Is it really that bad in Bend. (Salem, Huntington: real estate market, home equity)

[rooster01]

Hi all,
I am looking at a business opportunity in Bend. I realize that Bend has been hit especially hard by the recession, but would like to know if and how it has changed people there. Is there a lot of anger/frustration? Has the community pulled together well? My perception from afar has been that those that came to Bend to make a quick buck in real estate are dissapointed and leaving, and that those that are there because they love it are sticking around. True or not? Anybody think
Bend will be a better place after all this? If I come, it will be for at least 20 years, so I am looking at the character of the community.

[sarahkate_m]

Originally Posted by rooster01

Hi all,
I am looking at a business opportunity in Bend. I realize that Bend has been hit especially hard by the recession, but would like to know if and how it has changed people there. Is there a lot of anger/frustration? Has the community pulled together well? My perception from afar has been that those that came to Bend to make a quick buck in real estate are dissapointed and leaving, and that those that are there because they love it are sticking around. True or not? Anybody think
Bend will be a better place after all this? If I come, it will be for at least 20 years, so I am looking at the character of the community.

I think it'll turn around but it could be... sssslow, due to economic issues worldwide!

From my perspective, it had begun to look/sound like a new Palm Springs type mecca in the five years I've lived in OR. If the town doesn't go into ghetto decline, it should survive.

What convinced me of the "mecca" impression was reading that service people had to be imported from south of the border. The reasoning, IMO, is that there's no reason for a regular American to go live in the desert in OR, earning minimum wage in a high cost of living area, many miles away from amenities.

However, if one originally hails from a shanty town where dirt floors & outdoor open sewers are the norm, anything even a garage with a cement floor & cold running water with a toilet will be nirvana.

I saw such a scenario growing up in Huntington Park, CA in the '70's. Business needs service workers. Low wage imported workers serve a need for corporate greed.

As long as Bend doesn't decline & as long as there are available low wage workers to serve the people who are special enough for the high cost of living: the community will survive.

Good luck with your business venture: entrepreneurialism is what America is all about. I'd love to find my own niche as well!

Warmly,

Kate

[Bendite]

Originally Posted by rooster01

Hi all,
I am looking at a business opportunity in Bend. I realize that Bend has been hit especially hard by the recession, but would like to know if and how it has changed people there. Is there a lot of anger/frustration? Has the community pulled together well? My perception from afar has been that those that came to Bend to make a quick buck in real estate are dissapointed and leaving, and that those that are there because they love it are sticking around. True or not? Anybody think
Bend will be a better place after all this? If I come, it will be for at least 20 years, so I am looking at the character of the community.

I don't think there is a lot of anger and frustration - there is a lot of determination. I'm one of the many forced out of business due to the recession and I have friends who are struggling to hold on until things get better but there isn't a lot of grumping - it is what it is and you make the best of it. You are right, there were a number of people who smelled pay dirt and came to town, leaving when it got tough. There are those who are here because they feel there really isn't anywhere else to go. And there are many here who are sticking it out because this is where they want to live. Four years ago, people were talking about how Bend would be the next Vail or Aspen - I think I would have left if that had actually happened. I think things are going to settle into a slow growth (once the tumbling downward finally stops) and the real estate rush will be a flash in the historical pan. Because it is so beautiful in Central Oregon, it will always be a desirable place to live, so there will be growth. This would be a great time to take advantage of a business opportunity - plenty of employee candidates, housing price is low, and the community is hungry for people who want to stay for the right reasons.

[delta07]

I moved to Bend last year, so I don't know how it was at the height of the real estate market. However, I think Bend is a great community and while it has been hurt hard, I think many people are hanging in there because they do love this place! One advantage we had in moving to Bend when we did, was the fact that we were able to buy a home. It sounds like we probably would not have been able to afford one had we moved here even two years ago. I do think Bend will be a better place after all this, but I wouldn't say that too loud here right now. There are many, many struggling families who have lost everything. Just take a look at our homeless population or those who are seeking community assistance. It has risen dramatically in the last year.

[rooster01]

Thank you so much for your responses. Actually, this is exactly what I wanted to know. I can take my business to Texas and make a killing. Or I can go to Bend and make a living. But if I can find a community with regular people that have expectations of themselves and their community, even it hard times, I'll go for that. Your responses basically confirmed my suspicions. I know this may seem weird, but I have absolutely no idea how to raise my kids without the outdoors at my doorstep. So looks like Bend may be a winner.

[Silverfall]

You know I think one of the reasons that it is "that bad" in Bend is because people are trying to stay there because they love it. I just met a mom who very reluctantly moved from central Oregon over to Salem. She loved living there but finally they gave up trying to find work and moved to Salem where her hubby found work.

Bend is a beautiful city. I have friends that live there and they are very happy there. It's only around 80,000 people, but it is a really active, alive city. Bend has been trying to diversify their economy by getting a 4 year university there, and I believe that part of OSU's programs will be located in Bend soon. That will help to stabilize the economy there which is pretty tourism based.

[Fiddlehead]

Hi rooster,

Your timing is not bad, so long as you don't buy a house without due diligence. The Bend bubble was fueled primarily by speculative building and trolling for Californians (Oh it so affordable here! Homes are only $400k, so much cheaper than Marin!). The fact that the Californian and Bend prices had not connection to wages was the problem and still may be. If your business is a good one, shop around and find your spot. Bend is not going anywhere, but you do not want to catch a falling knife. Bend must fall until it connects to reality, then things will look up. I agree that it is a fine town with a strong vision for the future, and it will recover. I just can't put a timeline on that.

As someone who has lived adn struggled in unaffordable S. Oregon for 8 years, I can attest that finding a place with good cost of living relative to your projected income is a wise move. Whether that be in Bend or elsewhere. Money is not everything, but not nothing either, so keep doing your homework, find the best fit, and jump! Best wishes!

[davefr]

Originally Posted by rooster01

Anybody think Bend will be a better place after all this? If I come, it will be for at least 20 years, so I am looking at the character of the community.

It depends on your definition of "better". Once Bend bottoms out it'll likely stagnate or grow at a very slow rate. That's probably "better" if you simply want to enjoy the quality of life and already have an employment plan. It's probably "worse" if your plan requires growth or property appreciation.

Bend's economic base has been rooted primarily in tourism and influx from California.

Tourism is largely based on discretionary income and fuel prices. Population growth has been based on cashing out equity in Calif. and sinking into Bend.

Tourism will probably fluctuate and out of state growth is dead since a large percentage of home equity has gone "poof".

Bend doesn't have a manufacturing base and probably never will due to where it's located.

I personally think Bend will eventually resume a more "normal" pattern like other medium sized cities in the NW.

[Fiddlehead]

Originally Posted by davefr

It depends on your definition of "better". Once Bend bottoms out it'll likely stagnate or grow at a very slow rate. That's probably "better" if you simply want to enjoy the quality of life and already have an employment plan. It's probably "worse" if your plan requires growth or property appreciation.

Bend's economic base has been rooted primarily in tourism and influx from California.

Tourism is largely based on discretionary income and fuel prices. Population growth has been based on cashing out equity in Calif. and sinking into Bend.

Tourism will probably fluctuate and out of state growth is dead since a large percentage of home equity has gone "poof".

Bend doesn't have a manufacturing base and probably never will due to where it's located.

I personally think Bend will eventually resume a more "normal" pattern like other medium sized cities in the NW.

Great synopsis davefr! I think you hit the major ingredients. I would only add this. The loss of the timber economy in Oregon was disguised by the building spree fueled by the huge influx of Californians who cashed in on the dot.com the real estate bubble, this allowed men with high school or less education to keep earning good money. Those days are done and the check is due. Oregon will have to retool and reeducate its work force, and that may take time.

Now in Bend, there are plenty of folks who would choose to pull pints, ski patrol, and river guide in season, but those service jobs usually don't provide the income to buy $300k homes, and if they do, folks won't have much left over..I suspect it will settle into an economy like western Colorado. A bunch of dirt poor locals catering to rich folks in season, who over time come to own much of the real estate. Not sure what that means for individual business ventures...

[Woof]

Does anyone have updates on the Bend economy since this thread began?