Billionaire Ken Griffin says Miami could unseat New York as the world's financial center (Hialeah: to rent, mover)
MiamiMiami-Dade County
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Never say never. Massive budget cuts which are going to hit police, schools and even sanitation hard. Adams is saying the migrant crisis is the reason and that isn't going away anytime soon.
So basically NY is having to cut services in order to house and feed people who do not contribute to the tax base. They are cutting the budget for schools while at the same time adding 30,000 new migrants to the school system. They're cutting the budget for police while adding thousands of migrant men who don't have jobs or the ability earn a living.
Needless to say this is going to be interesting.
The fact of the matter is that Mayor Adams should've just reserved the hotels strictly for families only, meaning people who came here w/ children and not just anybody. The people who came here as single adults could've been forced to use the shelters. We'll see what comes up for NY.
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Originally Posted by gixxer1000
As services get cut it only makes more people want to leave. As people leave that reduces the tax base and requires further cuts. That creates a spiral affect. The place is so overcrowed that the people leaving isn't going to bring much releif on rents and people will again have to pay more in taxes to make up for the people leaving.
Meanwhile a place like Miami can simply build endless towers keeping prices in check. Implementing bad policies has a real world effect.
Keep in mind NY got big in the 19th century because of manufacturing and its location as port. That intrinsic value is gone and now NY is a mecca just because of how dense it is which creates an environemnt for busieness to thrive. In today's world there isn't much in NY that couldn't simply be moved to another city. Which is exactly why Griffin is saying Miami could over take NY. NY is essentially selling a cultural experience which comes from having people live together in a dense environment. You can build the exact same thing in Miami with the added benefit of better weather and access to a real beach.
In the late 19th century to the early 20th century, NY was the major immigrant center in all of America as well as the world. Only other places in the world that were huge immigrant centers was Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, and especially Buenos Aires. Boston and Philadelphia were mainly regional centers and the only city in America that could compete with receiving immigrants was Chicago. Detroit didn't even become a real immigrant center until the 1910's and 1920's when immigration was starting to be curtailed by the federal gov't after WWI.
As far as Miami overtaking NY as the primary financial and economic center, it's possible that Miami competes with NY and Chicago, and I can see Miami overtaking Chicago because of the fact that Miami is on the Atlantic coast, which not only maintains connections to all of Latin America and the Caribbean, but also much of Europe and parts of Africa, just about the same as NY, another coastal city.
Chicago is basically an inland city with a maritime connection via Lake Michigan and shipping things via the St Lawrence Seaway isn't as robust as it once was, as many boats that use the St Lawrence Seaway just stop in Montreal, then ship goods via rail or truck to Canadian and American markets that are further inland. Unless it's a Midwestern state like MI and OH, there's a reason why the largest cities tend to be coastal such as Boston, NY, Newark, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and DC.
I can see Miami reaching over a million people within it's city limits during over lifetimes, as well as South FL booming with over 10 million people in the metro area, but I don't see Miami surpassing NY when it comes to being the financial capital. Wall St is too entrenched for it to be dethroned by Brickell!
To be clear, I'm aligned with Ken Griffin on this one and were not talking about soon:
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“We’re on Brickell Bay, and maybe in 50 years it will be Brickell Bay North how we refer to New York in finance.”
The CTX view seems to be that Miami is riding a boom which will subside. So Miami gains on NY a little bit, then the boom stops and both go back to status quo. The Ken Griffin view is that the status quo has changed and Miami is better suited for this landscape.
Again, what advantage does NY have that can't be built anywhere else?
To be clear, I'm aligned with Ken Griffin on this one and were not talking about soon:
The CTX view seems to be that Miami is riding a boom which will subside. So Miami gains on NY a little bit, then the boom stops and both go back to status quo. The Ken Griffin view is that the status quo has changed and Miami is better suited for this landscape.
Again, what advantage does NY have that can't be built anywhere else?
The stickiest points will be biz relationships, resistance to change, entrenched family iife, supplier-client network location & proximity.
It can all be built elsewhere, but it could take 20+ years.
The fact of the matter is that Mayor Adams should've just reserved the hotels strictly for families only, meaning people who came here w/ children and not just anybody. The people who came here as single adults could've been forced to use the shelters. We'll see what comes up for NY.
They should have not put anyone in hotels. They now have families refusing to live the multimillion dollar tens that are temperature controlled, have private bathrooms, electricity, etc. because its to far from where there kids go to school for free. So the same people that supposedly walked for weeks through South America with no food, running water, etc. are now turning down accomodations not afforded to citizens.
And I'm not blaming them either, its human nature I guess. Which again is why they never should've been put in hotels to begin with.
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Originally Posted by wanderer34
I can see Miami reaching over a million people within it's city limits during over lifetimes, as well as South FL booming with over 10 million people in the metro area, but I don't see Miami surpassing NY when it comes to being the financial capital. Wall St is too entrenched for it to be dethroned by Brickell!
We agree on Chicago. It appears as though they are actively trying to run that city into the ground.
As far as Wall st being to entrenched, I think this misses the mark. It's sort of like saying it always has so it always will. Nothing last forever. The question is what does NY have that other locations don't and will NY make the necessary changes to adapt with the times.
I beleive it is the thinking that is presented here that will actually be the undoing of NY. There are no real advantages in terms of location that NY has over Miami. In fact I'd argue Miami has a much better location. So what is so special about NY that it can't be picked up and moved to Miami over a 50 year process?
Florida is clearly more pro business than NY. As Miami chips away at what point is NY going to change course lower taxes. Meanwhile Miami is essentially a new city where most of the buildings are built new and cheaper which means it will have less legacy costs for the forseeable future.
They should have not put anyone in hotels. They now have families refusing to live the multimillion dollar tens that are temperature controlled, have private bathrooms, electricity, etc. because its to far from where there kids go to school for free. So the same people that supposedly walked for weeks through South America with no food, running water, etc. are now turning down accomodations not afforded to citizens.
And I'm not blaming them either, its human nature I guess. Which again is why they never should've been put in hotels to begin with.
Either way, the action of placing random people in four or five star hotels by the mayors and the governors was what started this state of dependency and entitlement from the asylum seekers and the migrants in general. Every migration that has historically happened towards this country, usually the migrants or immigrants were used to fend for themselves, but in this case, most of the migrants, mainly from Venezuela, were placed in these hotels, in which I personally had no problems since many of those people had absolutely no funds available due to the very long trek to America by foot plus the economic embargo and flight ban placed on Venezuela by America forced a lot of Venezuelans to migrate by foot to the southern border, and many crossed the border (often illegally) just to claim asylum.
What I'm saying is that while some will be deported due to potential criminal acts, many of those people that have crossed the southern border, especially from Venezuela are going to stay, and a lot of pols from both parties are going to be using those Venezuelan asylum seekers as political footballs, especially since America and Venezuela are at political odds to this day, and as long as Maduro is in power as President of Venezuela, and socialism reigns in Venezuela, you'll see future attempts at trying to reach America either by air, land, or sea because if it's that bad in Venezuela, even if the border wall gets completed, people are still going to find new ways to come to America. Crazy, isn't it?
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Originally Posted by gixxer1000
We agree on Chicago. It appears as though they are actively trying to run that city into the ground.
Even if Chicago falls into a Detroit-style nadir, it will still be the hub of the Midwest because of the rail and interstate lines that terminate in Chicago, as well as the numerous manufacturing industries and the corporate industries. It's funny that newer projects are going up in Chicago while you have large swaths of land in the South and the West Sides that have been abandoned or empty, and all are anchored by a buzzing and vibrant downtown, similar to NY.
Miami is a much newer, and a much more dynamic city. NY has the lock on European connections, regardless on how Miami improves on that level, while everything Asian belongs to SF. LA is Hollywood, Chicago is the Midwest, Atlanta is the South, Houston is TX and the energy and space industry, DC is the federal government, and Miami is practically the capital of not just Latin America, but the Capital of the Americas!
Quote:
Originally Posted by gixxer1000
As far as Wall st being to entrenched, I think this misses the mark. It's sort of like saying it always has so it always will. Nothing last forever. The question is what does NY have that other locations don't and will NY make the necessary changes to adapt with the times.
I beleive it is the thinking that is presented here that will actually be the undoing of NY. There are no real advantages in terms of location that NY has over Miami. In fact I'd argue Miami has a much better location. So what is so special about NY that it can't be picked up and moved to Miami over a 50 year process?
Florida is clearly more pro business than NY. As Miami chips away at what point is NY going to change course lower taxes. Meanwhile Miami is essentially a new city where most of the buildings are built new and cheaper which means it will have less legacy costs for the forseeable future.
London in Britain and Paris in France aren't just the political capitals and the largest cities of their countries, but they're also the financial capitals as well, and along with NY, those three cities have historically had the strongest economies for not just decades, but centuries starting in the 18th century. London and Paris are much older cities than NY, beginning when the Roman Empire was starting to fall after expanding as far north to Britain and Far East as to modern-day Poland and Romania (hence the name).
In Canada, Quebec City and later Montreal was founded around the 17th century, if I'm not mistaken by the French, while Boston became the reserve for the Puritans, NY for the Dutch, and Philadelphia for the Swedes, then the Quakers later on. Montreal (and Quebec) still maintains ties to France to this very day, even though the Quebec French is frowned upon in France, and Boston, NY, and Philadelphia still looks up to Europe to this day, and as long as those histories are intertwined, then Europe and America are going to regard each other cities along the east coast and in Western Europe in the same light.
It's said that the face of America is New York, not Chicago, DC, LA, or Miami, the face of Britain is London, not Birmingham, Manchester, or Liverpool, and the face of France is Paris, not Marseilles (my personal favorite French city due to it being on the coast, hosting the largest port in France, if I'm not mistaken, and being not too far away from Monte Carlo and the French Riviera), Lyon, or Toulouse.
For states, Miami is the face of FL, not Tampa, Orlando, and Jacksonville because Miami Dade county is the largest county although Miami isn't the largest city in FL, and South FL is a Top 10 MSA and CSA, Chicago the face of IL, Detroit the face of MI, Atlanta the face of GA, Boston the face of MA and New England, and New Orleans the face of LA. Only states which cannot have that one face are CA and TX due to the massive sizes of both states.
Also, while I'm coming from Philadelphia, outside of sports, that city has ceased being the "face of PA" due to a lot of corruption, weak mass transit coverage and bad planning plus an ugly supertall which I won't go into depth and I believe that Pittsburgh, while smaller than Philadelphia and less important, is gradually becoming the new face due to a more stable local economy than Philadelphia.
Finally, NY will still exist due to the location of the city as well as the natural waterways and the large bay that exists in NY. The United Nations, the national media (exception of Telemundo and Univision), the advertisers, the fashion designers, and the stockbrokers aren't planning on moving out of NY anytime soon because everything is there.
Miami is in it's infancy regarding being a major financial and economic capital in the same vein as Chicago and NY. I can see Miami displacing Chicago in 10-20 years simply because of Miami's location on the Atlantic Ocean meaning it will have greater access to European, Arab, and African markets and the closest American city to the Caribbean and Latin America than the inland Southern and Midwestern cities. Atlanta may have the busiest airport in the world, but it doesn't mean jack to me as having more connections to the 6 inhabitable continents are much more important to me as an airport than just being a major air transfer point, which is why Miami, not Atlanta, will become a GaWC Alpha city and possible an Alpha + city like Dubai, Hong Kong, and Singapore if it plays it's cards right! (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global...etwork#Alpha_+) The only way it can be NY is if the Latino share of Miami and Miami Dade County allows for more black, white, Arab, and some Asian (preferably from the Philippines due to the old Spanish ties and maybe some Vietnamese and Cambodians) to placed in certain parts of Miami Dade since the city of Miami is too small to create such a city the magnitude of NY, and even creating different CBD's around South FL such as Hialeah, Coral Gables, Kendall, Miami Beach, and Aventura as well as Hollywood, Ft Lauderdale, Boca Raton, and West Palm Beach.
^ Miami more dynamic than NYC? On what planet? lol.
Miami is still too tied to LatAm, the population reflects that (93% of Immigrants being Pan-American) and so does the concentration of firms. NYC is the capital of the world, Chicago has links globally too, LA too but not as much as Chicago/NYC. You mentioned Canadian cities, Montreal is the North American link (and hub) for Europe, the Middle East and Africa (mainly Northern Africa) with Asia emerging, Toronto is global and in terms of linkage, second to NYC. If Toronto was an American city, it would surpass Chicago. Miami is similar to Vancouver, where all eggs are in one basket (Asian markets vs LatAm markets) and reliance on investors for those areas (and too much emphasis on real-estate).
The other thing we have to be aware, Miami only grew because every major city was shut down for two years. How will Miami's ranking be once all cities recover? Lets revisit this in the short term (5-10 years). It won't unseat the likes of Chicago, LA or SF anytime soon, either. Houston and Dallas (and I'd argue Austin) all have better chances and infrastructures in place to becoming the capital of the South or overtaking a city such as Chicago.
The other thing we have to be aware, Miami only grew because every major city was shut down for two years. How will Miami's ranking be once all cities recover? Lets revisit this in the short term (5-10 years). It won't unseat the likes of Chicago, LA or SF anytime soon, either. Houston and Dallas (and I'd argue Austin) all have better chances and infrastructures in place to becoming the capital of the South or overtaking a city such as Chicago.
I'm beginning to understand your view, but you must be new to Miami. The last couple years while grabbing headlines haven't really changed it much here. Sure we got a few extra New Yorkers, a few new restaurants and in increase in housing cost (whcih most people here don't want), but all the change and growth that were referring to happend over the last 20 years and was here prior to covid.
When you look at the greater downtown area 90% of what is here now wasn't even here 20 years ago. Here is a picture from around 2005.
Downtown had a few buildings, Brickell have a couple of office on the bay and a bunch of old condos to the south on the water from the Miami Vice days. To put it in perspective prior to 2000 there were roughly 3,500 residential units built in ALL of the greater downtown area. Then between 2000 and 2020 prior to covid there were over 40k units built. Were talking roughly 150 towers, along with 2 malls and plenty of office buildings al on land that was mostly vacant.
Prior to the 07-08 crash Miami was essentially South Beach. Outside of a few office workers no one spent any real time in Downtown or Brickell. In the run up to the crash a bunch of condos were built on speculation. Once the crash hit we essentially had dozens of EMPTY condo towers. Prices dropped to $200/sf for a luxury condo with water views. You could rent a one bedroom luxury condo built to sell for $700k that was never lived in for $1300.
This of course attracted a lot of people to live in Brickell. Boy, those were the good old days. The porn companies would just rent out dozens of units and film on the balconies and pool decks. But with that insanely low rent for such a nice product it attracted a massive amount of people. The roughly 40k population doubled to over 100k in 2020. Brickell essentially went from a neighborhood where no one lived to an area more dense than everywhere but Chicago, SF and NY.
And again, I keep harping back to density. In our service based economy it is density that allows these creative business to thrive. NY has density in spades and will continue to be the most dense location for decades to come if not always. But what we see happening with companies like Citadel it that once you reach a certian level of density in another location companies start seeing they have options.
And now in NY its actually the density that is working against them. Because they're essentially built out, it cost extremely more to add new buildings which means the cost are going to stay high. Meanwhile we build in Miami for a fraction of the cost on mostly empty land that will keep prices in check for decades to come.
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