Is CDA and North Idaho becoming overpopulated and overpriced? (Boise: sale, crimes)
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When you're uprooting your life and hoping to put down roots in a place that's over 2,000 miles away, it's really unsettling to think that the area you're relocating to is likely to change very significantly in the next 5-10 years.
Everyone brings who they are with them when they move. That makes change inevitable when newcomers arrive in large numbers continuously.
The thing about change is it is less noticeable for those living in a place than it is for those who who don't.
Change happens in organic ways- newcomers bring new demands, the demands are met, and the place changes.
If the old-timers object to the changes, there will be some friction present as the changes come. If not, the change goes mostly un-noticed.
I watched a couple of cities in Montana radically change over a decade's time span from big, continuous influxes of newcomers. To me, the changes degraded those places and caused them to lose much of the charm they had possessed 10 years earlier, but to those who had lived through the changes, most didn't realize how much they had changed.
And when I explained the changes, they didn't care very much. Because they were invested in where they lived.
Some folks didn't like the changes, but didn't want to leave. There was still enough of the old times left to keep them where they had planted roots.
It was the newcomers who packed up and left instead. I once talked to a local banker about that, and she said the average newcomer lasted 18 months before leaving in one of the cities.
Folks tend to move looking at all the bright sides of a move and dismissing all the dark sides. They have a harder time trying to think about struggling in a new place than believing it's a better place than the one they are in.
That's especially true when moving is a long-distance thing. There's not a lot of difference between moving from one state to an adjoining state, but when someone moves more than a couple of hundred miles, the new place is bound to be much different than they think. Sometimes to the better, sometimes to the worse, and most often a mixture of both.
I think you are correct. I strongly suspect that it's the retiring Baby Boomers who are driving the upward spiral in housing prices. The youngest Baby Boomers are now 56, still about ten years from retirement.
Expect a tight housing market for the next ten years or so. Then, when the die-off starts, 10-20 years later, there will be a surplus and theoretically, prices will drop.
Hard to say for sure with the advances in medical technology. It's entirely possible that living to age 90 will be "normal".
I'm not sure about the timing, but I agree it's not clear this area will see the same level of demand long term. It seems to be a generational thing that many (not all) baby-boomers want to move to more rural areas when they retire. It's not clear that subsequent waves of retirees will behave the same way. Millennials, for instance, seem to have a greater appreciation for the amenities found in urban areas, and only time will tell if that is sustained when they retire. I suspect the answer will have a lot to do with how well cities maintain their "livability" over the long haul. Many don't seem to be doing very well at that this summer!
Another factor is whether companies support more working remotely. If that happens, then some workers may decide to live in places like NID for the quality of life that's here, but achieve the higher incomes typically associated with urban areas. I'm to be a fan of that, and I think technology is making that more feasible all the time, but I also know many senior corporate leaders have a strong reluctance to move in that direction in a big way. It's a cultural thing as much as anything else. Hard to say whether that will be a future trend.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nm9stheham
As far as the housing price long term, I would not expect any big drops in the established areas like CDA. The commercial activities are not based in resource extraction or manufacturing. The loss of these economic activities has caused all of the big declines that I can think of various towns and regions of the US. There may be some fluctuations like in the Bay area over the last few decades but the trend will stay upwards, IMHO. There are more people in the world every day. The US population is projected to be up another 15% in 20 years.
A key factor in north Idaho is that so much of the growth is due to relocating retirees. We (yes, I am one of them) bring an ability to buy housing that is in line with much higher cost of living locations. To a large extent this has driven the cost of housing in north Idaho beyond what most people who live and work in the local economy can afford. If the local economy can't make adjustments, and if that stream of retirees slows (see my comment above), then I think the local housing market will see prices fall to a level that more locals can afford. Important to recognize that I'm thinking about a 20 year sort of timeline.
I actually wrote down what in "MY OPINION" is necessary for a successful community. In various forms it made its way to official publications, but I don't anybody paid attention or cared. So here goes...........
First...is the local political community that deeply cares about the town. There is no substitute for this.
Here is how you tell you have a "successful community". All towns have issue and problems. The good ones overcome the issues and problems and work to solve them.
High level of support for community services....
Good schools, libraries, and roads are always a sign of a successful community. More important, the focus is on making sure the community stays up to date.
For example, I lived in a very conservative community.
When the internet and fiber optics were just becoming important to business, the leadership went to cable and telecommunication companies in town and asked for them to start deploying fiber. The answer was "in your dreams" we probably will NEVER do it, because the town is too small.
They decided to build it themselves using local government. Even battled the corporations to a draw in the Legislature when the corporations got the Governor to do their bidding in trying to stop the project.
In small communities many times it is ONLY the local government with the bonding and taxing authority to build projects that meet community needs. Waiting for the corporations to do it, means it will in most cases never get built.
The local media provides leadership on issues.
I have lived in communities that were awful. They knew it. So did the local community and they fought and bickered among themselves agreeing only that ALL their problems were coming from outside the community.
I have also lived in Polly Anna communities. Everything was wonderful, except it wasn't. Kind of a Stepford Wives town.
Good communities feel good about themselves. They don't blame the outside world for their problems. More importantly, the discussion focus on SOLUTIONS instead of complaints.
Connections to the World.
Good communities have links to the world. They might be isolated geographically, but they are connected to the nearest urban areas. They even have links throughout the world. I think that is why college towns are successful. BUT there are lots of towns with local companies with business throughout the world. See last item below.
Communications to the outside world.
This was originally written in the 1980's and 1990's. These days these links are much easier than in the past. Successful communities NEVER exist in isolation. Conditions in the world affect everybody these days. You really do need to know what is going on "outside" and how it affects YOUR community.
Large base of small proprietorships.
In small towns, the leadership for the community primarily comes from the business community. If you don't have a strong local business community you probably do not have a successful community. That is one of the factors that has hurt local communities when Costco, Office Depot, Lowe's and a host of other stores show up and suck up the lifeblood of local towns.
In most towns, it is just local retail stores. In successful communities they are businesses with operations throughout the country or around the world. You would be surprised how many small communities have businesses with operations throughout the world.
Thinking of moving to a different city or town. Honestly, rank the community on those five factors. Then factor in your personal needs such as weather, etc. etc.
I would be interested in reading your report, ByJoveJam.
My sense is there is a high level of support in Sandpoint itself, but increasingly there is a significant divide between Sandpoint residents and residents of rural Bonner county. The county residents pay for much of Sandpoint's community services. Schools are heavily supported with property tax levies, which seem to always pass. Support is strong in the town, weaker in the county where most of the property value is located. Sandpoint would like to move in the direction of a more regional government model, which is an anathema to most residents in the county at large. The divide between the town and the county is a real bone of contention in the area.
The local media provides leadership on issues.
Definitely not. The local media in NID overall is very poor. The reporting on local issues is poor, with reporters frequently failing to ask key questions. Little evidence of critical thinking. The writing is often quite bad. Discussion is heavily weighted towards complaints vs. solutions.
Connections to the World.
I'd lean towards saying no, but this one is debatable IMO. There are only a few local Bonner county companies that have links outside NID (Litehouse, Kochava, Encoder Products, Daher/Kodiak, perhaps a couple others I've missed). They are here, but all are relatively small, and I don't see that they have connections to the outside world that extend much beyond those who work for them.
Communications to the outside world.
Not like most places, but getting better. It's better in Sandpoint itself where there is generally good Internet service, but in Bonner county overall not so much.
Large base of small proprietorships.
I mark this one a yes for Sandpoint and Bonner county overall.
So from my perspective very much of a mixed bag ...
In the late 70's the Forest Service closed down a large office in Sandpoint and offered to move everybody to CDA where their new jobs were located.
Everyone chose to drive the 45 minutes instead of move!! That opened my eyes to the difference in the communities.
It is a fine line between a stagnant community and one that grows organically without depending on in-migration for economic growth.
Having lived in both southern Idaho and north Idaho the communities in southern Idaho were much more "successful". Idaho Falls and Twin Falls are now metro areas instead of small towns and Boise metro is larger than Spokane metro.
Of course, now Boise and Twin Falls are both off my list of desirable communities. Still curious about Idaho Falls.
I will be interesting to see what happens to migration in the US one year after the COVID situation officially ends.
In the late 70's the Forest Service closed down a large office in Sandpoint and offered to move everybody to CDA where their new jobs were located.
Everyone chose to drive the 45 minutes instead of move!! That opened my eyes to the difference in the communities.
It is a fine line between a stagnant community and one that grows organically without depending on in-migration for economic growth.
Having lived in both southern Idaho and north Idaho the communities in southern Idaho were much more "successful". Idaho Falls and Twin Falls are now metro areas instead of small towns and Boise metro is larger than Spokane metro.
Of course, now Boise and Twin Falls are both off my list of desirable communities. Still curious about Idaho Falls.
I will be interesting to see what happens to migration in the US one year after the COVID situation officially ends.
Why is this with Twin Falls and Boise of your list? Just curious?
What about Pocatello, Idaho Falls, Chubbuck or Blackfoot up to Rigby?
Idaho has courteous drivers? I need to move to your side of the state. I have lived in many states and would rate Idaho as second from the last for me. Maybe it is the Pocatello to Idaho Falls area.
?? I would be interested to know which part of Idaho is safest to drive and which areas to avoid the worst drivers if that were possible.
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