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By the time Verizon gets the i phone, it won't be a big deal anymore as something way better will be out, the competition is catching to the i phone.
Verizon's gonna get it realistically by Q1 of next year - expect about 3m iPhone units to go through the VZw stores every quarter - Forecast for 2011 VZw - 12-13M iPhones at VZw- it's still a big deal with all the new applications for enterprise verticals - Health Care, Government, IT etc - this product only going to grow the next 12 months - just look at the stock it's gone up 538% over the past five years.....Android is awesome, and getting better in every new update and form factor upgrade I think there is room for both Apple OS and Android OS to do very well the next couple of years.
It think you're overestimating Apple's desire to sell through Verizon. Its selling devices without any problems despite being locked to AT&T (in the USA at least), and last i checked, Verizon still wants too much control over the devices for Apple to consider Verizon.
Besides, now that Verizon is pushing the Android OS phones, why chase Apple when it can get a fatter slice of profits from its own phones and controlled content?
Last Quarter Verizon did 423k new post paid additions, the lowest in 3 years, for the business to grow and steal subscribers from ATT they need the iPhone -
How many people who currently have AT&T, hate the service? - too many - I think you would have 20-25% of AT&T's 15m iPhones switch over to VZw pretty quickly - Verizon's CEO, Lowell has come out publicity within the past few weeks and told multiple analysts at Barclay's that VZw would love to have the iPhone on their network - A slightly different take is the Android 2.1 - 2.2 higher end products are geared for more tech savvy users than the iPhone - the iPhone with the price reduction now appeals to the masses, everyone from 14-54...Android at this time is male dominated and appeals to the 18-34 demographic and is a year from focusing on enterprise integration.
I understand what you're saying about AT&T being a roadblock to lots of Verizon customers, but Apple doesn't chase customers, it plays in the upper ends of its markets, and it is doing very well with that strategy right now. People switching from AT&T to Verizon doesn't do anything for Apple, it just dilutes its influence over AT&T. With 600k+ preorders for the iPhone in the USA and Canada alone, Apple isn't really in need of another channel in the USA to sell its iPhones.
Every Quarter since Apple launched the iPhone in 2007 their market share, devices sold and stock has continued to increase - CDMA VZw & Sprint combined have have 61% of the total wireless market share in the U.S. - Over 134m post paid subscribers between the two carriers -
The key sticking points when VZw has been in negations with Apple has been the Over the Air Programming - VZ wants 100% control of it and the ASP (Average Selling Price to the Carrier) that's currently $620 for the 32GB and $559 for the 16GB -price from Apple to AT&T - When the device is no longer exclusive to ATT - The ASP will drop 80 - 100 per phone. This partnership is too big for both parties to continue to not take full advantage of especially with Smartphones trending 40-50% of current upgrades and activations - Odds are VZw gets a Apple device it Q1- Q2 of next year 80%+...this will catapult Apple's stock and it may even be a slightly different version than the ATT iPhone 4.0....
I think the bigger question for VZw is will the new Apple device be CDMA EVDO or LTE.?
I think you'll see either see the iPhone on both Verizon and Sprint or you will see it released on just Sprint...because
Apple and Verizon are two Very Very Arrogant companies...neither company needs the other in the slightest....Verizon not only turned down the Iphone the 1st time (and Jobs will never forget that) they also mocked the iPhone in their Droid Does commercials (again Jobs will never forget)....Again its not about Money or large subscribers with Apple they have that with ATT...
And if you notice Sprint has been nothing but complenetry to the iPhone (advertising its devices along side it)...Sprint will give Apple the control it wants...and Sprint was never presented the iPhone to turn it down....
So my money is on either the iphone goes to ALL of the big 4 next or Sprint will be the next one with the iPhone....Apple will not wait for LTE because its too far away 2012 at the earliest and they need to keep Google from catching up...Google who is on All carriers even the smallest carriers like Metro and Cricket will be releasing Android phones, while Apple stays locked to ATT...of the 600k pre-orders I'm willing to bet 75-80% are ATT subs upgrading and that does nothing to grow Apples market share.....the People that were willing to switch to ATT for iPhone have already done so in previous versions, the well has run dry on that front..
Yes, Verizon mocked the original iPhone, then the 3G, and continues to do so with the Droid. Last year Verizon didn't have a decent iPhone competitor. It still doesn't, but the developing Droids are as close as its ever been.
Good point about Sprint. The Pre never got momentum and now the EVO is Sprint's best phone, but with a 4G network, it may be an attractive partner. I think if anything, Apple wants a partner that will concede control - the AT&T history has shown people will go to an inferior network for what the device offers, so I don't think Apple is as concerned about getting onto the number one network so much any more - numbers 2 and 3 are good enough perhaps?
Maybe when the LTE network is complete there will be an LTE iPhone - Apple could always just sell it at $600 unlocked - it doesn't need to partner with anyone necessarily.
...of the 600k pre-orders I'm willing to bet 75-80% are ATT subs upgrading and that does nothing to grow Apples market share.....the People that were willing to switch to ATT for iPhone have already done so in previous versions, the well has run dry on that front..
The smartphone market is where the growth is now - plenty of people are upgrading from "dumb phones" to think that here are plenty of first time owners on those preorder lists imo.
Apple and Verizon are two Very Very Arrogant companies...neither company needs the other in the slightest....Verizon not only turned down the Iphone the 1st time (and Jobs will never forget that) they also mocked the iPhone in their Droid Does commercials (again Jobs will never forget)....Again its not about Money or large subscribers with Apple they have that with ATT
True - Both VZ & Apple are two very arrogant companies - but going forward VZw looks vulnerable. Sprints churn rate is getting better and better and so are there quarterly Gross Additions, which means less people are leaving Sprint and going over to VZw -The three biggest markets for VZw in both consumer and enterprise activations are L.A., NYC & San Francisco - all three of these markets are only trending approx 80% to plan for both segments at VZw - these are also Apples biggest markets - Tech, Financial, Medical, Bio-tech, etc - Apple is now capturing the small to medium sized business market, and taking market share away from RIMM and VZw in the process- Android at VZw is not a enterprise device as of yet - Of the 2.7m iPhones sold at ATT last Qtr - approx 870k were in enterprise.
For Apple's stock to continue to rise, analysts and institutional investors need to see additional distribution channels & pipelines to sell the iPhone, Apple currently has 23.2B in cash, just under Cisco, Microsoft and Google but Apples margins and growth outlook are much better and the iPhone represents 51% of the overall value of the stock, so growth is still a key driver to the market value of the company - I agree with you that Sprint would be a very good partner for Apple - 1400 corporate retail stores, 1100 best buys, 4400 Radio Shacks, 700 indirects are a great way to move product with Sprint & with a pretty good network infrastructure in place, they would be able to handle the massive data usage the iPhone would put on their network.
I understand what you're saying about AT&T being a roadblock to lots of Verizon customers, but Apple doesn't chase customers, it plays in the upper ends of its markets, and it is doing very well with that strategy right now. People switching from AT&T to Verizon doesn't do anything for Apple, it just dilutes its influence over AT&T. With 600k+ preorders for the iPhone in the USA and Canada alone, Apple isn't really in need of another channel in the USA to sell its iPhones.
Ahh...But Apple knows they'll sell a butt load more through Verizon.
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