Intel picks Ohio for semiconductor project (Columbus, Oregon: cost of, design, estimate)

[bellafinzi]

Originally Posted by Wile E. Coyote

I do think young and current employees will consider a move to Ohio (they obviously cannot staff with only new people). Ohio might be a very good place to ride out Climate Change (if you believe in that sort of thing)... Real Estate prices are freakishly unaffordable in Silicon Valley, very unaffordable in the Hillsboro area, and I'm not sure about Arizona (but, it's likely similar to Hillsboro)...

It will be an interesting story to follow as it develops

Columbus is a good place to ride out climate change, natural disasters and any potential major earth changes like rising sea levels.

I did a little research and found the safest places are mostly in parts of Ohio, Wisconsin, Vermont, Upstate NY and Michigan.

[Wile E. Coyote]

Originally Posted by bellafinzi

Columbus is a good place to ride out climate change, natural disasters and any potential major earth changes like rising sea levels.

I did a little research and found the safest places are mostly in parts of Ohio, Wisconsin, Vermont, Upstate NY and Michigan.

Yes, that's what I read too. I'm thinking of retiring in one of those areas. I'm not in a bad location in the Pacific Northwest; but, it has gotten so overwhelmingly expensive here. That manufacturing needs water.

[216facts]

https://www.levernews.com/intels-mul...it-and-switch/

Chip happens. On the fence on this. I am generally against all the massive corporate welfare but cutting edge process nodes for semi mfg is a national security issue.

[SlideRules99]

Intel Q4’22 fiscal results were a complete disaster. Q1’23 forecasts slashed.

<Intel Corp. is forecasting one of the worst quarters in its history, touching off a broader selloff of chips companies as a slowdown in personal-computer sales ravages the industry.>

<First-quarter sales will be $10.5 billion to $11.5 billion, the chipmaker said. That compares with an average Wall Street estimate of $14 billion. Intel expects to lose 15 cents in the quarter, excluding some items. Analysts had projected a profit of 25 cents.>

Q4 PC Client revenue down 35% YoY.
Q4 Data Center revenue down 41% YoY

Intel continues to hemorrhage market share to AMD, and fall further behind on manufacturing technology vs. TSMC. The issues run deeper than the typical market cycle ups-and-downs.

If this bloodbath continues throughout 2023, IMO, Intel will need to revisit its ambitious capital spending plans, including Fab build-outs. I hope I’m wrong.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/intel...212852310.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/bf792052...-earnings.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/compa...ycsrp_catchall

[ohioaninsc]

Originally Posted by SlideRules99

Intel Q4’22 fiscal results were a complete disaster. Q1’23 forecasts slashed.

<Intel Corp. is forecasting one of the worst quarters in its history, touching off a broader selloff of chips companies as a slowdown in personal-computer sales ravages the industry.>

<First-quarter sales will be $10.5 billion to $11.5 billion, the chipmaker said. That compares with an average Wall Street estimate of $14 billion. Intel expects to lose 15 cents in the quarter, excluding some items. Analysts had projected a profit of 25 cents.>

Q4 PC Client revenue down 35% YoY.
Q4 Data Center revenue down 41% YoY

Intel continues to hemorrhage market share to AMD, and fall further behind on manufacturing technology vs. TSMC. The issues run deeper than the typical market cycle ups-and-downs.

If this bloodbath continues throughout 2023, IMO, Intel will need to revisit its ambitious capital spending plans, including Fab build-outs. I hope I’m wrong.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/intel...212852310.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/bf792052...-earnings.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/compa...ycsrp_catchall

The jobs are more important than investor profits...hopefully they won't let this derail them

[on3]

Fashion designers vs intel chip designers. Town isn't big enough for the both of them. There's going to be some new players for sure. Things could get spicy! Could make for some interesting PTA meetings and board meetings in New Albany lol.

We know who will win the battle of the brains in such a face off. It's like when the starting QB realizes that he's about to be replaced and regulated to bench duty.

Get the popcorn ready and enjoy the show!

[216facts]

Encouraging that Intel has halted/paused: The Portland R&D building, the German fab, and the Israel fab expansion. Plus the layoffs. But no word on any impacts to the Ohio fabs. Both AMD and Intel have about the same market cap, so its not like Intel is going away. I do agree that AMD has some market advantage, and they got the better FPGA prize in Xilinx (Intel bought Altera). It is nice to see AMD have a technical upper hand, having played 2nd fiddle for so long to Intel.

[SlideRules99]

Originally Posted by 216facts

Encouraging that Intel has halted/paused: The Portland R&D building, the German fab, and the Israel fab expansion. Plus the layoffs. But no word on any impacts to the Ohio fabs. Both AMD and Intel have about the same market cap, so its not like Intel is going away. I do agree that AMD has some market advantage, and they got the better FPGA prize in Xilinx (Intel bought Altera). It is nice to see AMD have a technical upper hand, having played 2nd fiddle for so long to Intel.

Yeah, the frenetic cost-cutting has commenced.

In the face of deteriorating financial performance, Intel is stubbornly sticking to its generous shareholder dividend payouts…$6B last year alone. Analysts are putting increased scrutiny on this practice, as those expenses (generally speaking) pull from the same cash pot required to fund all their strategic investments, including the OH fabs. Their CEO admits as much here.

<<“We are committed to the dividend and to a very healthy and competitive dividend," Gelsinger said. "We're also making big long-term strategic investments, so we're putting all of that together and looking very carefully at the capital allocation priorities for the company overall, even as we remain committed to rewarding our shareholders with the dividend.">>

https://news.yahoo.com/intel-ceo-we-...200351998.html

Frankly, if this carnage continues into the back half of 2023, IMO it would be a stretch to keep the OH Fab build-out schedules intact. Their current factories are under loaded, PC/Server demand has plummeted, they are forecasting a loss for Q1 ‘23, and have given up on any attempt at forecasting revenue for the full year.

It takes an iron stomach to look at that mess and decide to keep building expensive new factories and adding production capacity regardless. I give them credit if they don’t blink.

[216facts]

Those OH fabs are TBD for sure. I think there are some global conditions that will keep them on track:
* Insecurity at competing places to build fabs, such as Taiwan, Germany, and even Europe in general.
* China will continue to decrease as a global provider of contract manufacturing and low to mid end integrated circuits. This is due to demographics, poor leadership, the US & Europe cutting them off from high technology, and their reliance on imports to sustain their food supply.
* The US Govt's desire to on-shore mid to high end chip fabrication. This along with the supply chain problems presented by the two points above, should allow significant investment with revenue in US fabs.

[SlideRules99]

Originally Posted by 216facts

Those OH fabs are TBD for sure. I think there are some global conditions that will keep them on track:
* Insecurity at competing places to build fabs, such as Taiwan, Germany, and even Europe in general.
* China will continue to decrease as a global provider of contract manufacturing and low to mid end integrated circuits. This is due to demographics, poor leadership, the US & Europe cutting them off from high technology, and their reliance on imports to sustain their food supply.
* The US Govt's desire to on-shore mid to high end chip fabrication. This along with the supply chain problems presented by the two points above, should allow significant investment with revenue in US fabs.

This is all true. But global chip demand is slackening, and Intel’s existing factories are under-utilized. It is very expensive to sustain factory capacity that is not being used, let alone build new fabs when demand is uncertain.

They will not add new factories unless they are confident those fabs will be loaded/utilized. It’s classic supply/demand management.

What’s working in Ohio’s favor is that there is ample time for the market to recover, and for new foundry business to be won, before the fabs are scheduled to come on-line.

Like I said, if Intel doesn’t blink, I’ll give them a ton of credit.