Winter Storm December 7-10, 2018 (snowfall, days, city, most)

[Cambium]

Still 1 week away but GFS has been hinting at the possibility since few days ago.


Instead of doing individual city guesses I did sectionals. Lets have some fun.


Which area will get the most SNOW from this storm..

[Cambium]

Poll closes December 5th so you have time. Obviously nobody knows or has an idea at this point.


All we will do is show what the models are showing on each update.


The storm will be coming from the south and Gulf of Mexico. It's what it does from there that we don't know, how much precip is involved, and how much cold air is where..


Latest GFS shows this Sunday afternoon the 9th. (9 days away). Northern VA, Philly area gets hammered with 10"+ snowstorm.

[Cambium]

So the latest Euro12z model has this for the upper levels 2 days before the storm. Ummmm, can you be anymore flatter?? Fast Flat Flow across the East.


Guess what happens to any storm forming down south with this flow...




Yup... Down and Out.


You can get an idea where the storm is going by looking at the Upper levels before the surface maps.


This is the surface map Sunday afternoon. Storm comes from the Pacific, across Texas, across the gulf states, but instead of coming up the coast, it just exits North Carolina and out to sea


Little snow for DC area but not much precip north of that 540 Rain/Snow line.

[speagles84]

I hope for 2, but after watching Bernies periscope, I'm not confident in anything

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by speagles84

I hope for 2, but after watching Bernies periscope, I'm not confident in anything

Ohh, I wanna see. Will look for it now.


Check out the new GFS18z. Would give you snow to mix to snow


Cuts the storm inland from the south then new coastal storm forms off Virginia than off the coast.


I need this storm to start cutting Northeast around Georgia then come up the coast.

[LKJ1988]

Won't do much for FL with no rain to speak of in my area.

[arcleo]

The models seem to tell that 2 will get the most, although 1 also gets quite a bit. I'll wait a few more days and see.

[Cambium]

Wow at all 3 main models now. Euro decides to turn up the coast. Will post maps later

[ComeCloser]

2, 3, 4 & 5 will get rain for the most part. Anything North of the Merritt Parkway in Connecticut (some of 2 and all of 1) will definitely get the most snow, although sometimes Mother Nature will throw us a curve ball and have VA & DC get hit hardest while the Northern areas get a flurry if anything. Overall, it seems to be bee-lining out to sea.

I hate snow. Let it go sailing please.

[Cambium]

Remember...these are forecasts! But forecasts will start to reflect what these models show now since we're 7 days away.


New Euro12z brings the storm up the coast. See the difference in where the snowfall is now? VS the storm staying down south.


I drew the track in black.





Here is the snowfall total from that update:

REGION #3 would win with most snow. Virginia.

Source:




Close up

Source:



The Euro EPS(Ensembles) don't agree. It says the storm stays SOUTH and doesn't come up the coast.


Bottom line.... Storm still on the map for next weekend... just don't know where it goes.


One sure thing is it will rain in the southern states end of this week


Here's the latest GFS. Puts the storm near SC/NC border Sunday 7pm and OTS. Stays south with the storm and no snow around except for mountains of NC.