Austin Market has truly gone to **** (New Braunfels, Cedar Park: apartments, new house, job market)

[Gemini1963]

Originally Posted by AMJ27

if we were buying right now, this neighborhood wouldn't be an option. Honestly, I'm worried about how it will change the dynamics of the neighborhood.

None of my business, since we left in late 2011, but this is how we feel about Allandale, too (where we owned a house, but would NEVER be able to afford one again!).

[ashbeeigh]

Originally Posted by AMJ27

There a several discussions on various Circle C facebook pages about the number of Circle C houses going for over $1 million right now. Homes are being bid up several hundred thousands more than the listed price. It's crazy. We've lived here for 11 years and if we were buying right now, this neighborhood wouldn't be an option. Honestly, I'm worried about how it will change the dynamics of the neighborhood.

In my time working in the area, there’s not a single house in CC that I would pay a million dollars for. I thought they were a little over priced even before the bubble. They remind me of the homes across the street from my neighborhood growing up. Those are going for about 350-400 now. I know it’s San Antonio and a completely different market, but still. Not one. The homes in central Austin, like Tarrytown and Clarksville, I could pay a million for. Maybe even the area south of Cesar Chavez between south Congress and south first to Ben white. But not CC.

I’ll add I just saw one pop up on Realtor that says it “backs up to Mary Moore Searight” for 615k. That’s the most outrageous one I’ve seen yet.

[AMJ27]

Originally Posted by ashbeeigh

In my time working in the area, there’s not a single house in CC that I would pay a million dollars for. I thought they were a little over priced even before the bubble. They remind me of the homes across the street from my neighborhood growing up. Those are going for about 350-400 now. I know it’s San Antonio and a completely different market, but still. Not one. The homes in central Austin, like Tarrytown and Clarksville, I could pay a million for. Maybe even the area south of Cesar Chavez between south Congress and south first to Ben white. But not CC.

I’ll add I just saw one pop up on Realtor that says it “backs up to Mary Moore Searight” for 615k. That’s the most outrageous one I’ve seen yet.

There have been a handful of $900-1mil homes in the neighborhood over the last few years that are very nice with larger lots, big square footage, beautiful pools, backing to the golf course in the gated communities. What's different right now is that it's the more ordinary CC homes in the original part of the neighborhood that are fetching that price, and the previously upper priced homes in CC are being listed for $2 mil (seriously, one hit the market yesterday). I don't disagree that the homes are probably quite similar to a lot of other neighborhoods in other areas that sell for half or a third of the price, but I think it's all about location and supply/demand. I had some similar feelings about the homes just not being worth it in Northern CA when we were trying to decide whether we should move there or Austin 11 years ago. Modest homes that seemed pretty dumpy to us were 2-3x more than what we would have paid for a much nicer and larger home here. It makes me wonder what the future holds for Austin.

[cheeva]

What's crazy is that there are zip codes in Austin with almost no inventory. Literally.

The 78733 zip code has THREE houses for sale.

[riaelise]

This home in Pflugerville was bid up from 514k to 607k. This is what I was talking about earlier...the days of caring about commutes and stuff like that are over since many companies are rethinking remote work. The smart suburbs already planned years ago. As for this home in the link, there's not one thing about that home that would encourage me to pay that much. You see that home, you see another one with gray paint and hgtv touches.

https://www.redfin.com/TX/Pflugervil...home/172474826

Honestly, for a million bucks (or anything close to it) I would NOT want to live in a cookie cutter, neighbor on neighbor subdivision. I'd want a largish lot and a distinct looking home. I'd want lots of trees too. The previous home soured me on those type of canned developments, yet that's what seems to proliferate nowadays.

I truly do think that this isn't sustainable.

[Need4Camaro]

Originally Posted by riaelise

This home in Pflugerville was bid up from 514k to 607k. This is what I was talking about earlier...the days of caring about commutes and stuff like that are over since many companies are rethinking remote work. The smart suburbs already planned years ago. As for this home in the link, there's not one thing about that home that would encourage me to pay that much. You see that home, you see another one with gray paint and hgtv touches.

https://www.redfin.com/TX/Pflugervil...home/172474826

Honestly, for a million bucks (or anything close to it) I would NOT want to live in a cookie cutter, neighbor on neighbor subdivision. I'd want a largish lot and a distinct looking home. I'd want lots of trees too. The previous home soured me on those type of canned developments, yet that's what seems to proliferate nowadays.

I truly do think that this isn't sustainable.

That one had less than 3k sqft too.

FWIW, in Seattle there were plenty of homes going for $600k+ that weren’t much more than ordinary homes built with frame on small lots in the burbs. One of my co-workers paid $800k for a shoebox just outside of downtown Seattle. California suburban prices outside of SF and LA can still leave people in the 800’s to 1 Mil territory for ordinary $300 - $400k homes in AUS.

I guess overall the price is just relative to what people are willing to pay. For me particularly, I’m with you, I would never pay that much for a house. Don’t see the point unless it has something special I want... ...but for those moving here used to more expensive metros, I can see how they could buy into this market and still come out ahead, i personally wouldn’t, and one of the perks to moving to southern states in general was (or used to be) the comparably lower CoL, but I guess the cat is out of the bag now.

In the end, there is no set and standard price for a home, home values are mostly influenced by demand therefore it stands to reason that if someone wants to live in a metro that is considered ‘hip’ and ‘cool’, they are going to have to pay more for it especially if there is no inventory... comparatively... here are some places where you can pay for ‘house’ and not propaganda... not influenced by the massive bubble...

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4...16205373_zpid/

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4...41990268_zpid/

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1...1281220_zpid/?

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1...81298665_zpid/

So prices are generally relative to what people will pay to live in a area, not particularly just the house itself.

As for sustainability, I feel it could go either way right now. I particularly wouldn’t be giddy about taking a mortgage for such a home amount only to find a few years later values dropping to normal again, those folks will be screwed with negative equity. Those paying cash would be at a loss as well if they decide to sell later.. ..but it’s hard to gauge what will really happen mainly because we have hit a point where we can’t outbuild growth and there’s no sign of relief in terms of companies moving here which is another driving force. I heard there are approximately 149 companies relocating to or expanding in Austin alone.

https://www.kvue.com/mobile/article/...4-bdb4f7ad1ad3

https://www.kvue.com/amp/article/mon...0-414e9e1dc1eb

If that’s the case then what may happen is suburbs that were previously affordable will become extensions of Austin in terms of price, and suburbs further away will grow and replace them in terms of affordability... therefore making it sustainable, just not favorable.

[ScoPro]

A 40’ lot? Might as well live in a shoebox apartment.
As much space as we have in Texas, those kinds of sardine developments are a ridiculous joke, IMO, unless townhome living is the desired goal.

I thought the 60’ lot for our current 2,000 sq/ft house was a huge downsize from our previous home.

[ashbeeigh]

Originally Posted by Need4Camaro

If that’s the case then what may happen is suburbs that were previously affordable will become extensions of Austin in terms of price, and suburbs further away will grow and replace them in terms of affordability... therefore making it sustainable, just not favorable.

Let's be real for a second. Up until about 2010 (maybe even later), Leander and Cedar Park were out in the boonies. They were the country. I went to undergrad (2003-2007) with a girl from Cedar Park and she was a two-steppin' boot-wearing Ma'am and Sir kind of person. There was no city in her at all. I think she lives in Abilene now. But watch out, Dallas might push itself out that direction one day too. (Don't take that seriously, I know you're a Dallas guy).

And, if you go back to the late 80s and 90s places like Braker and 35 were far out for Austin. It just keeps getting pushed and pushed and pushed.

[cheeva]

Originally Posted by ashbeeigh

And, if you go back to the late 80s and 90s places like Braker and 35 were far out for Austin. It just keeps getting pushed and pushed and pushed.

Gotta keep pushin' and remember to breath. Before you know it, out pops a baby Austin.

"Oh she's adorable...I think we'll call her Liberty Hill"

[Need4Camaro]

Originally Posted by ashbeeigh

Let's be real for a second. Up until about 2010 (maybe even later), Leander and Cedar Park were out in the boonies. They were the country. I went to undergrad (2003-2007) with a girl from Cedar Park and she was a two-steppin' boot-wearing Ma'am and Sir kind of person. There was no city in her at all. I think she lives in Abilene now. But watch out, Dallas might push itself out that direction one day too. (Don't take that seriously, I know you're a Dallas guy).

And, if you go back to the late 80s and 90s places like Braker and 35 were far out for Austin. It just keeps getting pushed and pushed and pushed.

Dallas intends on pushing its northern burbs all the way to the state line of Oklahoma. DNT has approved extensions all the way to Denison where it will meet U.S. 75 just south of the state line. I particularly would rather Dallas focus more on its downtown rather than eating up all those ranches.

I’m definitely certain Cedar Park and Leander were considered rural and exurban at best within the recent years but the trend of growth on those suburbs hasn’t met a blip, it only keeps growing. I’m basing my opinion on current trajectory not its history.