Billionaire Ken Griffin says Miami could unseat New York as the world's financial center (Jacksonville: rent, condos)

[elchevere]

I don’t see Miami replacing Wall Street in my lifetime, if at all.

I would need to see Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, AMEX, New York Life, BlackRock, etc etc actually pick up and move their headquarters—not 25-50 people here, and I’d need to see U Miami and U Florida become a top 5 feeder to the big financial firms (which they are not) just as 3 in state NY schools still are to Wall Street—NYU, Columbia and Cornell.

That’s not to say Miami cannot continue to grow and carve out a greater solid niche for itself (think Atlanta v Hollywood or Austin v Silicon Valley) as other cities have done in finance (Chicago, SF, Charlotte), but it has a long ways to go to topple the big dog which, along with London, are the world’s financial epicenters. Citadel, Elliott Management and a few others were a nice win for Miami but that’s one small piece of a much larger pie.

[gixxer1000]

Originally Posted by CXT2000

So you being up a good point about service cuts. The U.S has given cities so many powers for generating revenue, yet they hardly use it.

Migrant crisis is bad, and if Southern cities didn't send them to dem cities (and the U.S actually had a proper plan) then they wouldn't be in this situation. Maybe NY should send them to Miami/FL or Texas, since all the capital is going there now... right?

You don't seem to understand the process. They aren't forcing migrants on buses, they are giving them the option. The cities they are paying for buses to (NY, Chicago, DC) are sanctuary cities. The migrants are accepting bus rides to cities that are the most welcoming. NY has a "right to shelter" law which while sounds insane says everyone (regardless of wheter you are a resident or not) is entitled to shelter. NY is currently offereing migrants plane tickets out of NY. If NY wanted to, they could round up all the migrants and force them into the streets in conditions so terrible that they would accept a bus ride to a city that isn't willing to be as cruel. But politically they don't have the will to do it.

Originally Posted by CXT2000

Also no, Miami you cannot build endless towers... the infrastructure is hanging by a thread. Fresh water is at risk of being infiltrated by sewage and salt water, septic tanks are beyond capacity and Miami might have a **** problem soon. Everglades is close by, don't want to continue building over that.

FYI, I work in real estate development build said buildings. Your laypersons view of the situation sounds as someone extremely pessemistic. The exact same thing could be said of NY 100 years ago. The development of these buildings generates millions of dollars in impact fees to addres the burden of new developments. Could that money be mismaged? Sure. But again there is already a mechanism in place to handle the burden the development adds to the system.

Originally Posted by CXT2000

Miami, also compared to NYC, does not have the cultural or international gravitas, institutions, talent, education, etc... NYC is competing with cities all over the world, Miami only competes with a few cities in the U.S. The city is still used as a tax haven, where companies mainly relocate on paper to avoid taxes. There's a reason why all the new offices that "moved" there mainly have 20 people or less. Hell, the client dinner I had last night (in Brickell, btw) told me they do the same! They have a global HQ in Miami on paper, but head office is elsewhere...

I actually agree with some of this. But again the gravitas you are speaking of in NY comes from a high concentration of people being located in a dense area. So again, the only thing separating Miami from NY is people. And clearly people can move.

Originally Posted by CXT2000

So no, Miami won't be the next NYC anytime soon, or at all. It still has to compete with Chicago, LA, SF, Houston, Dallas, Austin, Atlanta, Nashville, Charlotte, other cities in Florida too. It will continue to grow, no doubt. But it's hilarious seeing how people who recently moved there think Miami is a perfect city that won't see any declines and is resistant to anything and everything.. it's unrealistic. It's riding a big boom right now, it won't continue to last, that's just normal law of averges... so definitely continue to enjoy it and embrace it, cause this is not something that will last another 5-10 years, let alone 50 years.

As someone who grew up in the Midwest I see A LOT of problems with Miami. I currently split time between the Midwest and Miami and personally prefer to raise my family in the Midwest. And i've been here for about 15 years so I doubt I fall in the recently moved here camp.

With that said it seems pretty hard to deny that a city like Miami seems to be the futre of the US and cities like NY seem to be the past. I actually see it as the opposite. The next 5 - 10 years will be pretty average, but as the base builds the story of Miami gets more and more compelling. In 50 years (hopefully I'm still here) Miami will be vastly different and NY will be luck if its the same.

[gixxer1000]

Originally Posted by elchevere

I don’t see Miami replacing Wall Street in my lifetime, if at all.

I would need to see Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, AMEX, New York Life, BlackRock, etc etc actually pick up and move their headquarters—not 25-50 people here, and I’d need to see U Miami and U Florida become a top 5 feeder to the big financial firms (which they are not) just as 3 in state NY schools still are to Wall Street—NYU, Columbia and Cornell.

As someone who is a product of higher education having been accepted to all 3 of those schools I can tell you that the feeder system is highly dependent upon location and not curriculum. I was a member of a program called MLT that was focuses on getting minorities into top MBA programs. As part of the program they would arrange conferences for us to meet with the admission team of the top 25 MBA programs.

As a result we were sorted by our career choices and introduced to the right schools that would best fit us. Of course all the Wall St types were focused on the NY schools. There were people who prefered different schools. They explained to us clearly that the feeder program is not about curriculum but about alumni networks which were born primarily out of location.

It was for that reason that I turned down my acceptance to the NY schools and went to UofM (the scholarship didnt hurt either ). In the real estate development world it has given me a lot more opportunities down here than a degree from NY would have. I had the privlidge of serving on the board at UofM where the process came full circle and was funneling students to top companies down here.

As more time goes on connection between the Miami offices and local schools will only get more pronounced. To be honest, a top FIU graduate that speaks spanish has more opportunity down here than an NYU grad

[elchevere]

The feeder system to Wall Street and Silicon Valley is also based on caliber of school. Besides the 3 NY schools, Harvard and Penn are the other 2 Wall Street feeder schools in the top 5 followed by Chicago and Michigan; Silicon Valley not only draws from Stanford, Berkeley and CalTech but MIT, Carnegie Mellon, Georgia Tech, U Illinois, and U of Washington among its top 10.

I do agree a FIU student will have more opportunities in Miami but a NYU student will likely have more opportunities nationwide. Heck, a Cornell degree helped me land my first job 2500 miles away in San Francisco; not certain FIU on the resume would have gotten me in the door for an interview. Alumni networks are extremely important as well. Top tier schools are not only well represented locally or regionally but nationally and fellow alumnus tend to take care of their own. USC and Notre Dame have seen their academic stature rise in recent decades but they have typically had strong networks across the country.

Back to NYC—never bet against it….time and time again when others thought it was done (1970’s suburban flight/near bankruptcy, 9/11, 2008 financial crisis, Sandy) it not only came back but came back stronger. I was in Manhattan just last month and it didn’t appear to be missing a beat (office workers be damned; I also didn’t see 1 “migrant” walking NoMad, Flatiron, Union Square, Greenwich Village, Meatpacking District, Chelsea, and up to 57th and Madison….contrast that with my trips to urban CA and I cannot go without seeing the homeless). I also have a good friend in Manhattan who works for Compass who has seen quite a few techies from the SF Bay Area relocating to NYC.

https://www.amny.com/opinion/editori...new-york-city/

[bale002]

Originally Posted by CXT2000

Miami will definitely emerge and grow, but it won't unseat NYC anytime soon, or at all. Competition is always good, but NYC is resilient

My gut feeling is that Miami competes and will compete in bits and pieces.

Wealth management services, hedge fund management, private equity placement, trade finance, real estate finance, and casualty insurance are one thing, while primary bond issuance, primary equity issuance, secondary market-making, mutual fund management, life insurance fund and pension fund management, and mergers & acquisitions are another.

We’ll see to what extent Miami competes in the latter set.

I hope it does well, niches for sure, but I wouldn’t hold my breath for a grand scale or discount NYC.

Good Luck!

[Corrie22]

Originally Posted by gixxer1000

You don't seem to understand the process. They aren't forcing migrants on buses

churches and charities are moving many times more "migrants" on busses than any state could ever dream of.....

...and it's flying totally under the radar

[gixxer1000]

Originally Posted by elchevere

The feeder system to Wall Street and Silicon Valley is also based on caliber of school. Besides the 3 NY schools, Harvard and Penn are the other 2 Wall Street feeder schools in the top 5 followed by Chicago and Michigan; Silicon Valley not only draws from Stanford, Berkeley and CalTech but MIT, Carnegie Mellon, Georgia Tech, U Illinois, and U of Washington among its top 10.

Actually the numbers are skewed if you are talking about just the top banks. For example if you picked out Goldman Sachs, Citi, JP Morgan etc. And looked at all the alumni at just those 3 companies you would get a list of top 10 schools.

However if you did a survey of ALL the people IN NY working in finance, business, investment banking, etc. that list would be dominated by NY Schools. So if you are talking about the top 5 companies in investment banking alone I would agree that the top 1o list is somewhat spread out. But if you are talking about the 180,000 employees working in all capacties on on Wall st you will find more Fordham graduates than Harvard.

Originally Posted by elchevere

I do agree a FIU student will have more opportunities in Miami but a NYU student will likely have more opportunities nationwide. Heck, a Cornell degree helped me land my first job 2500 miles away in San Francisco; not certain FIU on the resume would have gotten me in the door for an interview. Alumni networks are extremely important as well. Top tier schools are not only well represented locally or regionally but nationally and fellow alumnus tend to take care of their own. USC and Notre Dame have seen their academic stature rise in recent decades but they have typically had strong networks across the country.

I agree FIU isn't going to have a network that helps anyone outside of Miami. But again I think this speaks to the future landscape. My school choices were NYU, Columbia, Cornell, USC and U of Miami. They were all for their graduate real esate programs. I was waitlisted at Wharton for their MBA and got into Darden (university of Virginia) also MBA.

My choice ultimately came down to which school would provide me the best opportunities directly out of college. Once I decided to move to Miami it was clear that U of M was the best choice. Now if I wanted to move to NY my degree actually dosn't matter because I have experience. To me the network and gravitas that a school has in another state is really only relevant if you don't plan on working in that state directly out of college.

But my main point stands. As Miami becomes a destination city where college gradutes want to live, that is going to bolster the local schools for the industries that are represented here.

So if I ran into a young kid that wanted to work in real estate development in Miami hands down I would tell them to go to U of M over Cornell.

Originally Posted by elchevere

Back to NYC—never bet against it….time and time again when others thought it was done (1970’s suburban flight/near bankruptcy, 9/11, 2008 financial crisis, Sandy) it not only came back but came back stronger. I was in Manhattan just last month and it didn’t appear to be missing a beat (office workers be damned; I also didn’t see 1 “migrant” walking NoMad, Flatiron, Union Square, Greenwich Village, Meatpacking District, Chelsea, and up to 57th and Madison….contrast that with my trips to urban CA and I cannot go without seeing the homeless). I also have a good friend in Manhattan who works for Compass who has seen quite a few techies from the SF Bay Area relocating to NYC.

https://www.amny.com/opinion/editori...new-york-city/

I'm not really betting against NY specifically. What I think is happening is that we are undergoing a cultural shift in this country. Below is a chart showing the median center of the US population. It has steadily been shift south and west. The things that made the old world go are all but gone. NY was a major port and center for manufaturing. These intrinsic things are gone. America has moved to a service based economy where business for the most part don't need to be located in any one location.

You can see on the chart that now the population is started to move south faster than it is moving west. I'm actually big on the Midwest making a resurgence due to affordability and the south rising due to weather. Of all the cities in the south I would say Miami is the best option to provide an urban dense feeling of the traditional cites in a southern climate with the added benefit of being on the ocean.

[elchevere]

^ ^ ^

In your case sounds like you wanted to come to Miami, in which case The U (and free ride) made perfect sense. Your choices would have been more limited had you opted to seek work and/or live outside Florida whereas an Ivy, Stanford, Duke, MIT, etc grad will have more doors open to them in more cities. Besides Miami, Texas cities, Atlanta, and elsewhere remain popular (maybe not for you and I but plenty of others).

College grads might want to come here but their employment choices are still limited. I remember when I asked my boss for permission to move down to San Diego from Orange County--which still gave me access to the even larger LA market (my tech company was decades ahead of the COVID WFH curve). Even though I much preferred San Diego I always feared what would have happened in terms of finding a comparable, let alone better, replacement job (including pay) had I been let go. Fortunately, that fear never materialized. Outside of starting a small business Miami is still in a similar situation for many.

The fact is NYC still offers more opportunities in more fields with higher salaries than here. It certainly is not turning into a Rust Belt city. Besides being the de facto finance capital of the US, if not the world, it is a major player in terms of arts and theatre (who competes with Broadway or Juliard), a media capital, the fashion and retail capital of the country, has a major pharma/healthcare/biotech presence (Pfizer, Bristol Myers Squibb) and is a major tech hub—which is THE driver of all future growth, not to mention NYC can draw from many more schools within its state and region that produce continuous top tier STEM talent. It even has a major presence in your field, real estate development, that is far from tapped out—Hudson Yards being Exhibit A and not the only example.

Before college grads move here en masse there needs to be existing industry in place so they can get good paying jobs that enable them to afford to live here—I.e. the horse before the cart. Miami is improving in some areas and will continue to do so but it is not as diversified and developed as NYC. There’s a limit to the number of people who will be able to bring their existing jobs from other regions with them. Think of it along the lines of MLB free agency—you cannot build your team by relying entirely on free agents (see Yankees and Padres); you need to develop home grown talent from within your organization. Right now NYC (and others) have more higher ranked universities (talent pool) and industry (jobs)in place. Miami is still a work in progress. As my first boss told me, always shoot for the mountain—that way if you still fall short you wind up on top of a hill rather than your face.

[gixxer1000]

Originally Posted by elchevere

^ ^ ^
In your case sounds like you wanted to come to Miami, in which case The U (and free ride) made perfect sense. Your choices would have been more limited had you opted to seek work and/or live outside Florida whereas an Ivy, Stanford, Duke, MIT, etc grad will have more doors open to them in more cities. Besides Miami, Texas cities, Atlanta, and elsewhere remain popular (maybe not for you and I but plenty of others).

I agree my options would've been limited had I needed to leave not just Florida but Miami once I graduated. However 2-5 years after graduation it became a moot point because once I put the expereince under my belt I now have the ability to to anywhere and have turned down NY positions.

Had I gone to NY I would've been a small fish in a big pond an ended up in a mediocre postion most likely. Instead here in Miami I had my pick of the litter.

Being part of MLT I was 1 of a cohort of 300 minorties that all went to top programs. Then an alumni of a group adding 300 more every year. As a result I get to be friend with and network with graduates of all of the schools. My friends from other programs working here in Miami are doing well but the network I built by being here allowed to me to have better options out of the gate which has translated to better growth over my careed.

Originally Posted by elchevere

Before college grads move here en masse there needs to be existing industry in place so they can get good paying jobs that enable them to afford to live here—I.e. the horse before the cart. Miami is improving in some areas and will continue to do so but it is not as diversified and developed as NYC. There’s a limit to the number of people who will be able to bring their existing jobs from other regions with them. Think of it along the lines of MLB free agency—you cannot build your team by relying entirely on free agents (see Yankees and Padres); you need to develop home grown talent from within your organization. Right now NYC (and others) have more higher ranked universities (talent pool) and industry (jobs)in place. Miami is still a work in progress. As my first boss told me, always shoot for the mountain—that way if you still fall short you wind up on top of a hill rather than your face.

I agree with most of what you are saying. I think we are just looking at it from a different angle. The better schools in my opinion are not actually better from a cirriculum standpoint. They are better at getting people placed in certain jobs. As a result the better people then want to go to those schools and it becomes a self fulling prophecy.

So while were currently a free agency team as you mention every year we seem to be winning more and more games. As we continue to do that were going to be able to develop more home grown talent. I think the program I graduate from is a great example. Take a look at the advisory board. It's pretty much a whos who of the real estate development in Miami. This program didn't even exist 15 years ago. Now they have an advisory board with more members than students.

https://real-estate-impact.miami.edu/boards/index.html

Again, I have issues with Miami primarily with raising a family. But from a business and career prosepective I think it has a bright future ahead.

[elchevere]

Sounds good and encouraging. I’m definitely not a Miami basher (on the contrary) but if/when I do see something I question (Wall St being overtaken any time soon), I do like to respond.