[Sunbiz1]

Originally Posted by Corrie22

...and it don't get more conservative than Sarah Sanders

dunno...Ozarks Arkansas is known for backward hillbillies

I built hundreds of homes in Florida, and it's full of "hillbillies" in such places as Okeechobee, Ocala; and a number of other areas not located on southern coastlines.
And having supplied building materials, I can assure everyone the homes were overpriced from the start.

[beach43ofus]

OP...what percent constitutes a "collapse" in your opinion, & over what period of time?

Then, I can agree or disagree, but right now, it's too nebulous, & needing definition.

I agree that new home buyers who saw what prior owners paid in property taxes could be shocked when they get their 1st tax bill.

I also agree that prices have already cooled off...starting about 8 months ago. The White hot market has passed.

I think too many affluent buyers are moving into FLA for prices to receed 33%+ w/in 1 year, which is what I'd call a collapse in prices.

[Corrie22]

Originally Posted by Sunbiz1

I built hundreds of homes in Florida, and it's full of "hillbillies" in such places as Okeechobee, Ocala; and a number of other areas not located on southern coastlines.
And having supplied building materials, I can assure everyone the homes were overpriced from the start.

and what does this have to do with "smart" people moving to Ozarks Arkansas?

...it's "crackers" in Florida BTW

[minna_reid]

This is not news. FL prices peaked spring of 2022 and have been coming down ever since. At least here in Jacksonville.

[Sunbiz1]

Originally Posted by Corrie22

and what does this have to do with "smart" people moving to Ozarks Arkansas?

...it's "crackers" in Florida BTW

Uhuh, I heard that word often; in Ft. Myers...so classy.
Perhaps smart people don't wish to pay the outrageous costs of homeowners insurance in your state I retired out of. Or perhaps they've noticed the governor of Arkansas giving Chinese land owners the boot, along with Disney type wokeness.
Florida housing is almost in the same boat as California; and also the reason it's getting more expensive to buy in places like northern Arkansas.
This isn't 2005, when we completely over-built your state; without enough buyers.
There isn't enough current inventory for a collapse, and still too many white; middle aged republicans wishing to move there.

[kidyankee764]

With the insane growth rate and lack of available land in the most popular Florida areas (south of Tampa to the west, and south of Port St. Lucie to the east), prices aren’t going anywhere anytime soon.

[1insider]

Originally Posted by beach43ofus

OP...what percent constitutes a "collapse" in your opinion, & over what period of time?

Then, I can agree or disagree, but right now, it's too nebulous, & needing definition.

I'm not the one you asked but I can see on average condos down 20% or more by the end of next year. We can't escape the higher costs associated with the new law and it will be directly reflected in selling prices. As you noted, the market has already started the cooldown but we have yet to feel widespread effects from the new law because the majority of condos have not completed the inspections and reserve study yet. We'll be hearing stories next year from shocked condo owners.

I read a post at Reddit yesterday from a condo owner in Orlando who bought a condo last year when fees were $375. They increased shortly after he bought to $450 and he just got a notice that they're going to $900. He also said 11 units went up for sale after the notice of increase. Once we begin hearing more of these stories next year there is no way the condo market brushes it off. Those homeowners of the 11 units are not going to be getting the same price that people were willing to pay for the same unit with $450 monthly fees.

I suspect the Legislature might try to do some modification of the law once the outrage from angry condo owners statewide gets loud enough. They'll probably make it worse with whatever solution they can agree on if any.

[EngGirl]

Originally Posted by Corrie22

I searched the internet and could not find anything even close to those numbers....much much less

...so I'm going to need a link to where that came from

I won't be sharing any link publicly, but I suggest you do the following exercise:
1) go to redfin and search for homes sold in 2022
2) go to County appraiser site where that house is located
3) pull 2023 taxes and compare it to 2022

I was going off by Hillsborough and Pasco Counties.

[EngGirl]

Originally Posted by 1insider

I haven't heard of tax increases this high except for recently purchased and reassessed properties. Insurance increases on the other hand, I've heard many stories of doubled YOY premiums. Once the new condo law kicks into gear next year the condo market is toast. That could be good or bad for the single family home market but the witch's brew of high taxes, high insurance, high mortgage rates will definitely be an accelerating headwind for homes. Condos, on the other hand, cannot escape what's coming.

Live in the house for 4 years, homestead in place all 4 years. Taxes went up by $600 this year. No sales, no reset values, nothing.

These who purchased in 2022 or renting and cannot use homestead they see huge increase.

[EngGirl]

Originally Posted by City Guy997S

Ok, I'll play.

2. The house I just bought has a $5600 tax bill due yesterday. House is brand new so I'm paying on the dirt lot value only this year.

Please come back here and let me know what your taxes be next year, in 2024
If you just bought a house your taxes are still using old rates for 2023.