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No freeze yet, looks like no freeze for the month of November (I hope its the same way for December).
What's your latest first freeze ever? I would guess not too deep into December. Ours is something like December 8th I believe. But I'd guess the only place to not see a freeze by New Year's would be along the gulf coast, Florida and coastal California. I just checked the Central Park data and only two lows in the 30's this month and 3 in October, talk about mild.
What's your latest first freeze ever? I would guess not too deep into December. Ours is something like December 8th I believe. But I'd guess the only place to not see a freeze by New Year's would be along the gulf coast, Florida and coastal California. I just checked the Central Park data and only two lows in the 30's this month and 3 in October, talk about mild.
That is a classic case of the heat island combined with a very mild weather pattern. I am watching those warm SSTs in the Gulf of Maine. This will likely cause the next coastal storm to be rain again. After that, the GFS indicates the cold should intensify east of the Rockies causing precip to fall as snow just about everywhere. I will believe in the cold solution more once we get a decent snowpack going east of the Rockies Until then, I take the GFS as mostly fantasy after the day 5-7 time period
That is a classic case of the heat island combined with a very mild weather pattern. I am watching those warm SSTs in the Gulf of Maine. This will likely cause the next coastal storm to be rain again. After that, the GFS indicates the cold should intensify east of the Rockies causing precip to fall as snow just about everywhere. I will believe in the cold solution more once we get a decent snowpack going east of the Rockies Until then, I take the GFS as mostly fantasy after the day 5-7 time period
That is true about the snowpack east of the Rockies. To the best of my knowledge there is no snowpack in the Dakota's or northern Minnesota and Wisconsin. That is usually a given by now, at least for Minnesota and Wisconsin. Come to think of it, does anywhere east of the Rockies have snow on the ground right now?
That is true about the snowpack east of the Rockies. To the best of my knowledge there is no snowpack in the Dakota's or northern Minnesota and Wisconsin. That is usually a given by now, at least for Minnesota and Wisconsin. Come to think of it, does anywhere east of the Rockies have snow on the ground right now?
The snowpack is pretty much nonexistant east of the Rockies. It is going to have to start snowing in many areas over the next couple of weeks for the cold air to have any teeth. If the snowpack does not materialize the arctic airmasses will modify very quickly. I know this because I lived many years in the Plains. However, the teleconnections would indicate that it will stay cold east of the Rockies for much of December. The NAO and AO indicies are forecasted to stay in negative territory. The PNA is forecasted to be slightly positive. This "should" correlate to more cold outbreaks east of the Rockies. From studying the models, it would appear that this upcoming winter will be one that could be very changeable. It seems like we have a very active -PNA pattern with mild air across much of the US (Nov) or the non-active +PNA which would favor more cold. This general trend could flip back and forth a few times this winter. I am banking on a continuation of the weak to moderate ENSO event as well, although I am not sure how much of an impact it will have for the overall jet stream pattern. Typically, a split flow is common during El Nino winters with the subtropical jet becoming more active and the polar jet being displaced further north than average. When the two jet streams phase, we could see an increased likelihood of cyclogenesis along the East Coast.
What's your latest first freeze ever? I would guess not too deep into December. Ours is something like December 8th I believe. But I'd guess the only place to not see a freeze by New Year's would be along the gulf coast, Florida and coastal California. I just checked the Central Park data and only two lows in the 30's this month and 3 in October, talk about mild.
I can't find the date but I read that the average first freeze is 11/8 (for Newark, NJ about 5 miles west of Manhattan) so I imagine its probably a few days after that for NYC. There's no sub-32F temps in the 7-day forecast but they're in the 15-day forecast (which isn't too reliable). I'd be happy if Winter stayed like this.
Here in Minnesota, the neighbor was plowing a field tonite and combines are still getting stuck in the low spots.
Most years, after Armistice/Veteran's Day ( Nov11) it is "iffy" due to frost in the ground.
December 1 is the first day fish houses are allowed on lakes.
I doubt there will be any on the lakes come Tuesday.
Ya, it is mild now. However, I see the cold gaining some strength over the next week or so. By early December (before the 10th) I am expecting one possible arctic outbreak. We will see...
We just had our first frost of the season here in Vancouver last night.....it is almost a month later than average (November 5th is our average for the first frost). It seems that many areas are having unusually mild weather....
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Until then, I take the GFS as mostly fantasy after the day 5-7 time period
