Coronavirus (Imperial: psychologist, disabled, international)

[Finper]

Originally Posted by wac_432

You're going to have to stop using Sweden as your whipping boy. They ARE likely near herd immunity, seeing as they have an average of 150 cases per day and 1 death, despite taking no significant precautions and their summer holidays ending (there was a tiny 2-3% "surge" correlating to that).

Looking back at the beginning of the pandemic, we can see that they had about 100 deaths per day corresponding to 500 cases per day. At no point in time was COVID-19 ever 20% fatal--especially not in a country with good fitness and health care. It was never even 2% fatal (except for those over 75). The first wave was around 0.2% fatal in the USA, and the present wave is below 0.15%.

That means the Swedes did not test their true number of actual cases by a factor of 100 or more in April. That may have improved somewhat since then but--given that their death curve is totally decoupled from their infection curve--it's pretty clear that they totally missed the vast majority of their infections. In fact, if you take the total number of Swedish infections (86,000) and multiply by 100, or 85 to be conservative, you get about 7 million actual infections. Population of Sweden is 10M. There's your 70% immune.

Verification with IFR doesn't go so well. Even assuming their death rate was 0.12% due to good health, youth, and healthcare, only gets you to maybe 50-60% based on reported deaths. I mean, it's in the same realm, and tweaking IFR down just a little bit more gets you there, so maybe.

In any case, if you can come up with a better explanation for cases falling off a cliff in places like Sweden, Arizona, Florida, Here, etc, other than herd immunity. I'm all ears.

213 positives out of 7 million in Az today and Az never fully shut down and never closed their restaurants to inside dinning. The business I sold in Ca was a vendor to restaurants. If restaurants are closed forever those vendors like alcohol food suppliers, upholsterers, grease trap cleaners, janitors also go out of business. Ca needs to reopen this is ridiculous and totally political.

[roadwarrior101]

Originally Posted by looker009

You will never get any state to do full lockdown, even New York never did full lockdown as that is just unrealistic in US. To do full lockdown you basically need to do full lockdown of US at the same time as that is just 100% impossible. My plan is to fully reopen the economy and let the cards fall where they do. Hospitals had plenty of time to get ready, now it's time to dance.



I am aware of 2 country that didn't lock anything down Belarus and Sweden. Look at their numbers, they are much better compare to many other that did lock everything down. Maybe just maybe herd immunity works.

You didn't answer my question. How do you propose we solve for this?

That's right, you want your cake and you want to eat it too. Your actions are causing a self fulfilling prophecy regarding COVID spread + the inability to fully reopen the economy.

[joosoon]

Originally Posted by looker009

What are you suggesting? Should we keep dinning in closed for the next 9-12 months?

Not really. I'm merely pointing out how policy hasn't been following the science very well. The latest data about in-person dining hasn't made its way into the formula yet. Over half a year into shutdowns, etc. and the state/local authorities are still just winging it.

[Tulemutt]

Originally Posted by roadwarrior101

You didn't answer my question. How do you propose we solve for this?

That's right, you want your cake and you want to eat it too. Your actions are causing a self fulfilling prophecy regarding COVID spread + the inability to fully reopen the economy.

Roadwarrior ... you must remember that the poster you are debating with has only one intent: to create discord by “flooding the zone with sh*t”. That’s it. Beginning and end of story

[joosoon]

Originally Posted by roadwarrior101

1. Real Lockdown for 6-8 weeks to "starve" COVID

Looking back, I wonder had this happened in the beginning, where we'd be at now. If it had worked and case numbers dropped to nothing, we wouldn't be talking about this any more. That's sort of a given, I think. However, if it failed and case numbers followed the same trajectory as they did from March until now, would it even make sense to bother with masks, and half-closures, and limited capacities and everything else? In other words, if the nuclear option didn't work, why would we bother with the lesser measures?

[saibot]

Originally Posted by roadwarrior101

So, how do you propose we get back to normal then? Open schools? You've seen other places try this already at the elementary, high school and university level. In all of these cases, COVID has spread out of control and they've been forced to shut down again.

Blatantly false. Not all schools have seen out-of-control Covid spread; only a small percentage have. You only hear about the few which have had a problem, not the many which haven't.

[joosoon]

Originally Posted by Finper

213 positives out of 7 million in Az today and Az never fully shut down and never closed their restaurants to inside dinning. The business I sold in Ca was a vendor to restaurants. If restaurants are closed forever those vendors like alcohol food suppliers, upholsterers, grease trap cleaners, janitors also go out of business. Ca needs to reopen this is ridiculous and totally political.

San Diego is and has been partially "open" other than schools and even that's just now starting to trickle in with individual districts here and there. I imagine if the state rescinded everything today, there would be a flurry of lawsuits from the most aggressively targeted businesses of the shut down over the necessity of it all. The state can't just roll back everything now with case counts at current levels without looking like doing so in the first place was unnecessary. And who knows, maybe when this chapter of history is closed, that will be the actual case. But for now, the state is sort of stuck with its creation.


I'm not defending the decisions either. I just know how the leadership here thinks.

[joosoon]

Originally Posted by saibot

Blatantly false. Not all schools have seen out-of-control Covid spread; only a small percentage have. You only hear about the few which have had a problem, not the many which haven't.

Two preschools in my neighborhood, practically across the street from one another, both have been open and operating since early or mid summer. According to parents I know, both have very different protocols in place. One has very strict rules --campus closed to all but students and staff, masks on everyone, etc.-- the other only has staff wearing masks, parents still pick up right from the classrooms, students are more free to congregate. Neither has had to do a total shutdown if what I'm told from parents is true.


Most data I've seen (including what SDUSD bases their continued closures on) indicates staff to staff transmission is where the issue lies, not student to student or student to staff or vice versa.

[CA4Now]

Originally Posted by Finper

213 positives out of 7 million in Az today and Az never fully shut down and never closed their restaurants to inside dinning....Ca needs to reopen this is ridiculous and totally political.

"Today"? Who would be looking at only today? Cumulative confirmed cases in Arizona per 100 K: 3,001.6; deaths per 100 K: 76.6. In California, confirmed cases per 100 K: 1,943.8; deaths per 100 K: 36.7.

https://www.latimes.com/projects/cal...king-outbreak/

[2sleepy]

Originally Posted by looker009

My plan is to get back to living our life. Let Doctors deal with the sick and those that arwe dying which is what they always been doing

56% of adults in the US are at risk for dying from Covid, they are either elderly, obese or have chronic disease like diabetes or high blood pressure. So you want to lock down over half the population huh? 25% of practicing physicians are over 65. 24% of teachers in the US are in a high risk category for catching covid.

In other words you don't have a plan