When will the Great Climate Migration to Ohio begin in full force? (Toronto: how much, home)

[Snowpacked]

This sums it up.

“People not only don't know what's happening to them, they don't even know that they don't know.”

― Noam Chomsky

[sheena12]

Originally Posted by Panther79

Wow, this thread is a huge joke! It was 34 degrees with a wind chill of 24 yesterday on March 16th! I’d love to know where the “global warming “ is? Lol

You are confusing "weather" and "climate".

[Huntsville_secede]

Originally Posted by sheena12

You are confusing "weather" and "climate".

At least there's no doubt who he voted for. His leader has taught him well.

[katharsis]

This is particularly interesting to me because we decided to move to northeastern Wisconsin instead of New Hampshire for our retirement, mainly because it was less expensive. However, since purchasing our lot (we will have our home built next year), I have been doing even more research, and I was surprised to discover that northeastern Wisconsin is one of the safest places of the U.S. to live, at least regarding natural disasters, plus the ocean rise (if/when it happens) won't affect that area. I agree that some of the projections regarding ocean rise and its effects are alarming.

https://web.archive.org/web/20140717...l-disaster-map

And here is a map that shows current population density.

http://www.crisishq.com/files/2010_P...ted_States.pdf

[WRnative]

See the last paragraphs of this story.

https://news.yahoo.com/its-over-miam...160000886.html

What especially disturbs me about the above article is that Harold Wanless, chairman of the geological sciences department at the Univ. of Miami, has identified 21 negative feedback loops. I've seen substantial discussions of only two very nasty ones -- thawing frozen methane deposits and the declining reflectivity of the planet as snow cover disappears. A third negative feedback loop is carbon dioxide releases as thawed permafrost decays, but I haven't seen much discussion of that one, although I vaguely remember a statement that the resulting carbon dioxide releases to the atmosphere could rival those from fossil fuel burning.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_methane_emissions

If we had a government that respected scientists, all 21 of these feedbacks loops would be identified and quantified.

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2785/u...ic-permafrost/

[WRnative]

Will continued atmospheric warming and accelerating sea level rise, or a catastrophic event such as a rapidly intensified hurricane striking a major coastal population center, result in net outward migration from coastal areas becoming the norm?

https://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news...e-110693957661

[jbcmh81]

Originally Posted by WRnative

Will continued atmospheric warming and accelerating sea level rise, or a catastrophic event such as a rapidly intensified hurricane striking a major coastal population center, result in net outward migration from coastal areas becoming the norm?

https://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news...e-110693957661

First, I'd like to believe that humanity will get serious about this problem and work to solve it or mitigate it enough to the point where such mass migrations don't have to happen. But then I remember I'm a realist and I have to admit I doubt we have it in us. I hope I'm wrong.

Second, I'd like to believe people would be smart enough and believe in their own self-preservation enough to not stay in more dangerous places. Then I remember the Covid mask response and know you can't count on that, either.

So really, I don't think such a migration is going to happen, not at least until the problem is too severe to matter.

[on3]

Snow in ohio in april sucks! At least is was only for a day.

[WRnative]

Read this USA Today story on Yahoo! yesterday:

<<Nearly half (49%) of respondents in a recent survey said they planned to move in the next year, blaming extreme temperatures, and the increasing frequency or intensity of natural disasters for a role in their decision to relocate, according to the survey, commissioned earlier this year by real estate website Redfin. The survey involved 2,000 U.S. residents contacted from Feb. 25, 2021, to March 1, 2021.>>

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/t...040103089.html

If the survey is accurate, the pump is being primed for a substantial climate change migration even in this decade.

Until reading the article, I hadn't heard about this Redfin survey. Here's another interesting revelation from the Redfin survey:

<<SEATTLE, April 14, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- (NASDAQ: RDFN) — One in five Americans (21%) believes the increasing frequency or intensity of natural disasters, extreme temperatures and/or rising sea levels are hurting home values in their area, according to a new survey featured in a report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. A comparable share—23%—expect one or more of these factors to hurt local housing values in the next five years, and 12% think values will be negatively impacted in the next five to 10 years. Just over a third (35%) of Americans believe these factors will never diminish home values where they live....

"Climate change is posing an increasingly large risk to homeowners. As storms, wildfires and rising sea levels render more areas undesirable in the coming years, housing values in those areas will decline. This means a growing number of homeowners will see a major source of wealth—their home equity—wiped away," said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. "We may also see folks in at-risk areas choose to rent instead of own to avoid getting stuck with devalued properties.">>

https://press.redfin.com/news-releas...e-hurting-home

The first paragraph from the USA Today article may be erroneous. The Redfin survey may not have said that 49 percent of all Americans plan a move based on climate change factors, but instead:

<< About half of respondents who plan to move in the next year said extreme temperatures and/or the increasing frequency or intensity of natural disasters played a role in their decision to relocate. More than a third (36%) said rising sea levels were a factor.>>

https://www.redfin.com/news/climate-...ration-survey/

This seems much more logical, but still surprisingly significant.

Another significant finding of the Redfin survey:

<<Roughly 75% of Americans Would Be Hesitant to Buy a Home In an Area With Climate Risk

The previous section of this report only includes responses from participants who indicated that they plan to relocate in the next year, but we also wanted to hear from people who aren’t currently planning a move, so we asked all 2,000 participants how climate risks in a given area would affect their perspective on buying a home there.

Nearly 80% of respondents said that increasing frequency or intensity of natural disasters in an area would make them hesitant to buy a home there. A slightly lower share—about three-quarters—would be hesitant to buy a home in a place with extreme temperatures and/or rising sea levels.>>

The USA Today article said that Redfin will add more climate change insights to its website, beginning Aug. 3.

<<Based on that insight, Redfin will announce on Aug. 3 that it is adding local climate risk data to its site, the company told USA TODAY exclusively.

Redfin will integrate data from ClimateCheck, a startup that lets people access climate data using any address in the U.S. Homebuyers who want to understand the risk of fire, heat, drought and storms will be able to see a rating from 0-100 associated with the county, city, zip code and neighborhood of the home they're considering. On the scale, 0 indicates very low risk and 100 indicates very high risk of climate-related hazards for the home in question compared with others in the U.S. by the year 2050, a period within the lifespan of a 30-year mortgage signed today.

Previously, the site displayed only flood risk data.>>

Checking out a random house for sale in Shaker Heights, the ClimateCheck data isn't yet integrated into the Redfin website, even though today is Aug. 3.

https://www.redfin.com/OH/Shaker-Hei.../home/66453297

I also couldn't get the climatecheck.com website to provide an assessment for that address.

https://climatecheck.com/

Climate change investment expert Spencer Glendon is preparing a similar website to climatecheck called "Probably Futures." Glendon provides fascinating quarterly updates on the project. I wish our politicians understood climate change, especially the role of methane, as well as Glendon.

https://mailchi.mp/probablefutures/j...tice-greetings

A few years ago, Glendon issued a warning to Floridians. His doomsday scenario could play out during any hurricane season.

https://www.wlrn.org/show/the-florid...impacts-worsen

https://www.woodwellclimate.org/staff/spencer-glendon/

[Tall Traveler]

My best guess is between 20,000 and 30,000 years from now.