Austin Market has truly gone to **** (Round Rock, Howe: real estate market, broker, home)

[Trainwreck20]

Originally Posted by ashbeeigh

Just got my daily mueller secret market update. I noticed one home on Berkman had an almost 100k price drop. Looks like someone overestimated how high their house would go for.

At least one home in my area was obviously overpriced even considering them market. They were just fishing for the insane buyer and probably had no need to sell.

[ashbeeigh]

Originally Posted by Trainwreck20

At least one home in my area was obviously overpriced even considering them market. They were just fishing for the insane buyer and probably had no need to sell.

So ridiculous. Berkman can be so busy, I’m even surprised at the current price. But, the only way Im getting into mueller is if the one person I know who has an affordable home decides to sell. Every time her house comes up Im like, “even if it’s 15 years from now, you call me.”

[austin-steve]

Originally Posted by Angelfan760

I know people like to say the market dictates price, but right now this market is fueled by one factor....Emotion....

Not true. Remove "emotion" from the equation and there remains objective realities that are more financial in nature.

Anyone who actually needs a home and is ready, willing and able to purchase, could have only one reason to postpone. That reason would be an unsubstantiated belief that the market will fall and they will be able to get a better deal a year later after renting instead.

That means that the buyer who postpones believes we are in a "bubble", despite the *fact* than none of the elements that define a bubble (which is in fact an emotional phenomenon) exist at present. This leads to the further belief by said buyer, that they can "time" the market and be better off financially a year later when they purchase after first renting/waiting a year.

I could further dissect and break down what I just said, but people will believe what they want to believe.

[riaelise]

This home is a DR Horton in a DR Horton neighborhood...small...and it just sold for 360k.

https://www.redfin.com/TX/Round-Rock.../home/32643892

This home was listed in the 200s btw...like 235,000 or something.

Schools aren't good at all and haven't been good in a long time.

What I'm seeing a lot of are listings priced deliberately low to generate bidding wars. Just about every house that hits the market is being sold for 50-100k over asking. I feel really sorry for people who are looking for homes in the 200s...they simply don't exist anymore. Any listing that is 200k is merely a mirage and the home is really closer to 400k, regardless of neighborhood or schools.

I've also read that local buyers simply are having a hard time competing against out of state buyers that have budgets over 800k

[Angelfan760]

Originally Posted by austin-steve

Not true. Remove "emotion" from the equation and there remains objective realities that are more financial in nature.

Anyone who actually needs a home and is ready, willing and able to purchase, could have only one reason to postpone. That reason would be an unsubstantiated belief that the market will fall and they will be able to get a better deal a year later after renting instead.

That means that the buyer who postpones believes we are in a "bubble", despite the *fact* than none of the elements that define a bubble (which is in fact an emotional phenomenon) exist at present. This leads to the further belief by said buyer, that they can "time" the market and be better off financially a year later when they purchase after first renting/waiting a year.

I could further dissect and break down what I just said, but people will believe what they want to believe.

Spoken like a true Realtor..."Its a great time to buy, better get in now before its too late". We just had a year financially that was only rivaled by the great depression. The Dow as at an all time high despite this. Why because the FED has pumped free money into the market. You have some of the lowest inventory on record because people are scared (an emotion) to list their homes and have strangers in it. You have families moving across the country leaving oppressive states that mismanaged the covid crisis...once again driven by emotion. People moving out of downtown because of being cramped inside during covid....Covid will end, the tax bill will come due, and when it does you will still be telling people "its a great time to buy" because that's your job. A healthy market does not have people offering $100-150k above asking, waiving inspections and appraisals, etc...I have to disagree.

[austinnerd]

Originally Posted by Angelfan760

You have some of the lowest inventory on record because people are scared (an emotion) to list their homes and have strangers in it.

Curious what the basis for this comment is (other than anecdotal)? Are you saying that low inventory is driven in large part by the fact that locals are more reluctant to move because of the notion of having 'strangers in it'? I assume you mean folks looking at the listing? From a practical standpoint, this is the perfect time because inventory is selling so fast, any reasonable listing can often get away with a single week/weekend of showings significantly minimizing potential exposure.

You have families moving across the country leaving oppressive states that mismanaged the covid crisis...once again driven by emotion.

This doesn't make logical sense. If one feels that their local govt is oppressive and mismanaged, that sounds like a very practical reaction, not one that is 'driven' by emotion. There could obviously be an emotional component to it, but calling it the primary driver seems a bit of a stretch.


My bottom line is this. If someone buys a house listed at X and offers X + Y% and wins, what is the window in which they can sell the house for X + y% (plus a little bit of fudge of course). If the answer is 1 year because the market may have slowed but it's not going down vs the answer being 10 years because one "overpayed" in the current market and they will honestly see a loss of value that will take some time to recover from.


Of course one other side effect of today's market is that one can often 'settle' for something they weren't all that excited about just to be able to get _something_, and that is a real effect that makes buying in today's market non ideal.

[CarnivalGal]

Originally Posted by Angelfan760

I know people like to say the market dictates price, but right now this market is fueled by one factor....Emotion. When you have a 3/2 2500 sq.ft home with no pool or anything special going for $799K in Steiner the market is completely out of whack. That is basically a 100% increase in 2 years. This is not healthy and it is not going to end well.

The house you're talking about (I think), is right around the corner from me. It was listed this week. It is not under contract yet. It's also WILDLY overpriced. Like $200K overpriced. It won't sell for that price.

The market here is nuts for sure, but there's still a threshold the market will bear. Those folks are being greedy, and it's not going to work. Someone else tried to do this a couple months ago by listing their house in the Headlands section of Steiner for $900K. It sat on the market for 30 days while there were literally no, nada, zero other houses available and homes that did pop up on the market sold in a day. That house never sold. They eventually pulled it off the market.

[mhudson78641]

We have a house in Travisso listed for 1.35 million. I think way overpriced and not pending yet. One in same street listed for 999 and had multiple offers over a million.

[ashbeeigh]

Originally Posted by mhudson78641

We have a house in Travisso listed for 1.35 million. I think way overpriced and not pending yet. One in same street listed for 999 and had multiple offers over a million.

Based on the way people are talking about Travisso in this forum, I'm surprised it hasn't sold yet. Or does it not have the view of the Rockies that everyone wants? (so much snark, I'm sorry).

[Austin97]

Originally Posted by austin-steve

Not true. Remove "emotion" from the equation and there remains objective realities that are more financial in nature.

Anyone who actually needs a home and is ready, willing and able to purchase, could have only one reason to postpone. That reason would be an unsubstantiated belief that the market will fall and they will be able to get a better deal a year later after renting instead.

That means that the buyer who postpones believes we are in a "bubble", despite the *fact* than none of the elements that define a bubble (which is in fact an emotional phenomenon) exist at present. This leads to the further belief by said buyer, that they can "time" the market and be better off financially a year later when they purchase after first renting/waiting a year.

I could further dissect and break down what I just said, but people will believe what they want to believe.

bubbles dont have to be emotional. There can be temporary market conditions that drive price spikes (or drops).

A big company doing layoffs, a big company moving to an area, a global pandemic that reduces supply.