[EngGirl]

Originally Posted by beach43ofus

OP...what percent constitutes a "collapse" in your opinion, & over what period of time?

Then, I can agree or disagree, but right now, it's too nebulous, & needing definition.

I agree that new home buyers who saw what prior owners paid in property taxes could be shocked when they get their 1st tax bill.

I also agree that prices have already cooled off...starting about 8 months ago. The White hot market has passed.

I think too many affluent buyers are moving into FLA for prices to receed 33%+ w/in 1 year, which is what I'd call a collapse in prices.

Prices need to go down. Number of sales went down dramatically in our area (Tampa) compare to last year. Listed prices are going down by 20-40K which is nothing compare to interest rate hike in last year.

Many people moved to Florida because Florida was cheap. I have many coworkers who moved to FL from CA - they were so happy about low property taxes and were in total shock this morning. Between increased HOI and property taxes monthly payments went up for them. One of my coworkers said taxes for his home in CA about 1 hr from San Francisco were less than what he needs to pay here now. And we run from CA to cheap FL, from high property taxes.

I estimate 25-30% decrease in prices by mid Summer.

[Corrie22]

Florida us a huge state....what happens in one area.....the total opposite can happen in another area at the same time

[beach43ofus]

I agree that due to the new HOA cement inspection and repair reserves laws, condo prices could fall by 33% in a 12 month time frame. Prices falling by 1/3rd in 1 year I would consider a collapse.

I cannot see single family homes following suit...at all. Of course, there will be distressed properties selling near Fort Myers post Ian, but not otherwise.

The snowbirds are starting to return, & many of them are home shopping. We have just passed the low point of the season, so focusing upon Aug, Sept, Oct metrics scews the big picture. If Single family homes in Q4 of 2023, shows a 20%+ price drop versus Q4 of 2022, then I'll donn a life jacket.

SFH's about to collapse...I'm not seeing it...condo's maybe, but not SFHs. Let's see what Q4 shows.

[MOforthewin]

Originally Posted by beach43ofus

OP...what percent constitutes a "collapse" in your opinion, & over what period of time?

Then, I can agree or disagree, but right now, it's too nebulous, & needing definition.

I agree that new home buyers who saw what prior owners paid in property taxes could be shocked when they get their 1st tax bill.

I also agree that prices have already cooled off...starting about 8 months ago. The White hot market has passed.

I think too many affluent buyers are moving into FLA for prices to receed 33%+ w/in 1 year, which is what I'd call a collapse in prices.

I agree. In fact, I don't see anywhere in the United States You'd see that really happen due to a shortage of houses on the market.

Now, there are factor nationwide that it could though. Another 4 years of Biden, or World War 3 or a war with China.

Actually, a war with China would be totally catastrophic. Literally the US and world economy would collapse. If trade with China was suddenly cut off it would be worse than the 1930s depression and probably a lot of people would die too since so much of our basic necessities are produced in China.

Most businesses would be out of business since most products and supplies are made in China. The wealthy would also be hit hard financially with a China war.

There are so many violate things that could cause that though. But if the above happened, a collapse of the housing market should be the least of our worries.

[beachmouse]

Originally Posted by mrviking

Last I checked only 15% of Florida has been developed. I think we still have room.

Though a fair amount of that land is government-owned, undevelopable, or has a conservation easement on it for assorted good reasons.

[LKJ1988]

Bring 08 all over again when my Prop taxes went way down in 2011.

[lluvia]

Originally Posted by EngGirl

What will happen if people won't be able to sell? Nothing good is coming guys.

Thoughts?

Not following. How is falling home prices "nothing good"? Sounds great for potential home buyers.

[MOforthewin]

Originally Posted by beach43ofus

I agree that due to the new HOA cement inspection and repair reserves laws, condo prices could fall by 33% in a 12 month time frame. Prices falling by 1/3rd in 1 year I would consider a collapse.

I cannot see single family homes following suit...at all. Of course, there will be distressed properties selling near Fort Myers post Ian, but not otherwise.

The snowbirds are starting to return, & many of them are home shopping. We have just passed the low point of the season, so focusing upon Aug, Sept, Oct metrics scews the big picture. If Single family homes in Q4 of 2023, shows a 20%+ price drop versus Q4 of 2022, then I'll donn a life jacket.

SFH's about to collapse...I'm not seeing it...condo's maybe, but not SFHs. Let's see what Q4 shows.

The real state market further down the coast from your location is quite a bit different post Ian. Around my area of Charlotte County houses are not moving fast right now. I known someone who's a real estate agent in Lee County and it's so slow he's not even bothering to sell houses right now, just focusing fixing his up since he lives on Pine Island and got wind damage. His house was on pilings so he just avoided the storm surge.

Have to imagine realtors who sell the higher end homes on Sanibel, Captiva took a HUGE hit the last year since there wasn't many homes to sell when they're all getting repaired or complete teardown and rebuild unless you're just selling the land it was on.

Ian might have helped your market up in Sarasota and Bradenton area a bit.

[harry chickpea]

Originally Posted by EngGirl

Something big is coming to Florida Real Estate market and soon!

With current interest rates being close to 8% it's expected to see drop in house prices. Affordability remains the same so the higher rates are, the cheaper houses will be.

However, people who moved and purchased homes in Florida in 2022 are all getting shocking news this week. They all are receiving their property taxes, and I am sure good 99% of these people didn't expect such increase coming.
I mean some people who bought houses that had $4K property taxes for 2022 are now have to pay $9K. Some who paid $7K in 2022 will have to pay $12K this year. Smaller/cheaper homes that were 1-2K in taxes in 2022 and sold are now 4-6K...

Even these who live out of state and rent their homes will feel huge increase this year. The house we rented 2 years ago had $4500 property taxes. It is $7000 this year. Landlords cannot take advantage of homestead so they see the same increase as these who moved to Florida in 2022 and purchased a house.

I am thinking we will see more houses on the market soon. High inventory will cause prices to do down considering high interest rate in place too. Not to mention HOI crisis in Florida...

What will happen if people won't be able to sell? Nothing good is coming guys.

Thoughts?

It has happened at least four times before. The last big one was 2007 and we got out just in time. It is no big deal if you understand what is going on. The ones who get hurt are those who overextend and can't deal with downturns.

[StilltheSame]

Originally Posted by harry chickpea

It has happened at least four times before. The last big one was 2007 and we got out just in time. It is no big deal if you understand what is going on. The ones who get hurt are those who overextend and can't deal with downturns.

Well said. If a recent buyer didn’t overextend, it’s not great- but should not be detrimental.