately out of touch, or have PTSD from the past decade.

[RamenAddict]

Originally Posted by mwj119

Ok, well, in the large MSAs/towns that we have lived in:

Concord, MA: 18k people, 38 SFH, 2 below $800k
Reading, MA: 25k people, 30 SFH, 8 below $800k

Burbank, CA: 103k people, 114 SFH, 25 below $800k
Irvine, CA: 282k people, 644 SFH, 44 below $800k

Summit, NJ: 23k people, 57 SFH, 14 below $800k

Kirkland, WA: 90k people, 263 SFH, 56 below $880k

Note the populations vs. SFH for sale. It's not close between similarly desirable MSAs. Chicagoland has a ton of homes for sale, even if it's a historical low. That's all i'm saying. Perspective, guys.

You aren’t even doing apples to apples comparisons. You are picking places with very high home values and showing us that there aren’t a lot of homes below the median home value of the area. What does that really tell us? Places that have high home values usually do so because they have low inventory. I’m sure if you actually compared places with comparable median home values, you’d find less inventory.

[mwj119]

Originally Posted by RamenAddict

You aren’t even doing apples to apples comparisons. You are picking places with very high home values and showing us that there aren’t a lot of homes below the median home value of the area. What does that really tell us? Places that have high home values usually do so because they have low inventory. I’m sure if you actually compared places with comparable median home values, you’d find less inventory.

I compared these to places like Hinsdale and Wilmette.

I feel like everyone has decided they are just going to die on this hill.

Let's do this. Population/SFH for sale=Inventory indicatory. Lower the number, the more inventory there is.

What are the hottest towns in Illinois right now? https://www.realtor.com/research/rep...ttest-markets/

Filtered by IL, it looks like Carol Stream and Bolingbrook were the hottest markets in Chicagoland in Q1. That is, shortest days on market. Keep in mind, neither of these fall in the top 1000 hottest markets in the country.

Bolingbrook has a population of 75k, with 208 SFH listed for sale = 360

Carol Stream has a population of 39k, with 95 SFH listed for sale = 410

Now, let's do MA since it's where we just moved from (and ran into real inventory issues). https://www.realtor.com/research/rep...ttest-markets/ filtered by MA. ~60 towns come up with less time on market/less inventory than the two hottest Chicagoland towns.

Melrose MA, population of 28k, has 24 SFH listed for sale = 1,167

Haverhill MA, population 69k, has 46 SFH listed for sale = 1,500

So, quite literally, the shortage in other major metros is often 250-300%+ worse than it is in Chicago's hottest towns. It's one thing to be confident and bullish on the outlook as current homeowners, but it's another to be misinformed and to act like there is some massive housing shortage here. Everyone relax.

[MovingForward59]

Originally Posted by mwj119

I didn't refine any of my searches for any community. Apples to apples comparison, available and contingent included.

I am very well informed about the fiscal mess in IL, and the property tax rates in Cook, Lake, and DuPage. But income taxes in California, for example, dig into the pockets of it's residents in those communities far more than the delta in property taxes here. NY/Jersey has the same property taxes as Chicagoland.

None of that really matters, though. I picked a price point out of a hat, as it's irrelevant. Just used a number to show availability. It's the number of homes available vs. the population of the given area that speaks to inventory. So, again, compared to other large metros, Chicago is still objectively in the higher-to-much-higher inventory category. I mean, we're only seeing ~5% reduction in available homes YoY, it's not as drastic is it seems. I think we can agree that maybe we are seeing it go from surplus to an equilibrium? But the folks on here saying inventory is low seem moderately out of touch, or have PTSD from the past decade.

Do you ever think about the future? Do you really think taxes in Illinois are going to stay stable? Of course not. They are going up.
The compared to California false equivalency is comical to say the least. Did you know there are 48 other states to live in here in the USA?

[mwj119]

Originally Posted by MovingForward59

Do you ever think about the future? Do you really think taxes in Illinois are going to stay stable? Of course not. They are going up.
The compared to California false equivalency is comical to say the least. Did you know there are 48 other states to live in here in the USA?

I'm confused. What are you trying to say? The three largest markets - LA, NYC, and Chicago, have high taxes. The relative COL in Chicago is far lower. Are you directing your response towards me? What about the future has anything to do with the current debate between whether or not we should consider Chicagoland inventory truly low or not?

Regardless, the property tax issue plays precisely into my point, which is that there is still plenty of inventory to meet the demand. Demand is lower here, than most major metros. Inventory is, therefore, higher. So the market may be hotter relative to Illinois this decade, but is not hot by major market standards.

Can you explain what you were trying to say?

[Hiruko]

Originally Posted by mwj119

I'm confused. What are you trying to say? The three largest markets - LA, NYC, and Chicago, have high taxes. The relative COL in Chicago is far lower. Are you directing your response towards me? What about the future has anything to do with the current debate between whether or not we should consider Chicagoland inventory truly low or not?

Regardless, the property tax issue plays precisely into my point, which is that there is still plenty of inventory to meet the demand. Demand is lower here, than most major metros. Inventory is, therefore, higher. So the market may be hotter relative to Illinois this decade, but is not hot by major market standards.

Can you explain what you were trying to say?

California's property tax rates are well into the bottom half of states because of Prop 13.

[CatsDogsSun]

Originally Posted by mwj119

I didn't refine any of my searches for any community. Apples to apples comparison, available and contingent included.

I am very well informed about the fiscal mess in IL, and the property tax rates in Cook, Lake, and DuPage. But income taxes in California, for example, dig into the pockets of it's residents in those communities far more than the delta in property taxes here. NY/Jersey has the same property taxes as Chicagoland.

None of that really matters, though. I picked a price point out of a hat, as it's irrelevant. Just used a number to show availability. It's the number of homes available vs. the population of the given area that speaks to inventory. So, again, compared to other large metros, Chicago is still objectively in the higher-to-much-higher inventory category. I mean, we're only seeing ~5% reduction in available homes YoY, it's not as drastic is it seems. I think we can agree that maybe we are seeing it go from surplus to an equilibrium? But the folks on here saying inventory is low seem moderately out of touch, or have PTSD from the past decade.

I found this post very informative.

[MovingForward59]

Originally Posted by mwj119

I'm confused. What are you trying to say? The three largest markets - LA, NYC, and Chicago, have high taxes. The relative COL in Chicago is far lower. Are you directing your response towards me? What about the future has anything to do with the current debate between whether or not we should consider Chicagoland inventory truly low or not?

Regardless, the property tax issue plays precisely into my point, which is that there is still plenty of inventory to meet the demand. Demand is lower here, than most major metros. Inventory is, therefore, higher. So the market may be hotter relative to Illinois this decade, but is not hot by major market standards.

Can you explain what you were trying to say?

What I was trying to say was there are other options out there. Chicago, LA, NYC aren’t the only cities to live in America.

[mwj119]

Originally Posted by Hiruko

California's property tax rates are well into the bottom half of states because of Prop 13.

Absolutely, but their income tax is considerably higher, going back to my original response. 100% more in CA than IL. Point being, they get you one way or the other in these premier locations/markets.

We/I really got away from the original point, which was that IL inventory may be down compared to IL inventory, but that it's nowhere near doomsday like some in this thread would suggest. I think COVID, and some other driving factors in downtown Chicago are merely allowing the suburbs to find their stride. Back to a healthy demands vs. supply scenario we go. Shortage? Na.