Prop 1 Open Thread (Austin: contractor, upkeep, to live in)

[Roadking2003]

Originally Posted by je4xff

The numbers I think most interesting are in green and red. The green numbers estimate the percentage of total area vehicles that will be removed from roads. We're looking at around a 1% overall reduction.

The red numbers show the cost per vehicle removal. This number scares me, and I do realize as a long term plan it will drop over time. But it still seems astronomically high to me.

It appears that in the beginning (2022) we're looking at a cost of $140,000 to remove each vehicle. (1.4 billion/10,000 vehicles). It drops to around $77,000 per vehicle by 2030 but still... I'm thinking I must have made a math error somewhere.

Someone please tell me it's just really late and my logic is flawed...

Where did you get the statistic that 10,000 vehicles will be removed by 2022?

[Roadking2003]

Originally Posted by scm53

You're not wrong. But like in so many examples, the pro-Prop 1 crowd are using misleading data when they say that there will be "10,000 cars taken off the streets". The flaw is in thinking every rider is currently in a car, by themselves. There is a long, detailed study here of why the real number of cars off the street is closer to 1,800/day -- for multiple reasons (some number are current transit riders, 1.2 occupants per car is a better accepted best practice, etc.) What is worse is when you take that 1,800 number and apply it against the travel times. You then realize it is only about 100 cars/hour at peak congestion times.

So divide that 1,800 number into $1.4B if you really want a headache.

The 1800 number is much more believable. I think even that number is optimistic since a lot of those people will just move from a bus to a train.

[mayfair44]

Proposition 1 rail is expensive white elephant | The Daily Texan

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by mayfair44

Proposition 1 rail is expensive white elephant | The Daily Texan

Same old lies that keep getting posted on this site.

No, the 2000 plan didn't only cost $300M.

No, commuter buses don't only cost $3.

[mayfair44]

Originally Posted by Novacek

Same old lies that keep getting posted on this site.

No, the 2000 plan didn't only cost $300M.

No, commuter buses don't only cost $3.

+ 1 minutiae

Despite any small "corrections" you may find to the hypotheticals drawn by those attempting to give a historical timeline, the general FACTS remain. "Would" is a key word, and your "points" do not refute that:

1)The 2000 plan WAS viable, had it not barely failed; votes for not only came from the urbanites; a true, viable N/S backbone starter line would have legs to pass in Nov, if it was on the ballot

2)The 2004 redline was a COMPROMISE (commuter-suburban vs light rail-urban), that set this town further back, ten yrs.

3)Prop 1 is yet another "developmental" path, "white elephant," REDLINE DEUX, and the pro-rail advocates who understand and know this aren't buying; social media and online forums have created a better-informed base vs the past

4)despite all the future setbacks ($, 10-1, etc) and imperfections, that is still not a reason to vote YES on a "now or never" flawed plan, especially at the expense of those who ride the bus daily, for their livelihood

Congratulations, you got a reply back from me. Response was really for the others like myself, who have filtered you out, long ago.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by mayfair44

+ 1 minutiae

Sure, what's being off _500%_ between friends.

Originally Posted by mayfair44

1)The 2000 plan WAS viable,

Certainly. And I wished it would have passed.

(well, mostly viable. There were certain financial assumptions it made that were probably overly optimistic. So we would have had it, but would have paid more for it than expected).

Originally Posted by mayfair44

votes for not only came from the urbanites;

Not entirely, no, but there was a definite difference in support that broke along those lines. Urban for (generally) suburban against (generally).

Originally Posted by mayfair44

a true, viable N/S backbone starter line would have legs to pass in Nov, if it was on the ballot

The current proposal _is_ a viable N/S backbone starter line.

As to whether proposing the exact same (or near enough) G/L line would pass in november, that's more of a stretch. Maybe, yes, but there's no guarantee (just like with the current proposal)

1. As noted above, suburbanites were generally against the original 2000 proposal. Suburbanites now account for a larger proportion of the Austin electorate than in 2000.

2. The electorate in 2000 was generally ignorant of the true ramifications of what they were voting for in November. That would no longer be the case (the process and tradeoffs are much more open nowadays). Would the electorate now vote:
1. To lose half the lanes of Lamar
2. To lose 3/4 of the lanes on Guadalupe for several blocks
3. Future loses of lanes on bridges and south congress

Again, perhaps, but there would be a _lot_ of push back with such a proposal.

[mayfair44]

New Let's Go ad:

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?sto...dIg6qplBt&_rdr

[Roadking2003]

Originally Posted by mayfair44

Proposition 1 rail is expensive white elephant | The Daily Texan

Good link. Buses are faster, cheaper and more flexible. You can change bus routes, increase bus count very quickly and save tons of money compared to rail.

[Roadking2003]

We say Project Connect is worse than nothing because it wastes our limited transportation funds, costing hundreds of millions of dollars more than an equivalent MetroRapid bus line would. If implemented, the operating costs of this system will take funds away from the rest of the transit service, weakening public transit overall. We’ll be spending a lot of money to move 8-10k Austinites while the whole city needs better transit. An analysis by transit advocate Julio Gonzalez projects that overall Capital Metro ridership in Austin will most likely drop significantly due to this shift of funds.

There is also virtually no chance that Project Connect will relieve congestion. In the best possible case it will slow the growth of congestion very slightly. If it reduces overall ridership, though, then more Austinites will take their cars, and congestion will increase.

Rail fans should VOTE NO on Austin's Prop 1.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by Roadking2003

We say Project Connect is worse than nothing because it wastes our limited transportation funds, costing hundreds of millions of dollars more than an equivalent MetroRapid bus line would.

"equivalent"?

So lane separated, new bridge crossing, grade separation from the freight rail (so it doesn't get stuck for 10 minutes behind a freight train)?

4 new park and rides? New transit stops?