Does anyone think we're entering another real estate bubble? (Chicago: rent, houses)

[aga412]

Hillside is a jaw dropping center of wealth?! When did that happen?!

[jonnynonos]

Originally Posted by aga412

Hillside is a jaw dropping center of wealth?! When did that happen?!

LOL...meant Hinsdale. I always do that.

[RogerMarrino]

Originally Posted by My Kind Of Town

That's where I disagree. I believe middle class families CAN afford a home in a neighborhood with a good school system. Suburbs like Downers Grove, Darien, Palos, LaGrange Highlands, parts of Naperville, and Lemont are all places that quickly come to mind that are generally affordable to middle class families within good school districts. Middle class families can also afford a home within great school districts if they are willing to make sacrifices on the home itself (size, updates, etc).

Those are all upper-middle-class to wealthy suburbs. Aurora, West Chicago, Bolingbrook, and portions of Villa Park and Lombard are the working-class suburbs of Dupage County. They're not as far gone as some of the more extreme examples in Cook County, but that's only because Chicago's creeping blight didn't start spilling over into Dupage until the '90s. Those neighborhoods are trending down. Their best days are behind them.

Originally Posted by agallan

I live in Brookfield and it is almost the definition of a majority middle-class town with very good schools (there are areas of upper middle class). Lombard, south DG, and Darien also have options with good school.

I think there's a better-than-average chance that the northern La Grange Park/Brookfield area will see significant decline over the coming years. The amount of low-income students doubled from 2000 - 2010 in that high school district. I give them all the credit in the world for holding on as long as they have, but I don't think it's possible to stop that level of negative momentum in an affordable area that borders on ground zero. They just don't have the resources (and property value) that Yuppieville has to fend off the incoming tidal wave of blight.

[moderngnome]

Originally Posted by JTW2013

I'll return to this because I think it's interesting.

Why shouldn't a middle class family expect a decent home with good schools? Hasn't access to decent housing and good schools for the children defined a middle class lifestyle in this country for generations? If a middle class income no longer affords those things then how it is middle class anymore (except in the sense that it's in the middle of the income range)? If a middle class Chicago family cannot afford a decent house and access to a good school district then they're taken a big step backward and are essentially equal to a working class family of the past.

This, exactly. I wish I could give you rep points (it won't let me).

[JTW2013]

Originally Posted by Mathguy

Sucks to be part of the Chicago school system now doesn't it.

Oh wait, they actually use magnet schools to pull out the kids from many schools and thus even further deplete the academic talent and focus and the other schools that are "left behind".

Well, at least you can change that by voting out the ...... oh wait, no you can't you live in an oligarchy.

Oh well, at least you can call for outside influence about racist policies....oh wait, no you can't....the party won't allow that and will reprimand any national figures that make them " look bad ".

Tough luck I guess.

But hey! At least you don't have to worry about those republicans running the city! Huzzzzzah! Victory!

Hey Mathguy, did you not notice that this is the Chicago SUBURBS forum? No one here is a part of the "Chicago school system" (whatever the heck that is).

Oh, and in case you didn't notice (since you just dropped in here to troll and don't even live in Chicago or the Chicago SUBURBS), Illinois just elected a Republican governor and already has a Republican senator. And most of the Chicago SUBURBS (remember this is the suburbs forum which you obviously missed with your trolling) are pretty solidly Republican.

So not sure exactly what this "oligarchy" is. At least not in the context of this conversation.

[agallan]

Ehh, I don't believe that. I don't think values will appreciate at the value of, say, its neighbor La Grange, but I think the majority of Brookfield (north of Ogden) is a good investment and will continue to maintain a middle class and above demographic with very good schools. It is bolstered by wealthy neighbors in La Grange and Riverside with which it shares schools (LT and RBHS at the high school level). And, importantly, it has 3 Metra stations which is a huge draw for professionals. Plus if you are saying there are decreasing middle class options, I think Brookfield fills a nice niche for those families.

Going forward, I think the best sign is that the smaller, "blighted" houses are getting bought by investors, being rehabbed down to the studs, and then sold at the top of Brookfield's price point. This means there is still a lot of affordable houses, but the truly junky houses which may have been structurally unsound or safety hazards are being replaced by very nice and spacious but not the huge "McMansion" houses you spoke of earlier. This is happening largely INSTEAD of those houses being bought by whatever types of people would cause an "incoming tidal wave of blight" that you mentioned.

And as for the % low income students... yes it increased from 2000-2010, but it was pretty darned low before so it doubled from a pretty low number to a... still relatively low number. And I think a lot of districts increased over the course of a decade with the economic decline that we went through. RBHS probably did increase a tad more because of its inner-ring location and affordable real estate, but you have to put it into context:

Per the Illinois School Report Card website...
RBHS has 18% low income students.
York, high school of the "yuppieville" you keep talking about has 17% low-income students
Downers Grove North has 21% low income students
Lyons Township has 14% low income students

So I'm not too worried about it.

Originally Posted by RogerMarrino

I think there's a better-than-average chance that the northern La Grange Park/Brookfield area will see significant decline over the coming years. The amount of low-income students doubled from 2000 - 2010 in that high school district. I give them all the credit in the world for holding on as long as they have, but I don't think it's possible to stop that level of negative momentum in an affordable area that borders on ground zero. They just don't have the resources (and property value) that Yuppieville has to fend off the incoming tidal wave of blight.

[RogerMarrino]

Believe me, I'm rooting for your area. It's almost a miracle that it has been able to withstand the forces that hurt the closer-in suburbs to the east and completely decimated the Proviso Township suburbs to the northwest (easily the biggest tragedy in Cook County history). Maintaining the integrity of the schools is extremely important because that's one of the only things separating it from a very similar town called Westchester.

[4122]

Originally Posted by My Kind Of Town

I think there is a difference between "good" and "excellent" school districts. No one is saying a middle income family shouldn't expect to afford a home in a good school district (ie. darien, lemont, palos, etc) but to expect to afford a home in an excellent school district (ie. hinsdale, wilmette, western springs, etc) while having a relatively updated 2000sf plus home is a different matter altogether.

Exactly! Middle class families don't expect to get into a top notch school district in Yuppieville. They should expect to be able to buy a 2000-2500 sq ft in a nice suburb with good schools, but not in Yuppieville areas. Some middle class families sacrifice size and home quality to buy in Yuppieville areas for highly ranked schools and such, but a decent sized home there is not expected.

[My Kind Of Town]

Originally Posted by JTW2013

That difference is part of the issue. A generation or so ago, there probably wasn't such a difference between "good" and "excellent" and a middle class district could afford to provide an equal education to an affluent district.

But again that's missing the point. 30 years ago, a middle class family could afford to buy into one of these "excellent" school districts. Now they can't. That is different and it should worry everyone.

Besides, these "excellent" school districts are public. They are not private and therefore only accessible by people who can afford the tuition. All of these schools are receiving some support from the state and therefore the taxes of everyone who can't afford to buy into Hinsdale.

How long have you lived in the Chicagoland area? Honest question, not trying to be a smarta$$. Because this idea that a middle class family in the prior generation could afford an updated, good-sized home in an affluent suburban district is just wrong. When my parents moved from Chicago to the western suburbs 35 years ago they were very much middle class. They quickly realized that towns like Hinsdale, Wheaton, and Glen Ellyn were out of their reach. Even today, they refer to those towns as the place where all the rich people live even though I live in Hinsdale and am far from rich haha. They ultimately settled in very middle class Westmont, which I happen to think is underrated in many respects. They were fighting the same issue you just described back in 1980!

Similarly, my uncle moved from Chicago to south Bensenville around the same time because he couldn't afford to buy in Elmhurst (where he worked) but wanted his kids to attend prestigious York High. I would have considered his income at the time to be in line with upper middle class.

These are real life examples from the prior generation experiencing the same struggles today's middle class is experiencing in this area when it comes to the price of real estate. This isn't a new phenomenon so I'm not sure why some are painting it in that light.

[My Kind Of Town]

Originally Posted by RogerMarrino

Those are all upper-middle-class to wealthy suburbs. Aurora, West Chicago, Bolingbrook, and portions of Villa Park and Lombard are the working-class suburbs of Dupage County. They're not as far gone as some of the more extreme examples in Cook County, but that's only because Chicago's creeping blight didn't start spilling over into Dupage until the '90s. Those neighborhoods are trending down. Their best days are behind them.



I think there's a better-than-average chance that the northern La Grange Park/Brookfield area will see significant decline over the coming years. The amount of low-income students doubled from 2000 - 2010 in that high school district. I give them all the credit in the world for holding on as long as they have, but I don't think it's possible to stop that level of negative momentum in an affordable area that borders on ground zero. They just don't have the resources (and property value) that Yuppieville has to fend off the incoming tidal wave of blight.

Many parts of Darien, Naperville, Downers Grove, etc. are full of middle class residents. Respectable homes in good school districts can be purchased for less than $350,000. The median income in DuPage County is approx. $80,000. Per a basic home affordability calculator, a family can generally afford a home in the low $300s with this level of income, which will vary slightly based upon debt obligations, down payment, etc.