Coronavirus in Idaho (Boise, Idaho Falls, Twin Falls: vacation home, living, most dangerous)

[forzalugano]

People from LA and Seattle fled/flew up to their vacation homes in Sun Valley.

That county has more confirmed cases than the rest of the state combined 17 so far, despite being the most isolated and rural

There is one ICU bed in Ketchum.

[mod note] Original thread title was "Blaine County has recorded 17 positive tests for coronavirus". Changed to be more generic to all of Idaho. [/mod note]

[dcisive]

Ohhh just GREAT! Now they will send their sick down to Twin Falls St. Lukes and start the epidemic down there......wonderful :-(

[banjomike]

It makes no difference at all where a virus originates. It's all about the virus itself.

If a virus is highly infectious, it moves fast. If not very infectious, it moves slowly.

Viruses land in the middle between living and non-living things. They replicate and have DNA, but they don't have any of the other things that constitute life. All science really knows about their 'life' is they all depend on living things to replicate.

Once they quit replicating, they disappear. But they don't really reproduce themselves like all living creatures do. They come into being through mutation alone, so no one knows why some types survive. We know nothing about all the viruses that once arrived through mutation and disappeared because they never found hosts.

All living things have been attacked by viruses ever since life began. So everything that is alive has developed an immune system to protect itself against them. Every immune system in nature wipes out more viruses by far than those that survive.

Mutation is continuous in all viruses and living things. But life adds complexity, and complexity is the reason why some of us are humans and some of us are monkeys. Complexity slows mutation down a lot.

Viruses mutate much faster because they are so simple. They have no cells; they are sub-cellular. This allows much faster mutation.

Our immune system is very sophisticated after fighting viruses for several million years. The viruses that were our worst threats have all disappeared because life's immune systems wiped them out ages ago. Constant mutation demands constant defense, so our own immune systems eliminates almost all of the most dangerous viruses to life.

There is no COVID-19 yet in Bonneville county, but it will come. Pretty soon too, because it is highly infectious.

Will the folks in Idaho Falls blame Rexburg for infecting them? Probably.

But will blame slow the virus down? Nope.

Viruses are nature's slot machines. As long as the wheels keep spinning really fast, sooner or later the right combination will come with a really bad payoff jackpot.

Most of the time, the virus' payoff is the common cold. A few quarters in the cup.

[Syringaloid]

Originally Posted by dcisive

Ohhh just GREAT! Now they will send their sick down to Twin Falls St. Lukes and start the epidemic down there......wonderful :-(

It is on the way regardless.

[nm9stheham]

It's is all about limiting the rate of development of critical cases, which comes from limiting the speed of the spread.

[dcisive]

I would suggest you take a look at some of the detailed story of the Spanish Flu of 1918. It's spread was completely due to the travel of those that were infected. The virus doesn't have a plane or car to travel. It is the human hosts that allowed it to do what it did. It began in a rural farm in Kansas. A resident there, who was infected went into the army. And voila' the rest was history. They DID track this extensively and accurately. I was merely saying if the folks outside of a given area stayed OUT of said area, it would NOT be infected. Then you're dealing with those that already were out of area and got infected and came home. It's a mess to be sure.

[dcisive]

They had on the news tonight that the people of Stanley had to get a bit more forceful requesting that those visiting there in throngs over the last few days (apparently largely out of Ketchum) NOT come to their town. Those poor folks have NO hospital and only 65 full time residents. For crying out loud stay the he** OUT of their town and stay the heck home! Give them a freaking break....they don't need your virus infections in their little town. The folks up there are great and it's a wonderful place to visit (under completely different circumstances). Let's all "get it" when it comes to this social distancing thing. It was the ONLY thing that saved San Francisco from the scourge of the 1918 Spanish Flu. They did a lock down before it hit them when all other areas of the country let it in and didn't do the same. Lessons CAN be learned.

[nm9stheham]

Almost got a place in Stanley 2 years ago. Still keeping my eye on the market there.


I have mixed feelings on the above. I guess it all depends on how bad the influx is and who it is. The reality is that the only good grocery shopping for Stanley-ites is in Ketchum and Hailey, or Boise. Ditto for work; a lot is down in Sun Valley. So it is almost certain that a Stanley resident will bring it in anyway. It is not like back in the olden days when a wagon came in once every 2 weeks in the summer; folks are going and coming from Stanley all the time. (And BTW 'their' hospital is in Ketchum.) But, keeping the flow down will indeed help control the rate is infection, when it does come.



A similar issue is occurring on the Outer Banks of NC. They have locked the doors to visitors (smart IMHO to stop the spring-breakers 2 weeks ago). But now its locked to even non-resident property owners. Plenty of residents on the OBX work up in the Norfolk/VA Beach area. Some resident there is going to bring it in.



I have read plenty of OBX residents' comment protesting their wisdom, but not allowing a healthy non-resident property owning family to come to their own vacation home to be safer is pretty heartless IMHO.


Hard calls....

[Cnynrat]

On one hand, I understand the desire to reduce visitation from areas of high infection rates to areas of low infection rates.

On the other hand there is no legal basis for preventing citizens from moving freely within our country.

In the end much of this comes down to personal responsibility. Is there a chance you've been exposed? Stay home! Are you in the high risk cohort? Stay home!

Otherwise, I think we may be overreacting based on emotions, not reality.

Dave

[banjomike]

Originally Posted by Cnynrat

On one hand, I understand the desire to reduce visitation from areas of high infection rates to areas of low infection rates.

On the other hand there is no legal basis for preventing citizens from moving freely within our country.

In the end much of this comes down to personal responsibility. Is there a chance you've been exposed? Stay home! Are you in the high risk cohort? Stay home!

Otherwise, I think we may be overreacting based on emotions, not reality.

Dave

Good thoughts, Dave. Personal responsibility is thinking of the other guy, not yourself. If you are young and there's a good chance you have been exposed, you might not become seriously ill from the virus, but if you pass it on, an older person who catches it from you could end up in the ICU or the morgue.

The disease is really infectious. If one person infects 3 others, and they all infect 3 others apiece, in no time at all there are around 400 people who are infected. Staying home is by far the best and easiest way to slow this down.

The incubation time- 5 to 14 days- is the most dangerous. A person doesn't feel sick then, but can infect others. All the reports we are getting are folks who caught the virus 2 or more weeks ago, so the reports are far behind the actual spread of the disease. No one knows exactly how far behind, because so few were tested before they caught the virus.

Slowing the epidemic is the only way the medical community can treat the most seriously ill people. Idaho has a serious lack of ICU units in our hospitals. Most of our rural hospitals don't have them. That means anyone who's going into chronic lung failure is either going to have to be transported to an ICU or be treated as best they can where they are.