Billionaire Ken Griffin says Miami could unseat New York as the world's financial center (Hialeah: condo, loan)

[blueskies2023]

Originally Posted by gixxer1000

To be clear, I'm aligned with Ken Griffin on this one and were not talking about soon:



The CTX view seems to be that Miami is riding a boom which will subside. So Miami gains on NY a little bit, then the boom stops and both go back to status quo. The Ken Griffin view is that the status quo has changed and Miami is better suited for this landscape.

Again, what advantage does NY have that can't be built anywhere else?

At the most basic, walkability. Not having to OWN a car. Huge, no? Any and all can work, live in NYC car free and do anything without a car.

[Corrie22]

Originally Posted by DefiantNJ

Another big challenge is the lack of usable public transportation in Miami.

problem with that in Miami, people just don't want to use it

[blueskies2023]

Originally Posted by Corrie22

problem with that in Miami, people just don't want to use it

well it is pretty awful. buses rarely show up, trains dont or cant really go to where most of us need,,,,,, office? still would need an additional uber or drive. 99% of people office is not near the stop of the rail.

[silverct9a]

If you include the Metro area, which I think should be included due to Brightline access, West Palm Beach has picked up quite a few financial firms which makes the growth more impressive.

Originally Posted by elchevere

I don’t see Miami replacing Wall Street in my lifetime, if at all.

I would need to see Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, AMEX, New York Life, BlackRock, etc etc actually pick up and move their headquarters—not 25-50 people here, and I’d need to see U Miami and U Florida become a top 5 feeder to the big financial firms (which they are not) just as 3 in state NY schools still are to Wall Street—NYU, Columbia and Cornell.

That’s not to say Miami cannot continue to grow and carve out a greater solid niche for itself (think Atlanta v Hollywood or Austin v Silicon Valley) as other cities have done in finance (Chicago, SF, Charlotte), but it has a long ways to go to topple the big dog which, along with London, are the world’s financial epicenters. Citadel, Elliott Management and a few others were a nice win for Miami but that’s one small piece of a much larger pie.

[CXT2000]

Originally Posted by blueskies2023

Keeping prices in check???? wha? Miami is one of the most expensive places to live in the country!!!

Let alone having wages below national averages... of course someone from NYC with a NYC salary would move there. But locals? Absolutely screwed...

[wanderer34]

Originally Posted by DefiantNJ

I would also add that NYC is where NY Stock Exchange, NASDAQ, S&P, huge office of Federal Reserve Bank of NY will all have to move to Miami. Same is true for the large offices of all or most of the biggest of European and Asian banks, such as UBS, RBC, HSBC, Bank of China, Sumitomo Mitsui, Barclays and many others.

https://gfmag.com/sponsored-content/...in%20Aventura.

Miami has the largest number of international banks in the United States and the second largest financial bank only to NY. You're talking about moving the Federal Reserve Bank from NY to Miami, when I've made a thread in the past about it. A lot voters down my proposal to open up a Fed Bank in Miami, but now that you've brought up that topic again, I'll just post the link right here: https://www.city-data.com/forum/miam...n-federal.html

Back to the Fed Reserve: I still don't understand why Miami, which has the largest number of int'l banks HQed here and the second largest financial hub doesn't have it's own Fed Reserve, which can cover the entire state of FL, and maybe PR & VI, but since FL is rapidly growing by about a million people per year, it's exigent that Senators Rubio and Scott make it highly important for Miami to have it's own Fed Reserve simply because the country has drastically changed since the 1910's, when the first Fed Reserve banks were established.

If you're interested, you can write to Senators Rubio and Scott about the idea of establishing a Fed Reserve Bank in Miami, as I can see how a state which has the potential of holding up to 30+ million people can be subject to Atlanta, where the total population of GA is a little over 10 million. You're better off writing the Senators as well as your local congressman about such a plan.

Originally Posted by DefiantNJ

I agree 100%. And one of the biggest problems of the typical Republican city is insufficient infrastructure. The city is at the sea level and parts of it are exposed to open Atlantic ocean, not just to NY bay as in the case of NY. It is already suffering from periodic flooding and raising sea water levels. Another big challenge is the lack of usable public transportation in Miami. There are a few patchwork systems here and there but not enough to cover most of the city and suburbs. And all these bankers and financial types really hate sitting in bumper to bumper traffic... Republican government usually fail to grasp the importance of public transportation until traffic becomes real nightmare.

I'm assuming that a lot of the bankers will live at or close to Downtown Miami in places such as Coconut Grove and Edgewater in Miami and as far away as Coral Gables and Miami Beach, since those areas tend to hold a lot of rich and wealthy people. a lot of the outlying areas like Little Havana, Little Haiti, and Liberty City are the preserve of the middle to working class.

https://www.miamidade.gov/global/rel...66854898373927

https://www.miamidade.gov/global/tra...-corridor.page





You must not be familiar with the North Extension that Miami-Dade Transit has proposed which should be open by 2026, just in time for the 2026 World Cup. Rising sea levels are a problem for Miami, but it's also a problem for a lot of coastal cities as well. NY, especially Lower Manhattan and even parts of Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens, have been subject to some serious flooding as well.

Once Miami and Miami-Dade reaches critical mass, meaning very high density, than it's apparent that just building highways and expressways aren't enough to sustain Miami, as mass transit and commuter rail corridors throughout South FL are the vital way of ensuring that Miami and South FL has a very high mobility rate. And if FL, which has a GOP governor (DeSantis), and both the state House and the state Senate have GOP supermajorities, has built a HSR with the Brightline, is expanding the Tri-Rail along the FEC, and has panned the

[gixxer1000]

Originally Posted by blueskies2023

Keeping prices in check???? wha? Miami is one of the most expensive places to live in the country!!!

As it should be considering its one of the most desirable places to live in the country.



But relatively speaking to NY prices are generally 40% lower. As we get more dense that gap isn't likely to shrink much and may widen. The big reason for the exteme run in pricing in Miami was supply chain constraints on construction. I was working on several project at the time and while construction prices were going up, the bigger issue was you just couldn't get materials. This delayed a lot of projects and were still feeling the effects of this.

However the supply of units its finally starting to be delivered. That means that currently rental prices have not only moderated but have started to go down slightly in Miami, while they're still increasing in NY. And this doen't take into consideration what is built in Miami at regular price points is usually better, bigger, more amenities, more parking, etc.

https://www.zumper.com/blog/rental-price-data/

Scroll to the bottom and you can see rates for individual cities. First you'll note that the number #1 & #2 markets are NY and NJ which are essentially the same marked. Where as Miami is #5 and FTL is ranked 15 which is effectively our NJ. And FTL decreased 2 spots on the ranking due to falling prices.

Then on top of that look at wages. Miami is leading NY currently.



Many of the companies that I work with develop in both NY and Miami. Land cost and construction cost are much lower in Miami. SO going forward everything developed in NY on makes the difference more pronounced. And in fact the new development in Miami helps fund new infrastructure

https://therealdeal.com/magazine/nat...elopers-guide/

New York’s much higher costs come despite the lack of a requirement to pay impact fees. South Florida mandates that developers pay the fees, which are for the expansion of roads, water and sewer connections, schools and other infrastructure needed to support the new development.

So you have lower rental prices today, faster wage growth, you can build new rentals cheaper and fund the development of new infrastucture with those cheaper rentals and you have a secondary market like FTL with even lower prices.

[gixxer1000]

Originally Posted by blueskies2023

At the most basic, walkability. Not having to OWN a car. Huge, no? Any and all can work, live in NYC car free and do anything without a car.

This is more of an ideological argument. If you personally prefer a car free existence then good for you. But it is not the end all be all. The issue should be can people get from A to B efficiently.

I used to live in DC and got around eveywhere through public transporation. However doing things like getting groceries was a chore. I now enjoy living in the Roads where I can walk to Brickell for many of my entertainment needs but then can use a car to take care of other tasks.

As the cities grows and becomes more congested public transportation will become a larger part of the picture. And to be honest it isn't even that hard to do as the metrorail can server A LOT of people. Simply look at the metro rail map and pick out any stop outside of Brickell. Take the Coconut Grove station for example. If you draw half mile radius around the station that would give you 500 acres. All we have to do is upzone this area which is currently predominately single family homes. To put that in perspectrive you could build ALL of brickell in the space which and they would only be a 7-10 minute walk away from a metrorail station that they could then get to Brickell in 2 stops.

And this can be replicated at EVERY metrorail station. Meaning we could build a Brickell sizes worth of development 20 times over without even adding much to the existing metrorail.

This is already happening. Grove Central is about to open literally at the metrorail stop. You have 400 units along with 172k sqft of retail including a target, total wine, etc. Not to mention Grove Station Tower was previosly built next door.

So it doesn't take a stretch of the imagination to realize that in the coming years, you'll be able to rent at say the Coconut Grove metrorail and walk 5 min to take the metrorail to Brickell for work. You then have all the entertainment, shopping, grocery available in Brickell. Then another metrorail stop away you have Government Center that has the brighline station which has a food hall. And soon that will be a short walk away from the Worldcenter mall which will have tons of retail.

Then to the south you have Douglas station which is already building out at rapid pace. You have another retail center at Merrick park and Milams recently moved into this location. Then you go one most stop and you have UofM. So you can literally access the downtown core, multiple shopping destinations and the main college all on the existing infrastucture.

And better than NY you can still live in an apartment with a parking space so when you don't want to use public transportaion you're not forced to.

[gixxer1000]

Originally Posted by silverct9a

If you include the Metro area, which I think should be included due to Brightline access, West Palm Beach has picked up quite a few financial firms which makes the growth more impressive.

A lot of people are so fixated on Miami that they don't see the growth that is happening in the MSA. Boca and West Palm Beach are going to be great satalite locations.

And unlike working in NY and having to commute from NJ, these locations aren't as inferior. Boca and West Palm have access to the same beautiful ocean.

We are currently working with clients to bring an elite charter schools to palm beach. As more NY executives move to the region they want to make sure there are options for their kids. The synergy between these locations is going to help growth and provide a lot of options that a typical city wouln't have.

[Corrie22]

Originally Posted by gixxer1000

And to be honest it isn't even that hard to do as the metrorail can server A LOT of people. Simply look at the metro rail map and pick out any stop outside of Brickell.

problem is the target audience has to drive right under the turnpike or palmetto..on congested roads.... to get to the parking lot...park, walk, wait, take train, walk, etc

talking all those people into getting out of their AC'd cars and not hitting that entrance ramp....

the stations are not convenient for people coming up from the south...or out west....and that's where the new builds are