Minnesota's first infected Coronasvirus person. (Virginia, Dakota: unemployed, live in, restaurant)

[Cruz Azul Guy]

Originally Posted by Tyryztoll

I see the drama schools are still open and operating. Hey, Faust - 6 feet apart from the devil there, Mister!

This coming from the guy who claims to work in the medical field. You should understand the gravity of the situation and importance of taking safety precautions better than most of us.

[Cruz Azul Guy]

Originally Posted by Glenfield

I saw Theo Keith of Fox9 post this earlier:


This kind of discrepancy makes people question whether the decisions to close down businesses are really supported by good information. The Minnesota model has consistently shown a more dire situation than the more commonly used University of Washington model, and both assumed much lower compliance with social distancing than we are actually experiencing.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ng-projections

My understanding is that the models are changing to account for the success that social distancing has had in slowing the spread of the virus.

[Tyryztoll]

Originally Posted by Cruz Azul Guy

This coming from the guy who claims to work in the medical field. You should understand the gravity of the situation and importance of taking safety precautions better than most of us.

I understand it perfectly because I'm living it. I'm at work right here and right now. There's no one here. There is no "surge" of Covid patients. We haven't done squat for weeks and are hemorrhaging revenue due to having to close, postpone, reschedule and cancel everything. People aren't coming to the ER, not even the frequent flyers. There's nothing to do. I guess we'll see how long this goes and if this place survives. Already had our hours cut. All because people have been scared *%!#less by the media and certain government "officials" into thinking a rogue virus that most (yes, MOST - even the elderly!) people recover from quickly is the 2nd coming of the black plague. I have complied with the stay at home orders and social distancing recommendations - donned all the PPE here at work (of course) but you cannot shut down society indefinitely over something like this. It would be one thing if people were dropping dead left and right once they contract the virus, but they aren't - despite what so many are being led to believe through the constant big, scary, bold headlines and incessant breaking news briefs on the ten thousand channels seeking captivating filler. The media is completely out of control and the governors office has gone from a couple weeks of prudent caution to a spiraling control and fear campaign - based on shifting "models" that no one ever seems to actually see - that will destroy us all if it doesn't end soon. There is no plague, people! The Covid keyboard warriors can have their field day telling us all what we should be doing with our lives. They think this is their Woodstock or something! You know how they get when they think they have a cause to ram down everyones throat. Well, bad news - people are beginning to see this for what it really is and they are not dumb enough to lose everything over it just because the rest of you feel like embarking on an eternal freak out.

[Glenfield]

Originally Posted by Cruz Azul Guy

My understanding is that the models are changing to account for the success that social distancing has had in slowing the spread of the virus.

No one understand the model being used in Minnesota because the details have not been made public. Reporters who are trying to reconcile the UM and UW figures have been unable to get data from the state. All we are given are generalizations like this or oh they cover different times periods. Why the need for secrecy?

[Kavalier]

Originally Posted by Tyryztoll

I understand it perfectly because I'm living it. I'm at work right here and right now. There's no one here. There is no "surge" of Covid patients. We haven't done squat for weeks and are hemorrhaging revenue due to having to close, postpone, reschedule and cancel everything. People aren't coming to the ER, not even the frequent flyers. There's nothing to do. I guess we'll see how long this goes and if this place survives. Already had our hours cut. All because people have been scared *%!#less by the media and certain government "officials" into thinking a rogue virus that most (yes, MOST - even the elderly!) people recover from quickly is the 2nd coming of the black plague. I have complied with the stay at home orders and social distancing recommendations - donned all the PPE here at work (of course) but you cannot shut down society indefinitely over something like this. It would be one thing if people were dropping dead left and right once they contract the virus, but they aren't - despite what so many are being led to believe through the constant big, scary, bold headlines and incessant breaking news briefs on the ten thousand channels seeking captivating filler. The media is completely out of control and the governors office has gone from a couple weeks of prudent caution to a spiraling control and fear campaign - based on shifting "models" that no one ever seems to actually see - that will destroy us all if it doesn't end soon. There is no plague, people! The Covid keyboard warriors can have their field day telling us all what we should be doing with our lives. They think this is their Woodstock or something! Never seen anything like it.

Personally I am starting to think it was all blown far more out of proportion than it actually is. Wouldn't surprise me.

[Cruz Azul Guy]

Originally Posted by Tyryztoll

I understand it perfectly because I'm living it. I'm at work right here and right now. There's no one here. There is no "surge" of Covid patients. We haven't done squat for weeks and are hemorrhaging revenue due to having to close, postpone, reschedule and cancel everything. People aren't coming to the ER, not even the frequent flyers. There's nothing to do. I guess we'll see how long this goes and if this place survives. Already had our hours cut. All because people have been scared *%!#less by the media and certain government "officials" into thinking a rogue virus that most (yes, MOST - even the elderly!) people recover from quickly is the 2nd coming of the black plague. I have complied with the stay at home orders and social distancing recommendations - donned all the PPE here at work (of course) but you cannot shut down society indefinitely over something like this. It would be one thing if people were dropping dead left and right once they contract the virus, but they aren't - despite what so many are being led to believe through the constant big, scary, bold headlines and incessant breaking news briefs on the ten thousand channels seeking captivating filler. The media is completely out of control and the governors office has gone from a couple weeks of prudent caution to a spiraling control and fear campaign - based on shifting "models" that no one ever seems to actually see - that will destroy us all if it doesn't end soon. There is no plague, people! The Covid keyboard warriors can have their field day telling us all what we should be doing with our lives. They think this is their Woodstock or something! You know how they get when they think they have a cause to ram down everyones throat. Well, bad news - people are beginning to see this for what it really is and they are not dumb enough to lose everything over it just because the rest of you feel like embarking on an eternal freak out.

Yeah, it is a wonder then why a consensus of world leaders and leading health experts do not agree with you. Even with all measures taken there have been 100,000 reported deaths worldwide (and probably alot more unreported). Minnesota has the lowest transmission rate of any of the US states last I checked and that is probably thanks to the shutdown and statewide compliance with social distancing recommendations.

If you attempted to make this argument in NYC for instance, where bodies continue to pile up as we speak, I’m not sure it would go over so well.

[Ghengis]

Originally Posted by Cruz Azul Guy

Yeah, it is a wonder then why a consensus of world leaders and leading health experts do not agree with you. Even with all measures taken there have been 100,000 reported deaths worldwide (and probably alot more unreported). Minnesota has the lowest transmission rate of any of the US states last I checked and that is probably thanks to the shutdown and statewide compliance with social distancing recommendations.

If you attempted to make this argument in NYC for instance, where bodies continue to pile up as we speak, I’m not sure it would go over so well.

a Michigander I believe, considering their current status, a not so surprising attitude.

[Kavalier]

Originally Posted by Glenfield

No one understand the model being used in Minnesota because the details have not been made public. Reporters who are trying to reconcile the UM and UW figures have been unable to get data from the state. All we are given are generalizations like this or oh they cover different times periods. Why the need for secrecy?

What do you mean?

[Glenfield]

Originally Posted by Kavalier

What do you mean?

Reporters have been asking for details on the Minnesota model regarding the timing of the number of deaths projected but the state has not agreed to release this level of detail. This makes it impossible to compare the MN model to the UW model used by the Federal government in order to try to understand the differences.

https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/stat...673078805?s=21

[MidwestRedux]

Originally Posted by Cruz Azul Guy

Yeah, it is a wonder then why a consensus of world leaders and leading health experts do not agree with you. Even with all measures taken there have been 100,000 reported deaths worldwide (and probably alot more unreported). Minnesota has the lowest transmission rate of any of the US states last I checked and that is probably thanks to the shutdown and statewide compliance with social distancing recommendations.

If you attempted to make this argument in NYC for instance, where bodies continue to pile up as we speak, I’m not sure it would go over so well.

It is a mistake to let this become a binary/false choice discussion between:

A: If you get within 5 feet of someone, you are killing people

B. This all a scam, hospitals are empty no one is at risk.

As is often the case, there is an emerging truth in the middle. This virus is dangerous. People are dying and many more will die. I would estimate 50,000-150,000 in the US and millions around the world.

Our governor and many others got way ahead of themselves touting models built on broken data. Garbage in, garbage out. Most of the initial models were based on data from Wuhan provided by or filtered through the Chinese government.

Those models all assumed that there was a Case Fatality Rate of about 2.2%. The actual number, based on a much broader sampling of data is going to fall between .25% and .4%. Not only is the virus not as deadly as originally believe, but the fatality numbers were used to project the medical resources required. They assumed that something like about there would be about one death for every seven hospitalizations. This ratio might be correct, but if it is based on an inflated CFR, the end result is very wrong. This is why our governor said 15% of people who get the virus end up hospitalized. The real number will be closer to 2%.

As we saw, this put quite of strain on New York City's hospitals because of the surge of patients. However, despite the media's urge to make us believe it was going to happen, no one died on the street because the hospitals were full.

Social Distancing has done the job we were told it was supposed to do. It bought some time to ramp up supplies so that our medical system wouldn't be overwhelmed. Given that the peak demand was always going to be much lower than originally projected, we are now well past the point of diminishing returns.

Unless a miracle shows up really soon, we will either have to stay on lock down for another year or so waiting for a vaccine. Or, we will have to open society back up. From a COVID-19 mortality perspective,there is no reason to believe that waiting another month will make much or any difference. However, waiting another month or even another week will result in thousands of excess deaths due to the unintended consequences of shutting down that our leaders never considered.