Coronavirus (surgery, daughter, advice)

[wac_432]

Originally Posted by sav858

It almost seemed like officials were doing it to increase spread and issue new lockdown orders because the line of thinking is so backwards and nonsensical.

Some of the local jurisdictions in Northern CA (Santa Cruz, Monterey, Pacific, etc..) closed beaches during Labor Day during a massive and intense heatwave. Luckily other beaches were open and it didn't lead to a surge but I griped at the time how it made no sense and could potentially increase spread by encouraging private or indoor gathering too.

I've got to applaud Newsome for a consistently pragmatic approach to the virus. To understand his actions, you have to view the virus from a realist's point of view. With a few hiccups, he's more or less taking a middle-of-the-road mostly apolitical pathway.

Given:
- Uncontrolled community spread was always inevitable.
- Track and trace would not stop the virus, but it would slightly slow down outbreaks at low cost.
- Shutdowns/restrictions would not stop the virus, but they would significantly slow it down at very high cost.
- A safe and effective vaccine was not likely to be available before the pandemic had spread through most of the population.
- Total lockdowns (of the kind that would be tolerated by Americans) would not stop the virus and would be catastrophically damaging to the economy.

He could choose to balance a response between two mutually-exclusive objectives:
- Minimize deaths/serious illness
- Minimize economic disruption

He chose a weighted response aimed at minimizing deaths and met with good success--compared to other large states. Of the most populous states, CA comes out well on top in terms of lowest death rate:

Deaths/Million

NY 1723
FL 755
TX 613
PA 675
IL 758
OH 441
GA 723
CA 434

Some of that is due to buying time for the healthcare system to find treatments and part of it may be the dumb luck of a less virulent strain hitting the West Coast and then becoming dominant worldwide (evidenced by falling death rates) but even so CA death rates are better than those of western states like Nevada and Arizona, which presumably were infected with similar strains of virus.

So, while I might not be happy with the governor's choice, I will acknowledge that his actions have been consistent; keep the economy on a lifeline while trying to save as many lives as possible.

The reopening orders actually WERE meant to increase spread moderately, because he didn't want to get stuck in the European nightmare:

Having to walk back an indefinite shutdown by the late summer, when people couldn't take it any more, only to have it blow up in their faces with a massive 2nd wave as the weather turned. Europe and New York are certainly a study in what NOT to do:

NY: Ignore it until it is too late, then overreact once everyone is already infected.
Europe: Lock down more than your economies can bear, then whipsaw between openings and closures because not enough of your population is infected.

If you look at case numbers, the summer wave looks bad. However, if you look at deaths, you'll see a much flatter curve. California effectively flattened the curve while simultaneously infecting enough of the population that we can continue moderate reopening without having a huge wave of death overwhelm us...

...hopefully.

[sav858]

Originally Posted by wac_432

I've got to applaud Newsome for a consistently pragmatic approach to the virus. To understand his actions, you have to view the virus from a realist's point of view. With a few hiccups, he's more or less taking a middle-of-the-road mostly apolitical pathway.

Maybe he's done better than most states, I don't know but I think there is plenty he did wrong imo.

-Disjointed reopening's allowing SoCal to surge in May/June then reinstating restrictions statewide.
-Keeping playgrounds closed for as long as they did
-Not pushing harder for school reopening, especially elementary schools
-shutting businesses down in summer that weren't known to be even contributing to community spread
-these ridiculous "guidelines" that are counter productive and sometimes contradictory

I could go on and on. He hasn't done terrible overall but I'd say it's more than a few hiccups and question whether the severe economic damage is really worth all of it. I certainly don't want to be Florida as far as deaths but am not totally convinced these restrictions make as much of a difference as they think or claim when it comes to spread. We're pretty middle of the pack when it comes to the death rate overall.

Mapped: Coronavirus pushes California to nation’s 3rd highest jobless rate
California lost the most jobs in a year, 1.49 million

Middle of the road in deaths yet tops in unemployment....

[NORTY FLATZ]

I figured 3% infection rate, and 1% fatality rate, nationwide.

The way I see it, I'm still in the hunt....

Anyone wanna guess?

[2sleepy]

Originally Posted by sav858

Maybe he's done better than most states, I don't know but I think there is plenty he did wrong imo.

-Disjointed reopening's allowing SoCal to surge in May/June then reinstating restrictions statewide.
-Keeping playgrounds closed for as long as they did
-Not pushing harder for school reopening, especially elementary schools
-shutting businesses down in summer that weren't known to be even contributing to community spread
-these ridiculous "guidelines" that are counter productive and sometimes contradictory

I could go on and on. He hasn't done terrible overall but I'd say it's more than a few hiccups and question whether the severe economic damage is really worth all of it. I certainly don't want to be Florida as far as deaths but am not totally convinced these restrictions make as much of a difference as they think or claim when it comes to spread. We're pretty middle of the pack when it comes to the death rate overall.

Mapped: Coronavirus pushes California to nation’s 3rd highest jobless rate
California lost the most jobs in a year, 1.49 million

Middle of the road in deaths yet tops in unemployment....

I won't go over each of your points, some of with I agree with but the idea that schools should have reopened- I take exception to that, you can't open schools unless teachers are willing to teach and parents are willing to send their kids to school. And right now it doesn't seem like anyone likes distance learning but only about 25% are ok with sending kids back to school.

California does have a high unemployment rate, but the unemployment rate in Nevada and Hawaii are higher. I'm ok with Newsome, I think he acts in what he believes is the best way to help California and that's important to me, even if he is wrong occasionally

[joosoon]

Originally Posted by sav858

I certainly don't want to be Florida as far as deaths but am not totally convinced these restrictions make as much of a difference as they think or claim when it comes to spread. We're pretty middle of the pack when it comes to the death rate overall.

Agree with all that. But initially back in March, the state's actions were primarily meant to keep the ICUs from being overwhelmed. Remember all the teeth gnashing over ventilators? When's the last time anyone's seen a panicky headline about a shortage? We thankfully averted that crisis and the death rate just is was it is. Nobody had to be sacrificed by languishing in the hallways of a hospital. For that we're lucky but it's literally just luck. Meanwhile, I read a headline the other day saying that another ICU was maxed out in Utah as cases surge over there. We certainly could be doing worse.

[sav858]

Originally Posted by 2sleepy

I won't go over each of your points, some of with I agree with but the idea that schools should have reopened- I take exception to that, you can't open schools unless teachers are willing to teach and parents are willing to send their kids to school. And right now it doesn't seem like anyone likes distance learning but only about 25% are ok with sending kids back to school.

California does have a high unemployment rate, but the unemployment rate in Nevada and Hawaii are higher. I'm ok with Newsome, I think he acts in what he believes is the best way to help California and that's important to me, even if he is wrong occasionally

Teachers are essential workers and as long as a district takes proper safety precautions they should have to go back to work like all the other essential workers out there.

Yeah I don’t buy that poll done by the CTA. Would love to see the questions asked and methodology.

HI and NV are states whose economies are highly dependent on tourism, way more than CA. I don’t know how pointing out those states higher unemployment rate makes Ca look any better at all, it actually makes it look worse because of our diverse economy. You know “5th largest economy in the world”?

Newsom has always been a sleezeball imo, one of the few democrats that makes me vote republican. That billion deal with BYD was so shady.

[2sleepy]

Originally Posted by sav858

Teachers are essential workers and as long as a district takes proper safety precautions they should have to go back to work like all the other essential workers out there.

Yeah I don’t buy that poll done by the CTA. Would love to see the questions asked and methodology.

HI and NV are states whose economies are highly dependent on tourism, way more than CA. I don’t know how pointing out those states higher unemployment rate makes Ca look any better at all, it actually makes it look worse because of our diverse economy. You know “5th largest economy in the world”?

Newsom has always been a sleezeball imo, one of the few democrats that makes me vote republican. That billion deal with BYD was so shady.

Unfortunately what could have been a decent discussion turned into another hit job on Gavin Newsom...

[looker009]

Originally Posted by joosoon

Agree with all that. But initially back in March, the state's actions were primarily meant to keep the ICUs from being overwhelmed. Remember all the teeth gnashing over ventilators? When's the last time anyone's seen a panicky headline about a shortage? We thankfully averted that crisis and the death rate just is was it is. Nobody had to be sacrificed by languishing in the hallways of a hospital. For that we're lucky but it's literally just luck. Meanwhile, I read a headline the other day saying that another ICU was maxed out in Utah as cases surge over there. We certainly could be doing worse.

Hospitals can always set up field tent if more room is needed. They can request governor to call in national guards and even active military unit to help with if needed. It's not like we do not have resources available that can help.

[sav858]

Originally Posted by 2sleepy

Unfortunately what could have been a decent discussion turned into another hit job on Gavin Newsom...

Only the last two sentences of my post talked about Newsom but that’s what you choose to focus solely on? Sounds more like a cop out. Some people don’t like Newsom, don’t take it so personal....

[joosoon]

Originally Posted by sav858

Yeah I don’t buy that poll done by the CTA. Would love to see the questions asked and methodology.

There's no direct link to the actual survey that I could find, but this is what they've been referencing in all our emails lately. The results weren't that only 25% wanted to return to in-person, it's that roughly 60% percent weren't comfortable with the plans to implement the return. But they only polled 500 people too. Meanwhile back in late spring, our own district polled parents and the results were overwhelmingly in favor of some sort of in-person option. That poll had over 50k respondents which is just under half the student population (we're the 2nd biggest district statewide). More anecdotally from someone on the front lines right now, parents are chomping at the bit to return and aren't happy with the tiny in-person offerings at the moment.


In defense of those who don't want to return though, the information in that link above paints an accurate picture of how ill-prepared schools are to do a complete return with all the necessary safety measures in place. The biggest issue is providing the space for students in classrooms. Schools just aren't equipped to handle the capacity load. That means there has to be a split roster schedule at the minimum, unless the state lifts those restrictions on how many bodies can occupy indoor space.