Aurora Borealis Questions (Fairbanks, Fort Yukon: extended stay, 2015, hotels)

[ShouldIMoveOrStayPut...?]

So according to some predictions this is supposed to be one of if not the best years and months to see the Aurora in Alaska, March is statistically the best month and the sun is in the process of having one of it's "heartbeats" which occur every 11 years or so (see NASA link below)


http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/im..._predict_I.gif

Now not that 2014 or even 2015 would be unfavorable, but the top of the hill appears to be now. although the peak is suposed to last until 2015. It would, however, require me to scramble last minute to go and I may have to pay a higher airfare, etc. as a result. Fairbanks region is where I was planning on going and the Chena Hot Springs Resort outside the City has a package but it is only for three days or so, short window to be able to see them.

I have also heard it stated that you should go when you are able to spend the most time, somewhat regardless of predictions as they are not always accurate, are just a prediction after all and subject to a number of variables. Being able to spend a week or two off the predicted peak would be better than three to four days at a predicted peak

Any thoughts would be most appreciated, also, can anyone suggest any good options for longer term lodging in the Fairbanks or above region if i decide to go next year for a week or longer?

[RayinAK]

I know that all the scientific reports pointed to 2013 as a peak year for solar activity and auroras, but that has not been the case so far. While the Auroras forecast at UAF has been for active Auroras every now and then, this year i have spent quite a lot of hours waiting for them to show, but have not been successful, at least around Fairbanks.

Earlier this week there was a scientific report about the sun and how calm it is this year. There is a lack of solar activity, and according to the article the scientific community is baffled since solar activity was supposed to be the best this year.

Now, for the past three years we have had a lot of Auroras activity in Fairbanks, but not this year:

[Moose Whisperer]

Originally Posted by ShouldIMoveOrStayPut...?

I have also heard it stated that you should go when you are able to spend the most time, somewhat regardless of predictions as they are not always accurate, are just a prediction after all and subject to a number of variables. Being able to spend a week or two off the predicted peak would be better than three to four days at a predicted peak

^This

Predicting the Aurora is like predicting the weather. Whenever a solar event happens, you may get a couple of days advance notice before it hits the Earth. So unless you have a Gulfstream on standby to fly you up at a moment's notice, your next best bet is to stay for as long a chunk of time as you can manage to increase your odds of seeing something.

Also, this solar maximum is turing out to be just like the winter up here this season - a big bust. There is now a theory that we may actually be seeing a double peak in the cycle this time, with the second peak due later in 2015.

Solar Cycle Update: Twin Peaks? - NASA Science

As for long term lodging, while I don't know for sure, I do know that many people from work stay at Sophie Station in Fairbanks when assigned up there for extended periods. Maybe they have some kind of similar rates available to the general public.

Fairbanks Extended Stay Accommodations | Fountainhead Hotels, Alaska

[brokencrayola]

Amazing photo Ray, I sure would love to see that one day.

[cjs123]

Agree with staying as long as possible to increase your odds. Timing is everything and if you have to book far in advance (which I do), you just have to pick a range of dates and hope for the best.

I've visited Fairbanks 3/2011 (10 nights), 2/2012 (7 nights) and 1/2013 (14 nights), and have been fortunate enough to see the lights each trip.

I stay at Aurora Borealis Lodge, 20 miles north of Fairbanks on Cleary Summit. They have a lot of reviews on TripAdvisor dot com (so does Chena Hot Springs). ABL books up well in advance; they are already booking for 2014, but they could have cancellations so it would be worth giving them a call if you're interested in staying there.

As far as hotels in town, I've stayed briefly at Pike's Waterfront Lodge and the Hampton Inn--both were fine, and you could drive from either one to outlying areas for Aurora viewing (not sure about long-term rates).

Good luck!

[ShouldIMoveOrStayPut...?]

Thank you everyone for the prompt responses and advice, looks like the general consensus is to go when you have the most time to be there.

That is an amazing photo Ray, a picture truly is worth a thousand words, and thanks for the feedback of your experiences measuring past years to present. Thank you for the links and lodging information and advice Moose Whisperer and cjs123, and glad to hear you had viewings on all your past trips cjs, I'm sure your extended stays played an important role.

That "Double Peak" graph just goes to show you can't put too much stock in predictions.

Will look into all lodging recommendations, Aurora Borealis Lodge sounds great but as stated booking may be tight.

Well at least the pressure is off to get up there last minute this month.

Please post any additional thoughts or information any of you may have regarding the Aurora, the whole aspect of Aurora predicting with it's blend of being part science, part art, and a dose of luck is nothing short of fascinating, as is the Aurora itself.

[RayinAK]

Last night about 3:00 AM I saw some Auroras activity. But again, nothing like the Auroras we had last year about this time of the season.

[ShouldIMoveOrStayPut...?]

Originally Posted by RayinAK

Last night about 3:00 AM I saw some Auroras activity. But again, nothing like the Auroras we had last year about this time of the season.

Thanks Ray for the update, is late night the best time to view them? I know some lodges have a "Wake Up" call service if there is activity. Aurora Borealis Lodge looks very well placed on Cleary Summit, but Cj was right, practically booked solid for next year.


The predicting sites are fascinating, corresponding wave graphs with the circular ring graphs from the Geophysical Institute at U of U Fairbanks is great stuff. But of course it does not always correspond with what is happening with first hand information from locals.

I suppose Auroras can happen anyhere at any time within the band of the ring graph, but you would simply have to be in the right spot at the right time, correct? Would someone in Fairbanks be able to see an Aurora happening in Fort Yukon? What is the mileage and range of viewing?

[RayinAK]

Just after sunset, or when it gets dark, is the best time to view the Auroras. Something that some of us do is as follows: watch the Auroras forecast at UAF (search "auroras forecast, UAF"). Once there choose the map of Alaska, and look at the forecast for that day, and every hour look at the short term forecast. If the short term forecast indicates that the Auroras will be active in the following hour, I have a few minutes to get to the place where I am taking photos from.

People in Fairbanks would only see the Auroras displays taking place over Fairbanks and vicinity. Fort Yukon is a little far from here.

Last night around 2:00 AM I saw some Auroras when I looked out the window, but was too sleepy to go out there. Tonight and tomorrow night the Auroras forecast looks good:
http://www.gi.alaska.edu/AuroraForecast

If I see a number 4 or 5+ on the forecast, more than likely I am out there waiting for them to appear. However, to prepare for watching the Auroras requires keeping an eye on the weather forecast. If it's cloudy, like it often happens, it makes no sense to be outdoors freezing

[Moose Whisperer]

Short term forecast is about a 5 right now. So we'll see what tonight brings.