Prop 1 Open Thread (Austin: apartments, calculation, assess)

[HappyTexan]

Originally Posted by Novacek

Uh, bonds are 5-7 years.

That's why it's ~$200 /household/year. If it was spread over 30 years it would be a _lot_ less.

How do you know so much more detail than the City of Austin does ?



Tax and Financial Information | Capital Planning | AustinTexas.gov - The Official Website of the City of Austin
Actual tax rates, interest rates, maturity dates, aggregate outstanding indebtedness and interest on such debt, will only be established and known at the time that bonds and notes are issued.

Here's Austin's "loophole" for getting more money from its residents via other means.
You'd be giving them a blank check if property taxes aren't enough.

2014 Bond | Capital Planning | AustinTexas.gov - The Official Website of the City of Austin
All of the debt would be repaid by property taxes or other lawfully available funds.

[ATX Wahine]

Originally Posted by HappyTexan

Actual tax rates, interest rates, maturity dates, aggregate outstanding indebtedness and interest on such debt, will only be established and known at the time that bonds and notes are issued.

I threw my hands in the air when I reached that point as I was reading the city page.

"Vote for this now, and get your actual bill for it later."

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by HappyTexan

How do you know so much more detail than the City of Austin does ?

You mean the City of Austin that says they'll be 5 year bonds?

~217 (probably actually less, given that new property comes on the rolls) based on 5 years. Less if they sell 7 year notes. Way less if they somehow manage to sell 30 year notes, because Math.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by Nor Cal Wahine

I threw my hands in the air when I reached that point as I was reading the city page.

"Vote for this now, and get your actual bill for it later."

That's how it's always done, and it's unavoidable. They _can't_ know for sure, they can only give their best (and conservative) estimate.

What's the interest rate in 3 years? Will the bonds have a 4% rate, or 4.125, or 4.25?

[ATX Wahine]

I'll repeat again that most homes in Austin are currently valued at over 200k. Which means the taxpayer's bill will likely be significantly higher than 217/yr. It's a bit disingenuous then to quote that yearly figure considering that fact and of course, the fact that the actual tax rate cannot even be established until *after* it's been approved.

Too much fuzzy math and not enough value-add for this family to consider a yes vote.

[gpurcell]

Take the dollars.

Take the number of households in Austin.

Divide.

The average cost is well north of $300 without including interest.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by gpurcell

Take the dollars.

Take the number of households in Austin.

Divide.

The average cost is well north of $300 without including interest.

Uh, for one thing, you're completely forgetting about commercial properties.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by gpurcell

Take the dollars.

Take the number of households in Austin.

Divide.

The average cost is well north of $300 without including interest.

In addition, your simplified dividing makes the implicit assumption that property values are symmetrically distributed (basically that the mean and the median are the same). This won't be the case for Austin, as with some thought you can see that there are 800k houses, but no houses are valued at -600k.

[gpurcell]

The COA--and you--are deceptively conflating "cost to average household" with "average cost per household" to make the nut seem smaller than it is.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by gpurcell

The COA--and you--are deceptively conflating "cost to average household" with "average cost per household" to make the nut seem smaller than it is.

Where? I'm pretty sure they've used the former. As the later is basically meaningless (it's too skewed by outliers). Real statisticians use medians, not means.