Fall 2021 Weather Thread (Louisville, direction, climate, snow)

[chicagogeorge]

Originally Posted by Ed's Mountain

Finally. But how long will it last for?

That's the $64000 dollar question. Not taking into consideration the AO and NAO or any SSW/Polar Vortex disruption the current SST configuration would likely favor western troughs and eastern ridges right? Moderate full basin La Nina and a Cool Blob in the North Pacific.






Polar Vortex disruption might be the key to any early season Arctic outbreaks somewhere over North America (likely the eastern 2/3rds)

[Botev1912]

Originally Posted by Ed's Mountain

Atmospheric river conditions setting up over SW BC and western WA tonight and tomorrow thanks to double-barrel lows in the Gulf of Alaska. Snow level dropping to 1300 m so the skiers will be happy this time. The AR angle of attack is such that Victoria will not benefit from its usual rain shadow effect: up to 50 mm of rain possible here.


Source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

Interestingly, Seattle got very little rain during the last event - 0.32" on Sunday and 0.16" on Monday. But this October has felt more like November.

[Winterbeard]

Few days coming up with highs in the low 70's. I'll take it.

Would prefer those lows a little lower overnight, but 55 is fine, I guess.

[chicagogeorge]

Not autumn but I have to get excited about this analog map December




and there is evidence that there will be continued stress on the Polar Vortex as we go through November

[Isleofpalms85]

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

Not autumn but I have to get excited about this analog map December




and there is evidence that there will be continued stress on the Polar Vortex as we go through November

The Midwestern United States is about to become the new Antarctica lol, a cold lifeless dust bowl, enjoy

[PGweather]

Backyard observations for the week of October 17th, 2021:

Record high: 27°C (81°F) in 1949
Av high 14°C (57°F)
Av low: 7°C (45°F)
Record low: -9°C (16°F) in 1978

Sunrise: 0742 Sunset: 1840

SUN October 17: Variable clouds
High 14°C (57°F), low 7°C (45°F)

MON October 18: Mainly sunny
High 14°C (57°F), low 5°C (41°F)

TUE October 19: Mainly sunny
High 22°C (72°F), low 3°C (37°F)

WED October 20: Overcast
High 20°C (68°F), low 8°C (46°F)

THU October 21: Rain, 8mm (0.31")
High 17°C (63°F), low 10°C (50°F)

FRI October 22: Isolated showers, trace
High 10°C (50°F), low 4°C (39°F)

SAT October 23: Isolated showers, trace
High 9°C (48°F), low 2°C (36°F)

[PGweather]

Originally Posted by Isleofpalms85

The Midwestern United States is about to become the new Antarctica lol, a cold lifeless dust bowl, enjoy

You don't see many places in Antarctica with 4-6 months of 80+ degree weather.

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by Isleofpalms85

The Midwestern United States is about to become the new Antarctica lol, a cold lifeless dust bowl, enjoy

Not a chance.

[chicagogeorge]

https://twitter.com/Skilling/status/...985257473?s=20










PDO is now decidedly negative





Brian Brettschneider created two maps showing the correlations between the winter PDO index and winter temps and precip. These maps show the R-values.






https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/...461640195?s=20

[Isleofpalms85]

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

https://twitter.com/Skilling/status/...985257473?s=20










PDO is now decidedly negative





Brian Brettschneider created two maps showing the correlations between the winter PDO index and winter temps and precip. These maps show the R-values.






https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/...461640195?s=20

If I’m reading those maps correctly it looks like a long cold winter for the eastern two thirds of the United States right?