Is Tennessee about to get too crowded? (Knoxville, Oak Ridge: for sale, real estate)

[raffydogg]

I'm originally from NC, but I lived for several years in Knoxville.
I moved to Calif for 4 years, Now My family is moving just outside of Knoxville in Oak Ridge and I have no house to sell.

Anyways, I've read so many posts about people hating their states (NY, CA, FL, Etc) They are selling their overpriced houses for 500k and up and they're moving to TN to buy a house straight out for cash.

That has to have an negative effect on the native population.
I know of alot of folks that live and work in TN and can't buy a house.
But folks move here and snatch up good houses for cash.

I don't mean to be that negative, but at what point does TN start to become the NY, CA and Fl? Overcrowded, Crime Ridden , Overpriced?

[nitneylion]

If people are only moving to Tenn because of housing prices, they are making a big mistake. People with attitudes will not be happy and will move. If you think people from NY and Ca are going to take over Tenn and change it you are incorrect.

[sliverbox]

I don't think Californians and New Yorkers are flooding TN ( yet) because they tend to like areas that most match their former areas. They also tend to choose areas that at least to them appear to be similar in political leaning. If you look at the top favorite states that attract Californians, they are: Arizona, Texas, ( Austin and Dallas in particular), Washington, and Oregon. In fact my neighbor is from Oregon and says that when she goes to visit her parents, she gets a lot of nasty looks from people when they see her license plate. In states like WA and OR, prices of homes have almost gotten as high as those in CA. So in the states touching CA, the overflow of CA residents has caused some damage to their affordability.

The general attitude I get from people here is that TN is too "Red" for their tastes. I'm not about to correct them either. If people from CA want to think that TN is full of barefoot hillbillies... let em'. On the other hand, it does seem likee NC has become the new hip place to move for Californians.

In NY, it seems that the next best thing for them are large cities like Philadelphia and Chicago.

My way of thinking about this is that sooner or later, the economies in states like CA are going to go into a recession either from the fact that too much of their industry was tied to Real estate or by the sheer volume of skilled workers leaving, hence dropping demand for housing in CA, then ultimately in other states.

many people up north seem to be counting in selling their homes and moving here with cash in hand. But if you look at their markets, states like MI, IN, IL, MA, and parts of NY, their real estate is TANKING. Many will not be able to sell for anywhere near to what they think they can get if at all, especially not when everyone and their mother puts their home up for sale this spring and summer. The inventory will be way more than last year. If they can't sell, then they won't come.
Anyhow, this whole "reverse dustbowl" is fascinating nonetheless.

[LauraC]

Originally Posted by sliverbox

I don't think Californians and New Yorkers are flooding TN ( yet) because they tend to like areas that most match their former areas. They also tend to choose areas that at least to them appear to be similar in political leaning. If you look at the top favorite states that attract Californians, they are: Arizona, Texas, ( Austin and Dallas in particular), Washington, and Oregon. .

TN isn't getting even small volumes of New Yorkers (or anyone else from the northeast) directly according to migration patterns but I do believe Tennessee is getting them indirectly by way of Florida, just like what happened in NC. That is, people who moved from the northeast to Florida are now moving again, from Florida to TN. In East Tennessee, Floridians are settling in big numbers in Sevier, Blount and Knox Counties according to migration patterns. Watch the local elections in those counties to see if those people are changing those 3 counties. Watch the local news stories for evidence of a culture clash. Watch the taxes, too.

[daniellefort]

that's true. we're called halfbackers. but you know what's funny, everyday in our paper, there are real estate listings for land and even cabins in TN or NC printed in there by the realtors from those areas so it's not only us moving there but the realtors are trying to get us there as well by advertising what we would consider a great buy.

[LauraC]

Originally Posted by daniellefort

that's true. we're called halfbackers. but you know what's funny, everyday in our paper, there are real estate listings for land and even cabins in TN or NC printed in there by the realtors from those areas so it's not only us moving there but the realtors are trying to get us there as well by advertising what we would consider a great buy.

Well, we know about those people (real estate people/developers). They're the same people that called you to Florida and created the situation down there that everyone is now running away from.

[daniellefort]

Originally Posted by LauraC

Well, we know about those people (real estate people/developers). They're the same people that called you to Florida and created the situation down there that everyone is now running away from.

That's probably true but they didn't make me come to FL. I came here on my own when i was 18 and didn't have a clue about housing and things like that. Heck I just up and left N.H. 13 years ago never stepping foot in the state of FL before but i still like it here.

[sliverbox]

I've seen real estate ads in CA for places as far away as NC. I think there was a hope that speculators and investors would flood the markets in TN, NC, GA, TX etc and hence drive up the prices just like they did in CA, NY, MA etc etc. But they acted too late and TN basically escaped the bubble. I do think there will be some residual migration from states like Florida until their prices start to level off and drop. If you look at reports coming out of florida, they are losing enormous amount of value for 2 reasons: A: Too many investors caused prices to spike beyond economic reasoning. B: hurricane insurance is now staggering, turning a formerly 500k home into something nobody wants. As soon as the results of these events becomes more firmly cemented, I'd say you can count the migration from Florida to fizzle.

[hiknapster]

Originally Posted by sliverbox

I've seen real estate ads in CA for places as far away as NC. I think there was a hope that speculators and investors would flood the markets in TN, NC, GA, TX etc and hence drive up the prices just like they did in CA, NY, MA etc etc. But they acted too late and TN basically escaped the bubble. I do think there will be some residual migration from states like Florida until their prices start to level off and drop. If you look at reports coming out of florida, they are losing enormous amount of value for 2 reasons: A: Too many investors caused prices to spike beyond economic reasoning. B: hurricane insurance is now staggering, turning a formerly 500k home into something nobody wants. As soon as the results of these events becomes more firmly cemented, I'd say you can count the migration from Florida to fizzle.

There is a huge flaw in this reasoning. You are assuming that the HOIs are going to go down. They are not.

All those people are REALLY ticked off about that insurance bill. I fail to understand why. Do they not understand that Florida is hurricane central?

In southwest Florida, prices spiked AFTER Hurricane Charley came through. Do these people watch the national news, with the pictures of roofs ripped off, cars overturned and the post office and schools obliterated and say, "Heather, pack up the kids, we're moving to Cape Coral, Florida"?

That's what really irritates me, the people that just don't want to pay the insurance premiums. Of course, they are through the roof! What did they expect?

I'm afraid that they are going to get here and start whining because prices are cheaper but they don't actually want to LIVE here unless they can change it to their liking.

[LauraC]

Originally Posted by sliverbox

I've seen real estate ads in CA for places as far away as NC. I think there was a hope that speculators and investors would flood the markets in TN, NC, GA, TX etc and hence drive up the prices just like they did in CA, NY, MA etc etc. But they acted too late and TN basically escaped the bubble. I do think there will be some residual migration from states like Florida until their prices start to level off and drop. If you look at reports coming out of florida, they are losing enormous amount of value for 2 reasons: A: Too many investors caused prices to spike beyond economic reasoning. B: hurricane insurance is now staggering, turning a formerly 500k home into something nobody wants. As soon as the results of these events becomes more firmly cemented, I'd say you can count the migration from Florida to fizzle.

I'm sure market research tells businesses where to target their advertising. I keep reading about all of these Floridians that see Eric Estrada hawking Tellico Village, I think. I have never seen Eric Estrada in any ad/commercial. I don't even know where Tellico Village is located in TN. Obviously, I'm not Tellico Village material, whatever that is. The ad I keep seeing on TV (in my part of MD) is The Villages in Florida. I think I could sing the theme song I see it so much, so you have to wonder. Are there a lot of Floridians moving to Sevier County and a lot of Michigan people moving to Cumberland County, for example, because those are the best places to be for them or because someone targeted them for those respective areas of Tennessee and they were sold. Are there a lot of people from my area of Maryland in The Villages in Florida? I know The Villages ad doesn't say "a tornado just blew through here" but I'm curious if the Estrada advertising plays up the shortcomings of Florida (versus TN) and who else (other states) is seeing those ads.

You know, why didn't Floridians go to Loudon County but Michiganers did?