04-21-2015, 11:36 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Rae4732
Well, I think that home appreciation from an appraisal and what it will actually sell for are different. I follow hundreds of listings and almost all end up selling for less than they were purchased for. I'm referring to anything that previously sold after 2007 and listing above 500k. I could post 20 of them right now, especially anything that sold over 1 million. We know that renting right now is the right thing to do, while we watch the market tank and get a super deal in the next few years. Buying a home now would be completely insane.
Can you post these listings? I have seen many homes in Hinsdale sell for more in the past two years then when they were previously sold in 2008-2010. The gains haven't been drastic but they have appreciated.
What kind of market tanking are you anticipating? The current market is neither overvalued or undervalued within the desirable Chicagoland suburbs IMO. This area has not seen prices sky rocket like many parts of California or NYC or Seattle have in the past 4-5 years. It sounds to me like you are trying to convince yourself that there is a bubble to justify renting. Why go to open houses if you are waiting a couple years for the market to tank? What's the point? Or is this dramatic drop going to happen within the next 6 months?
Last edited by My Kind Of Town; 04-21-2015 at 11:54 AM ..
04-21-2015, 11:51 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
My Kind Of Town
Can you post these listings? I have seen many homes in Hinsdale sell for more in the past two years then when they were previously sold in 2008-2010. The gains haven't been drastic but they have appreciated.
I agree with this.
Look, there'll always be outliers, and if you're zoomed far enough out, you can gather together plenty of them. The point is in the averages. And bottom line is the average schmo who bought after '08 is at or in the money on their purchase. Those who bought '11-'13 are likely well into the money.
There are many sophisticated algorithms that track home prices at all levels and largely do a better job at aggregating data than a couple of Joe's like you or I surfing Redfin with our spare time. Case-Shiller and the Zillow Home Price Index are two good examples, and they largely reflect what MKOT and I have said.
04-21-2015, 11:57 AM
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Yes, I guess my point is I wouldn't be "waiting for a bubble to burst" because you will be waiting awhile. I too expect modest gains over the next few years based on everything I am reading. Maybe 1-3% annual increases. I'm fine with that. Still come ahead when compared to renting once you account for home equity and tax benefits.
04-21-2015, 12:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Rae4732
I meant to say- except in towns like Hinsdale and LaGrange. Again- homes over 500k, purchased during bubble of 2006 forward (unless they did a massive rehab on it). Anyhow, I guess we'll just disagree. I think we are all in for a big surprise over the next few years. Many people are pretty blind to it, and of course we still see homes selling for high prices, but I think will be changing soon. We'll see!
What you're trying to do is called "Market Timing", and it's almost impossible to do in real estate. At some point you just have to settle down somewhere and get on with your life. I remember people predicting a bubble back in 2001. They were right, of course, but it didn't happen for another six years after the fastest run-up in prices in the history of the country. And if they had bought in 2001, they would have still come out way ahead, even after the Great Recession.
We bought our first house in 2005. It appreciated a little, and then tanked. We figure we lost about $50,000 on that deal, yet the house we bought in Glen Ellyn a couple of years ago was probably discounted by more than that... So it all evens out in the end. And we don't plan on moving any time soon. We may even see the end of our 30 year mortgage.
The key is to view a house as a long-term residence, not a short-term investment. Some say you should plan to be there for five years, seven years, or some other arbitrary amount... I'm more comfortable with a ten year horizon in an uncertain appreciation situation.
04-21-2015, 12:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Rae4732
...and how unattractive some of the other homes are on the blocks where they build these 800k+ homes. I see so many tear downs that are built on blocks surrounded by houses that look abandoned. That seems really risky.
Easy answer to that: Don't buy the most expensive house on any block. Buy the least expensive house on the most expensive block. And don't pick an unattractive block. There are plenty of gorgeous blocks in Wheaton and Glen Ellyn.
I remember seeing this in Downers Grove over by the Fairview Metra station, which is not the most attractive part of town. There were several new houses going up on blocks that were barely nicer looking than trailer parks. That seemed like a really bad investment, unless you could be sure that ALL of the old houses were going to be torn down and replaced.
04-21-2015, 01:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Rae4732
I guess I am confused by your position. Do you think we are in a real estate bubble or are homes selling for less than what they were purchased for previously? If homes are selling for less than bubble prices from 2006-2007 then wouldn't that mean that current prices aren't in a bubble?
04-21-2015, 01:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Rae4732
I meant to say- except in towns like Hinsdale and LaGrange. Again- homes over 500k, purchased during bubble of 2006 forward (unless they did a massive rehab on it). Anyhow, I guess we'll just disagree. I think we are all in for a big surprise over the next few years. Many people are pretty blind to it, and of course we still see homes selling for high prices, but I think will be changing soon. We'll see!
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Wheaton/53.../home/17297076
This Wheaton home was built and purchased NEW at the PEAK. To be clear, 2007 was the PEAK. So you have a premium the buyer paid for new construction, PLUS they did the deal at the worst time in the history of the world, ever. Add to that the fact that the distressed owners were forced to sell just 6 short years after purchasing, and you have a recipe for disaster. It's not a surprise they took a bath. And what is this supposed to tell me about the future?
I'm also not clear how such an example should tell me
not to buy now. If you think homes are so grossly discounted compared to where they were previously trading AND we know values are trending upward, I'd call that a clear buy signal.
Here are some easy-to-look-at statistics on the issue of Hinsdale being a safer play:
Last edited by holl1ngsworth; 04-21-2015 at 01:12 PM ..
04-21-2015, 01:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
holl1ngsworth
This Wheaton home was built and purchased NEW at the PEAK. To be clear, 2007 was the PEAK. So you have a premium the buyer paid for new construction, PLUS they did the deal at the worst time in the history of the world, ever. Add to that the fact that the distressed owners were forced to sell just 6 short years after purchasing, and you have a recipe for disaster. It's not a surprise they took a bath. And what is this supposed to tell me about the future?not to buy now. If you think homes are so grossly discounted compared to where they were previously trading AND values are trending upward, I'd call that a clear buy signal.
I would agree that Hinsdale is a safer play for high end buyers ($800k +). I think it attracts more high end buyers than a town like Wheaton. It's not to say it is completely isolated from the general market trends (ie. downturns) though because the entire metro is tied in some way or another.
04-21-2015, 01:23 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
My Kind Of Town
I would agree that Hinsdale is a safer play for high end buyers ($800k +). I think it attracts more high end buyers than a town like Wheaton. It's not to say it is completely isolated from the general market trends (ie. downturns) though because the entire metro is tied in some way or another.
If you had bought a nicely equipped 4-bed in
Wheaton in mid-2007, the averages say you likely paid around $525k. The averages also say that home is now worth about $485k. That's a dollar loss of
$40k and a percentage loss of
7.5% .
If you had bought a nicely equipped 4-bed in
Hinsdale in mid-2007, the averages say you likely paid around $975k. The averages also say that home is now worth about $850k. That's a dollar loss of
$125k and a percentage loss of
13% .
I would argue a home in Wheaton asking $500k is roughly equivalent to a Hinsdale home asking $850k. That said, if we
do have another downturn, where do you want your money? These are facts, not feelings. Maybe I'm just a stickler. But there must be others out there who can see this for what it is...
Last edited by holl1ngsworth; 04-21-2015 at 01:37 PM ..
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People in Group quarters - Wards in general hospitals for patients who have no usual home elsewhere (%)
People in Group quarters - Wards in military hospitals for patients who have no usual home elsewhere (%)
People in Group quarters - Juvenile institutions (%)
People in Group quarters - Long-term care (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes for abused, dependent, and neglected children (%)
People in Group quarters - Residential treatment centers for emotionally disturbed children (%)
People in Group quarters - Training schools for juvenile delinquents (%)
People in Group quarters - Short-term care, detention or diagnostic centers for delinquent children (%)
People in Group quarters - Type of juvenile institution unknown (%)
People in Group quarters - Noninstitutionalized population (%)
People in Group quarters - College dormitories (includes college quarters off campus) (%)
People in Group quarters - Military quarters (%)
People in Group quarters - On base (%)
People in Group quarters - Barracks, unaccompanied personnel housing (UPH), (Enlisted/Officer), ;and similar group living quarters for military personnel (%)
People in Group quarters - Transient quarters for temporary residents (%)
People in Group quarters - Military ships (%)
People in Group quarters - Group homes (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes or halfway houses for drug/alcohol abuse (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes for the mentally ill (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes for the mentally retarded (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes for the physically handicapped (%)
People in Group quarters - Other group homes (%)
People in Group quarters - Religious group quarters (%)
People in Group quarters - Dormitories (%)
People in Group quarters - Agriculture workers' dormitories on farms (%)
People in Group quarters - Job Corps and vocational training facilities (%)
People in Group quarters - Other workers' dormitories (%)
People in Group quarters - Crews of maritime vessels (%)
People in Group quarters - Other nonhousehold living situations (%)
People in Group quarters - Other noninstitutional group quarters (%)
Residents speaking English at home (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Foreign born (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Foreign born (%)
Residents speaking other language at home (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Foreign born (%)
Class of Workers - Employee of private company (%)
Class of Workers - Self-employed in own incorporated business (%)
Class of Workers - Private not-for-profit wage and salary workers (%)
Class of Workers - Local government workers (%)
Class of Workers - State government workers (%)
Class of Workers - Federal government workers (%)
Class of Workers - Self-employed workers in own not incorporated business and Unpaid family workers (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Utility gas (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Bottled, tank, or LP gas (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Electricity (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Fuel oil, kerosene, etc. (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Coal or coke (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Wood (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Solar energy (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Other fuel (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - No fuel used (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Utility gas (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Bottled, tank, or LP gas (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Electricity (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Fuel oil, kerosene, etc. (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Coal or coke (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Wood (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Solar energy (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Other fuel (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - No fuel used (%)
Armed forces status - In Armed Forces (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian - Veteran (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian - Nonveteran (%)
Fatal accidents locations in years 2005-2021
Fatal accidents locations in 2005
Fatal accidents locations in 2006
Fatal accidents locations in 2007
Fatal accidents locations in 2008
Fatal accidents locations in 2009
Fatal accidents locations in 2010
Fatal accidents locations in 2011
Fatal accidents locations in 2012
Fatal accidents locations in 2013
Fatal accidents locations in 2014
Fatal accidents locations in 2015
Fatal accidents locations in 2016
Fatal accidents locations in 2017
Fatal accidents locations in 2018
Fatal accidents locations in 2019
Fatal accidents locations in 2020
Fatal accidents locations in 2021
Alcohol use - People drinking some alcohol every month (%)
Alcohol use - People not drinking at all (%)
Alcohol use - Average days/month drinking alcohol
Alcohol use - Average drinks/week
Alcohol use - Average days/year people drink much
Audiometry - Average condition of hearing (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear a whisper from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear normal voice from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - Ears ringing, roaring, buzzing (%)
Audiometry - Had a job exposure to loud noise (%)
Audiometry - Had off-work exposure to loud noise (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high blood pressure (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Checking blood pressure at home (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Frequently checking blood cholesterol (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high cholesterol level (%)
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at supermarket/grocery store
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at other stores
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on eating out
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on carryout/delivered foods
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at supermarket/grocery store (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at other stores (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on eating out (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on carryout/delivered foods (%)
Current Health Status - General health condition (%)
Current Health Status - Blood donors (%)
Current Health Status - Has blood ever tested for HIV virus (%)
Current Health Status - Left-handed people (%)
Dermatology - People using sunscreen (%)
Diabetes - Diabetics (%)
Diabetes - Had a blood test for high blood sugar (%)
Diabetes - People taking insulin (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Diet health (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Milk product consumption (# of products/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals not home prepared (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals from fast food or pizza place (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Ready-to-eat foods (#/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Frozen meals/pizza (#/month)
Drug Use - People that ever used marijuana or hashish (%)
Drug Use - Ever used hard drugs (%)
Drug Use - Ever used any form of cocaine (%)
Drug Use - Ever used heroin (%)
Drug Use - Ever used methamphetamine (%)
Health Insurance - People covered by health insurance (%)
Kidney Conditions-Urology - Avg. # of times urinating at night
Medical Conditions - People with asthma (%)
Medical Conditions - People with anemia (%)
Medical Conditions - People with psoriasis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with overweight (%)
Medical Conditions - Elderly people having difficulties in thinking or remembering (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever received blood transfusion (%)
Medical Conditions - People having trouble seeing even with glass/contacts (%)
Medical Conditions - People with arthritis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with gout (%)
Medical Conditions - People with congestive heart failure (%)
Medical Conditions - People with coronary heart disease (%)
Medical Conditions - People with angina pectoris (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had heart attack (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had stroke (%)
Medical Conditions - People with emphysema (%)
Medical Conditions - People with thyroid problem (%)
Medical Conditions - People with chronic bronchitis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with any liver condition (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had cancer or malignancy (%)
Mental Health - People who have little interest in doing things (%)
Mental Health - People feeling down, depressed, or hopeless (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble sleeping or sleeping too much (%)
Mental Health - People feeling tired or having little energy (%)
Mental Health - People with poor appetite or overeating (%)
Mental Health - People feeling bad about themself (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble concentrating on things (%)
Mental Health - People moving or speaking slowly or too fast (%)
Mental Health - People having thoughts they would be better off dead (%)
Oral Health - Average years since last visit a dentist
Oral Health - People embarrassed because of mouth (%)
Oral Health - People with gum disease (%)
Oral Health - General health of teeth and gums (%)
Oral Health - Average days a week using dental floss/device
Oral Health - Average days a week using mouthwash for dental problem
Oral Health - Average number of teeth
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to control insects (%)
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to kill weeds (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People walking or bicycling (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - Average hours a day doing sedentary activities
Physical Activity - Average hours a day watching TV or videos
Physical Activity - Average hours a day using computer
Physical Functioning - People having limitations keeping them from working (%)
Physical Functioning - People limited in amount of work they can do (%)
Physical Functioning - People that need special equipment to walk (%)
Physical Functioning - People experiencing confusion/memory problems (%)
Physical Functioning - People requiring special healthcare equipment (%)
Prescription Medications - Average number of prescription medicines taking
Preventive Aspirin Use - Adults 40+ taking low-dose aspirin (%)
Reproductive Health - Vaginal deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Cesarean deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Deliveries resulted in a live birth (%)
Reproductive Health - Pregnancies resulted in a delivery (%)
Reproductive Health - Women breastfeeding newborns (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had a hysterectomy (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had both ovaries removed (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever taken birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women taking birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used Depo-Provera or injectables (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used female hormones (%)
Sexual Behavior - People 18+ that ever had sex (vaginal, anal, or oral) (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had anal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had any sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had anal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had any kind of sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first had sex
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female vaginal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a woman (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of woman performed oral sex on in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male anal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a man (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male oral sex partners in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - People using protection when performing oral sex (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of times people have vaginal or anal sex a year
Sexual Behavior - People having sex without condom (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male vaginal sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Circumcised males 18+ (%)
Sleep Disorders - Average hours sleeping at night
Sleep Disorders - People that has trouble sleeping (%)
Smoking-Cigarette Use - People smoking cigarettes (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with smell (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with taste (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had wisdom teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had tonsils teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a loss of consciousness because of a head injury (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a broken nose or other serious injury to face or skull (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had two or more sinus infections (%)
Weight - Average height (inches)
Weight - Average weight (pounds)
Weight - Average BMI
Weight - People that are obese (%)
Weight - People that ever were obese (%)
Weight - People trying to lose weight (%)
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