Does anyone think we're entering another real estate bubble? (Naperville: how much, buying)

[destination-unknown]

Originally Posted by holl1ngsworth

I actually live in the Wheaton/Glen Ellyn/Downers/Naper quadrangle. And that's where my preference lies.

Don't want to get in the middle of this little back and forth but I have to agree with Town. There must be others that agree with this assessment as the real estate prices reflect the Hinsdale area's desirability over that of Wheaton's. Even with a considerable budget, my wife and I are having a heck of a time finding a place that we both like in Hinsdale/Clarendon Hills.

[holl1ngsworth]

Originally Posted by destination-unknown

Don't want to get in the middle of this little back and forth but I have to agree with Town. There must be others that agree with this assessment as the real estate prices reflect the Hinsdale area's desirability over that of Wheaton's. Even with a considerable budget, my wife and I are having a heck of a time finding a place that we both like in Hinsdale/Clarendon Hills.

Yes. I know. My point was dollar for dollar value. I think the quadrangle hansomely compensates homebuyers for the slight increase in commute times.

[moderngnome]

OP here... I guess I agree that we're not in a bubble - but I'm watching homes SELL QUICKLY at prices I never thought I'd see again in my neighborhood (Elmhurst, excellent school area).

It makes me want to sell and get out of Illinois while we can (before one of the new senate bills that takes away state funding from wealthy school districts happens).

We bought at the peak of the market (June 2006). We bought a small home in a nice neighborhood, that needed a good amount of work. Even after gutting the kitchen and main bathroom, doing all the landscaping, a fence, painting every room, replacing all the doors, all the hardware, all the fixtures, refinishing the wood floors, etc. etc. - I'd say we'd probably break after selling and paying an agent.

We did sell our previous home (in Huntley) at the peak, so we put 20% down here. That money, and all the money we've put into this house is just gone

But, we have to live somewhere, right? I sort of knew we were in a bubble when we bought - but I didn't anticipate it would collapse as low and as long as it did. Very frustrating for those of us that followed all the rules and did everything we were supposed to do.

[Lookout Kid]

Originally Posted by destination-unknown

Even with a considerable budget, my wife and I are having a heck of a time finding a place that we both like in Hinsdale/Clarendon Hills.

Yeah, well it's not a very big area. Hinsdale is only 17,000 people, and Clarendon Hills is 8,500.

This is what we quickly realized when we HAD to be in La Grange/Western Springs... There just aren't that many houses there for sale at any given moment. The stuff we liked had six offers on the first day. We had to cast a wider net across multiple suburbs.

[3Series]

Originally Posted by Lookout Kid

Yeah, well it's not a very big area. Hinsdale is only 17,000 people, and Clarendon Hills is 8,500.

This is what we quickly realized when we HAD to be in La Grange/Western Springs... There just aren't that many houses there for sale at any given moment. The stuff we liked had six offers on the first day. We had to cast a wider net across multiple suburbs.

That's just the market at work. More people would rather live in Hinsdale then Glen Ellyn. Which town is nicer is nebulous, it's just supply and demand.

Prime home and locations cost a lot more in Hinsdale then in Glen Ellyn, people are willing to pay more for the area.

As for a bubble, probably not. However, I don't see prices going up in the next decade or so. (outside of inflation). Rate increases will be in line with wage growth so any increases in wage growth will be countered by rate increases.

[holl1ngsworth]

Originally Posted by 3Series

That's just the market at work. More people would rather live in Hinsdale then Glen Ellyn. Which town is nicer is nebulous, it's just supply and demand.

Prime home and locations cost a lot more in Hinsdale then in Glen Ellyn, people are willing to pay more for the area.

As for a bubble, probably not. However, I don't see prices going up in the next decade or so. (outside of inflation). Rate increases will be in line with wage growth so any increases in wage growth will be countered by rate increases.

If you measure "demand" as the rate of change in home values in a town, Glen Ellyn has been in more "demand" than Hinsdale since the recovery started. In other words, the price gap between the towns has narrowed, and continues narrow. Home values in Hinsdale got hit harder than many during the housing crisis, and they've also had a softer recovery. On the other hand, Glen Ellyn has been one of the hottest markets in Chicagoland.

I'm speaking of the actual Village of Glen Ellyn here, excluding the unincorporated parts. Take a drive through. It's no surprise.

[My Kind Of Town]

Originally Posted by holl1ngsworth

If you measure "demand" as the rate of change in home values in a town, Glen Ellyn has been in more "demand" than Hinsdale since the recovery started. In other words, the price gap between the towns has narrowed, and continues narrow.

I'm speaking of the actual Village of Glen Ellyn here, excluding the unincorporated parts.

If I had to guess, an easy explanation for this is the availability of land and teardowns in Glen Ellyn vs that of Hinsdale. Hinsdale is literally running out of teardown lots in-town while Glen Ellyn still has quite a number of older/teardown type homes remaining. Of course, the numbers will be skewed when you replace an old 3 or 4 bedroom home with a brand new 5+ bedroom home. I think even Lookout Kid previously alluded to the crazy number of teardowns happening around him.

However, if you had the same home listed at the same price 4 blocks from downtown Hinsdale vs 4 blocks from downtown GE, which would sell faster? Wouldn't that be the apples to apples comparison of demand?

[holl1ngsworth]

Originally Posted by My Kind Of Town

If I had to guess, an easy explanation for this is the availability of land and teardowns in Glen Ellyn vs that of Hinsdale. Hinsdale is literally running out of teardown lots in-town while Glen Ellyn still has quite a number of older/teardown type homes remaining. Of course, the numbers will be skewed when you replace an old 3 or 4 bedroom home with a brand new 5+ bedroom home. I think even Lookout Kid previously alluded to the crazy number of teardowns happening around him.

However, if you had the same home listed at the same price 4 blocks from downtown Hinsdale vs 4 blocks from downtown GE, which would sell faster? Wouldn't that be the apples to apples comparison of demand?

Yes. And I wish there was an effective way to isolate data for just the Village of Glen Ellyn.

[Lookout Kid]

Originally Posted by holl1ngsworth

If you measure "demand" as the rate of change in home values in a town, Glen Ellyn has been in more "demand" than Hinsdale since the recovery started. In other words, the price gap between the towns has narrowed, and continues narrow. Home values in Hinsdale got hit harder than many during the housing crisis, and they've also had a softer recovery. On the other hand, Glen Ellyn has been one of the hottest markets in Chicagoland.

I'm speaking of the actual Village of Glen Ellyn here, excluding the unincorporated parts. Take a drive through. It's no surprise.

A lot more people can afford Glen Ellyn. Average detached house is $542,517 (2012 stats), while in Hinsdale the average detached house is $907,514. So it's a different pool of buyers for each town--though there is definitely overlap.

[3Series]

Originally Posted by My Kind Of Town

If I had to guess, an easy explanation for this is the availability of land and teardowns in Glen Ellyn vs that of Hinsdale. Hinsdale is literally running out of teardown lots in-town while Glen Ellyn still has quite a number of older/teardown type homes remaining. Of course, the numbers will be skewed when you replace an old 3 or 4 bedroom home with a brand new 5+ bedroom home. I think even Lookout Kid previously alluded to the crazy number of teardowns happening around him.

However, if you had the same home listed at the same price 4 blocks from downtown Hinsdale vs 4 blocks from downtown GE, which would sell faster? Wouldn't that be the apples to apples comparison of demand?

Demand is the price of homes. I need data to make a determination, if the price gap is narrowing, however the gap is still very wide. It's a lot easier to go from 250k to 500k then $1M to 1.5M.

Hinsdale has seen a large increase in teardown last year resulting in a lower median home price but if you look at new construction home pricing, it's much higher than Glen Ellyn. $600k for a tear down on a 75x125 lot resulting in a $1.9m house for sale. 50X125 houses are commanding $1.3-1.4M after being torn down for 400-500k.

According to Redfin, in Hinsdale 16 or 18 houses with 4 or more bedrooms sold for more than $1M dollars in the last 3 months. The top end was $4M.

In Glen Ellyn, nothing sold for over $1M and the most expensive home sold didn't even cross $900k.

Perhaps no one is selling in Glen Ellyn.....regardless, Glen Ellyn is a nice place to live and buy a home. It's just not a comparable town in terms of home pricing.