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Electric car costs. Have some expenses been over looked while making electric vehicle purchases?
I think so, here is why. Lets start with the battery and say it adds 10,000 dollars to the cost of the Vehicle. The battery represents 10 years of prepaid fuel in the form of potential energy that you are paying for up front.
You have just financed the car manufactures venture of going into the energy business long term.
Add to that the (25 percent federal tax) of the money borrowed for that battery up front with earned income you have already paid taxes on. You are now into that battery for 12,500 which invested a 5% over 10 years. now your battery cost has grown to 20,587 dollars.
Think about it, this is the first time people have paid for long term potential energy of a drive battery, rather then the physical energy gasoline represents. You also have the pleasure of paying for electricity to keep the battery full of its (lets call it electrical gas)
It turns out these costs are substantial, in both hybrids and electric vehicles. (plug_ins)
Then factor in a percentage of warranty failures and the pro-rated discount applied to another 10 year battery at a cost of 20,000 plus more dollars(see example above). So the second 10 years of ownership of an EV could get interesting financially.
It gets more complex because electrical rates vary so the cost of charging your battery can be more then the cost of gasoline.
Tax rebates are limited to 200,000 cars per manufacture so if the .045% per thousand of existing electric cars does not grow parts may be hard to get for a given models as time passes.
The assumption that this entire nonsensical rant relies on is that you paid $12,500 more for the car because it was electric. I paid the same amount for my Tesla, less actually, than I would have if I had gone for the BMW or Audi.
Gas pumps don’t work during rolling blackout either.
I’m exploring the installation of a solar system at my house that generates 101% of my typical usage. It would lock my monthly electric payments in for the next 20 years in 2019 dollars.
Furthermore, I decided to lease my EV. I did a TVM calculation and felt like this made the most sense. It’s currently saving me $250 a month on fuel costs and I get to give it back in 3 years. I don’t care about years 10-20. I don’t even care about years 4-10. What am I missing?
As a lease short term getting your feet wet in the E.V. market could be a good entry point.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SkyDog77
The assumption that this entire nonsensical rant relies on is that you paid $12,500 more for the car because it was electric. I paid the same amount for my Tesla, less actually, than I would have if I had gone for the BMW or Audi.
Gas pumps don’t work during rolling blackout either.
I’m exploring the installation of a solar system at my house that generates 101% of my typical usage. It would lock my monthly electric payments in for the next 20 years in 2019 dollars.
Furthermore, I decided to lease my EV. I did a TVM calculation and felt like this made the most sense. It’s currently saving me $250 a month on fuel costs and I get to give it back in 3 years. I don’t care about years 10-20. I don’t even care about years 4-10. What am I missing?
My experience as an industrial electrician and as a wheel and track mechanic is where the information is based.
As a lease short term getting your feet wet in the E.V. market could be an educational entry point.
Gas pumps for years have been required to have backup power. At worst in an emergency, a backup generator and an electrician will bring a gas station back on line at a minimal cost in a short time.
I think the biggest assumption and failure here is the life of the battery. It was assumed that hybrid batteries would only last 8-12 years. We now know that even the earliest mainstream hybrid batteries last double that while maintaining 70-90% of their initial charge.
I'd imagine that the higher quality batteries being used in today's electric cars would last either that long or longer.
There is positive news concerning longevity in the battery industry.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TexasLawyer2000
I think the biggest assumption and failure here is the life of the battery. It was assumed that hybrid batteries would only last 8-12 years. We now know that even the earliest mainstream hybrid batteries last double that while maintaining 70-90% of their initial charge.
I'd imagine that the higher quality batteries being used in today's electric cars would last either that long or longer.
There is positive news concerning longevity in the battery industry. But the results of both battery testing and actual experience by drivers may vary.
A drivers battery education and environment have a lot to do with maximum battery life.
Might want to read that article again - a few gas stations in 3 south Florida counties are required to have wiring to support back up power - NOT close to your statement "Gas pumps for years have been required to have backup power." - does not apply to 99.99% of the stations in the US and even those it does apply to are not required to have backup power, only wiring to support.
Getting ahead of yourself, OP . Until we possess a reliably high-amp grid across the nation, the charging grid will suck. And furthermore, until we have the next innovation in battery tech, range will suck and they’ll consume vast amounts of somewhat rare materials, some of which might be from questionable sources.
Press on with EV, I get it, even if I don’t care to drive one. The premature push will make for a way to make those investments pay off.
Meanwhile, my Civic at mid-high 40s for fuel economy is perfectly fine.
There is positive news concerning longevity in the battery industry. But the results of both battery testing and actual experience by drivers may vary.
A drivers battery education and environment have a lot to do with maximum battery life.
I couldn't agree more. That's why in Canada, at the 15 year rate, people are only seeing a capacity of 70% battery left while here in the states it is much higher (with the exception of states by the great lakes). And that's for NIMH. Lithium batteries are more promising.
Electric car costs. Have some expenses been over looked while making electric vehicle purchases?
I think so, here is why. Lets start with the battery and say it adds 10,000 dollars to the cost of the Vehicle. The battery represents 10 years of prepaid fuel in the form of potential energy that you are paying for up front.
You have just financed the car manufactures venture of going into the energy business long term.
Add to that the (25 percent federal tax) of the money borrowed for that battery up front with earned income you have already paid taxes on. You are now into that battery for 12,500 which invested a 5% over 10 years. now your battery cost has grown to 20,587 dollars.
Think about it, this is the first time people have paid for long term potential energy of a drive battery, rather then the physical energy gasoline represents. You also have the pleasure of paying for electricity to keep the battery full of its (lets call it electrical gas)
It turns out these costs are substantial, in both hybrids and electric vehicles. (plug_ins)
Then factor in a percentage of warranty failures and the pro-rated discount applied to another 10 year battery at a cost of 20,000 plus more dollars(see example above). So the second 10 years of ownership of an EV could get interesting financially.
Your analysis is a little off, you pay for a battery once up front, when you buy the car. You are essentially double counting the cost of the battery based on the notion that you may have to replace it in 10 years and inflating the current cost at a very high inflation rate to get expected future costs. If you really felt the need to capture the battery replacement as potential cost today of an EV, that analysis of current cost would include the discounted expected future costs not inflate current assumed costs, you have it backward.
Your analysis makes a lot of assumptions that are far from reality, some of them are that all EV batteries have similar costs, that the battery has a finite life expectancy and must be replaced in 10 years, that it cannot be refurbished, that current costs are fixed with no expectation of cheaper future costs and no ability to recover any residual value from repurposing or recycling. Your analysis would be the same as counting the cost of replacing an engine or transmission at current costs for a gas car because they may need to be replaced in 10 years and unable to rebuilt it and count that as an expected future cost.
Quote:
Originally Posted by corolla5speed
It gets more complex because electrical rates vary so the cost of charging your battery can be more then the cost of gasoline.
Where is that true. Currently, it is much cheaper to fill an EV than a gas vehicle - even in the highest electricity cost areas of the US. Filling an Tesla Model 3 battery 80% (from 10% to 90% full) requires about 60 kWh, at a normal electricity cost of $0.125 / kWh would cost about $7.50 and get about 240 miles of range. An equivalent car gets about 30 MPG, that would require about 8 gallons and at a lower cost of gas of $2.50 a gal would cost about $20 or almost 3x as much. In CA electricity can be 2-3x as much but gas is also about 2x as much, still cheaper for EV. Most utilities also have EV rates that lower the electricity cost significantly. Where I am in CA, the EV rate lowers the normal $0.30/kWh super off peak rate to $0.09/kWh and in NV it is lowered to $0.044/kWh. The cost for me to fill is less than $3 in NV - gas would have to be around $0.35 / gal to match that - the road tax is more than that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by corolla5speed
Tax rebates are limited to 200,000 cars per manufacture so if the .045% per thousand of existing electric cars does not grow parts may be hard to get for a given models as time passes.
To clarify, these are not rolling blackouts, rolling blackout are due to insufficient power to provide needs. These are power outages to try and prevent fires caused by utilities and are fixed locations based on fire risks. I have a couple of EVs and have never had an issue charging.
Your analysis is a little off, you pay for a battery once up front, when you buy the car. You are essentially double counting the cost of the battery based on the notion that you may have to replace it in 10 years and inflating the current cost at a very high inflation rate to get expected future costs. If you really felt the need to capture the battery replacement as potential cost today of an EV, that analysis of current cost would include the discounted expected future costs not inflate current assumed costs, you have it backward.
Your analysis makes a lot of assumptions that are far from reality, some of them are that all EV batteries have similar costs, that the battery has a finite life expectancy and must be replaced in 10 years, that it cannot be refurbished, that current costs are fixed with no expectation of cheaper future costs and no ability to recover any residual value from repurposing or recycling. Your analysis would be the same as counting the cost of replacing an engine or transmission at current costs for a gas car because they may need to be replaced in 10 years and unable to rebuilt it and count that as an expected future cost.
Where is that true. Currently, it is much cheaper to fill an EV than a gas vehicle - even in the highest electricity cost areas of the US. Filling an Tesla Model 3 battery 80% (from 10% to 90% full) requires about 60 kWh, at a normal electricity cost of $0.125 / kWh would cost about $7.50 and get about 240 miles of range. An equivalent car gets about 30 MPG, that would require about 8 gallons and at a lower cost of gas of $2.50 a gal would cost about $20 or almost 3x as much. In CA electricity can be 2-3x as much but gas is also about 2x as much, still cheaper for EV. Most utilities also have EV rates that lower the electricity cost significantly. Where I am in CA, the EV rate lowers the normal $0.30/kWh super off peak rate to $0.09/kWh and in NV it is lowered to $0.044/kWh. The cost for me to fill is less than $3 in NV - gas would have to be around $0.35 / gal to match that - the road tax is more than that.
This makes no sense - what does rebates have to do with spare parts or EV use in other countries.
To clarify, these are not rolling blackouts, rolling blackout are due to insufficient power to provide needs. These are power outages to try and prevent fires caused by utilities and are fixed locations based on fire risks. I have a couple of EVs and have never had an issue charging.
Electric rates are different all over the U.S. Here is what the U.S. Government say's the rates are. Also note the increases and the population centers with these higher rates.
All of the variables you mentioned about battery life are debatable.
Blackouts do happen, storms do occur, Back-up batteries and solar panels may fix it long term but E.V. are a new technology that have yet to figure many of their future problems out yet. Many more blackout occur in the U.S. then you think.
The cost of the battery that you are comparing to the engine and drive train is fair. However remember the I.C.E. car industry is not sitting on its hands while the E.V's roll out. I.C.E. have already proven themselves to be capable of doing 1.000,000 miles on a drive train by adding a larger oil pan and upping the oil filtering capacity. At minimal cost in the grand scheme of things.
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As a lease short term getting your feet wet in the E.V. market could be a good entry point.
