Fair Tax Ad / Pension Problems

[Hiruko]

Originally Posted by My Kind Of Town

IL margins prior to 2012:
12.0% (2000)
10.4% (2004)
25.2% (2008)

How far do you want me to go back? I don’t see a trend other than IL went strong for Obama and Hilary (local bump seeing that they both grew up in Chicagoland)? The only trend I see is that IL has consistently voted for Dem presidents with a 10%+ margin for the past two decades. On the other hand, the trend in Texas over the past three election cycles has consistently narrowed as northerners and westerns continue to migrate south.

Originally Posted by My Kind Of Town

Texas margins since 2000 for comparison:

21.3% (2000)
22.9% (2004)
11.8% (2008)

I'm not sure what your goal is here in this discussion. It seems like you're trying to prove the 'demographics is destiny' theory—more accurately, Democratic hope. I think that has been proven largely inaccurate or overly simplistic again and again. Politics is much more fluid than it can sometimes appear. Trends can change suddenly. I mean look at Ohio... Polarization could rapidly decline at some point, we could have a total economic collapse, who knows? It's all temporary and up for a vote every two years.

[My Kind Of Town]

Originally Posted by Hiruko

I'm not sure what your goal is here in this discussion. It seems like you're trying to prove the 'demographics is destiny' theory—more accurately, Democratic hope. I think that has been proven largely inaccurate or overly simplistic again and again. Politics is much more fluid than it can sometimes appear. Trends can change suddenly. I mean look at Ohio... Polarization could rapidly decline at some point, we could have a total economic collapse, who knows? It's all temporary and up for a vote every two years.

I was responding to the statement (or implication) that the voter trend shifts occurring in Texas are somehow similar to Illinois over the past 10-20 years. That is FALSE.

[Avondalist]

Originally Posted by My Kind Of Town

I was responding to the statement (or implication) that the voter trend shifts occurring in Texas are somehow similar to Illinois over the past 10-20 years. That is FALSE.

I was not implying that. I was pointing out that simplistic extrapolation of trends can lead to unrealistic conclusions, such as that Illinois could become a swing state within 12 years.

You did provide more data and I don't contest that Texas is purpler than Illinois.

[Bitey]

Originally Posted by My Kind Of Town

Most assume college educated white folk aren’t Democrats, bro. Used to be true, not any longer

LOL, since when? A major conservative complaint about colleges and universities is they're leftist indoctrination factories. Any time a sane human being hears a member of the loony left say something along the lines of "meritocracy is white supremacy" they think to themselves, "you have to college to learn how to be that stupid."

If I'm ever in a position to make hiring positions at my company, I'm gonna delete any resume of anyone whose major ends in the word "Studies."

Originally Posted by Hiruko

There's a difference between a swing state and a targeted state. Democrats hold no statewide offices in Texas and haven't since the 1990s. They also fell well short of their goals for the state legislature. The Democrats also haven't won the state in a presidential election since 1976. The narrowing margin isn't very meaningful. It was about only 3 points less Republican than Illinois was Democratic in 2020. Yet, nobody is talking about Illinois being in-play in the near future.

Let's also not forget how much money the Democrats poured into Texas -- what I hear they outspent Republicans nearly 2 to 1 -- only to go 0 for 10 in the 10 Congressional seats they tried to flip, Cornyn still won re-election by 10 percentage points, and they gained all of three percentage points in perhaps the most abnormal and unpredictable Presidential race in modern history. For all intents and purposes they took all that money and ran it through a Lone Star shredder.

[dtcbnd03]

Look at the tidal wave of companies relocating from California to Texas. Imagine if the fair tax had passed in Illinois. With remote work here to stay every big city with high taxes needs to be worried about this...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/11/gov-...-to-texas.html

[jmgg]

Originally Posted by Bitey

LOL, since when? A major conservative complaint about colleges and universities is they're leftist indoctrination factories. Any time a sane human being hears a member of the loony left say something along the lines of "meritocracy is white supremacy" they think to themselves, "you have to college to learn how to be that stupid."

If I'm ever in a position to make hiring positions at my company, I'm gonna delete any resume of anyone whose major ends in the word "Studies."



Let's also not forget how much money the Democrats poured into Texas -- what I hear they outspent Republicans nearly 2 to 1 -- only to go 0 for 10 in the 10 Congressional seats they tried to flip, Cornyn still won re-election by 10 percentage points, and they gained all of three percentage points in perhaps the most abnormal and unpredictable Presidential race in modern history. For all intents and purposes they took all that money and ran it through a Lone Star shredder.

Very wise rule of thumb. Never heard that before, but it makes all the sense in our world today.